Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/12/01

A COUPLE DIFFERENCES IN MDLS COMPARED TO ACARS/SATELLITE. STG JET MOVG E OFF CHINA ACTUALLY 20KTS STRONGER THAN MDLS SUGGEST PER ACARS. SECOND..ONLY THE AVN APPEARS TO PICK UP WK ROTATION OVR NE WA THAT ARE RMNS OF OLD SFC LOW...AND MOVES THAT W INTO THE PGTSND REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOTH ETA/NGM SEEM TO MISS THIS...HOWEVER THE MM5 PCPN FIELD FM THE 12Z RUN INDICATING SOME MOISTURE MAINLY FM THE CASCD CREST EWD WITH THIS. SPLIT FLOW EVOLVING OVR CWA TODAY WITH UPR LOW CENTERED JUST W OF THE CA/OR BORDER...BEGIN FED BY A 80-90KT NLY JET. FLOW SPLITS UPSTREAM NR YUKON/NRN B.C. SECOND BRANCH OF JET EJECTING TWD THE SSE INTO MONTANA/ROCKY MTNS. THIS SPLIT RESULTS IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OVR CWA TODAY. THAT COMBINED WITH BETTER INITIALIZED AVN AND WK CIRCULATION OVR NE WA MAY ENHANCE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS OVR CWA TODAY INTO EVENING. ALSO...INSTBY WITHIN THE ESE FLOW AROUND THE MAIN UPR LOW ENHANCING LOWER LVL MOISTURE ALG THE CASCADE CREST TODAY. OTHWS MDLS OK THRU 48 HRS WITH INCRG DRY NELY SFC GRADS BY MON TO PROVIDE NICE SPREAD IN TX/TN. XPCT MON NIGHT TO BE QUITE COLD WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS NXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. OTHWS NO CHANGES. QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 100 SEA 100 OLM 100

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL.



...UPDATED...

LOOKS LIKE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS VORT RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KS IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES DAMPING OUT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH...DESPITE NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS...LACK OF MIXING AND INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS IS ACTUALLY ALLOWING THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE HAYS AREA. THOUGHT THAT MID FEB SUN AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN WOULD ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE...BUT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THUS FAR. AREA AIRCRAFT REPORTS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS DECK IS SOME 2000 FT THICK REGIONWIDE. AS FOR AREAS NORTH OF SFC TROUGH...ONE THING IS FOR SURE...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH MORE GIVEN SFC WIND DIRECTIONS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH VIS TRENDS.

AS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...THE FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDESPREAD AS MOIST SE SFC FLOW PERSISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF A KINGMAN TO ICT LINE WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXISTS. IN FACT SOME VIS REPORTS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS HARVEY...MCPHERSON AND MARION COUNTIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC TROUGH. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND IT MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL KS BASED ON TRENDS IN THE NEXT 60 TO 90 MINS. WILL ALSO TRIM MAX TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS DEPENDANT ON SFC DEWPOINT ADVECTION.

CO

.ICT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092-