Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/26/01

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. RAIN MAX FROM 00Z TO 06Z WELL HANDLED BY AVN AND DUE TO GOOD OMEGA...HIGH RH AND MOST IMPORTANTLY GOOD DIVERGANCE ALOFT. THE DIVERGANCE AND OMEGA WANE AFTER 06Z SO EXPECT A FALL OFF IN THE RAIN RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS GOES ALONG NICELY WITH OUR RAIN LOCAL HEAVY TO MONDAYS PERIODS OF RAIN.

NO HOPE FOR SUN AS NEW AVN AGREES WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND BRINGS MAIN LOW INTO CALIFORNIA BITE AND LETS IT SPIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A VARYING MIX OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. SO IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A VARYING CHANCE OF RAIN. PROBABLY LESS SO WITH TIME AS SYSTEM SPINS ITSELF OUT.

THURSDAY FLOW FINALLY TURNS WEST AND PUSHES EVERYTHING OUT.

WSW LOOKS GOOD ACARS SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 6000 FEET SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING AT A NICE RATE BUT IT WILL TRAIL OFF AROUND SUNRISE.

FLS DOING WELL WITH REPORTS OF STREET PONDING THROUGHOUT L.A. BASIN AND VALLEYS. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW MELT COMBINING WITH RAIN FALL BUT RIGHT NOW ALL RIVERS ARE DOING WELL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

LAX +865. RORKE.

.LAX...WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWLAX ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSLAX ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSLAX.



.OVERVIEW... A FEW DAYS AGO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE --WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORE SPLIT CANADIAN GSM-- INDICATED THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WAS IN STORE... A CONSOLIDATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS WAS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SERIES OF MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WA BEGINNING WED OR THU. YESTERDAYS MODELS --AGAIN EXCEPT THE MORE SPLIT CANADIAN-- BACKED OFF TO ONE GOOD SYSTEM ON THU. NOW ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE SPLIT/WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THOUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SW CANADA AS SYSTEMS MOVE INTO CA. THE TREND IS NOT A GOOD ONE FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK BUILT UP. ACARS DATA OFF CENTRAL CA SHOW A VERY STRONG SRN STREAM AS A 140 KT 300 MB JET DIGS INTO THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF KMRY. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE EFFECT OF MAINTAINING THE CUT OFF LOW EVEN FARTHER W THAN THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SLOWING AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS INTO WRN WA EVEN MORE THAN THE NEW GUIDANCE INDICATES. THIS MORNING WILL USE THE AVN IN THE SHORT TERM AND A BLEND OF THE MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM... THE AIR MASS IS DRIER AND COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER COLD NIGHTS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...BUT SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST THAT HAS THIS WELL COVERED.

.EXTENDED... THE MRF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER WITH THE WED/WED NIGHT SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING ABSOLUTELY NO PCPN IN WRN WA AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE ECMWF BASED ON A 12Z INITIALIZATION AND THE NEW 00Z CANADIAN GSM SHOW ENOUGH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN ON THE COAST. PCPN WITH THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM IS LIGHTER IN THE NEW RUNS AS THE INCOMING FRONT SPLITS WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE INCOMING OCCLUSION MOVING INTO OREGON. TIMING IS ALSO 12 HRS OR MORE SLOWER. POST FRONTAL OROGRAPHIC FLOW LATER FRI IS ANEMIC AND PCPN LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS RELEGATED TO INCOMING DEFORMATION ZONES FROM THE SOUTH IN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...THAT MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO WA. WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED BY BACKING OFF ON PCPN AND CLOUDS WED...INCREASING CLOUDS LATE ON THU...THEN RA CHANGING TO SHOWERS FRI. NEXT SAT/SUN MAY BE QUITE DRY PER THE CANADIAN MODEL...BUT WILL ONLY BACK OFF A BIT ON THE PCPN CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALL POPS ZERO ALBRECHT

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HEAVY SWELL.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL.