Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/27/01

.OVERVIEW... THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US IS SPLIT WITH A RIDGE OVER WA AND A CUT OFF LOW SW OF KSAN. ALL MODELS SHIFT THE CA CUT OFF LOW EWD INTO THE DESERT SW FRI WHILE TAKING THE MID LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER A CLOSE CALL WITH A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE LATE WED...WRN WA WILL FINALLY GET A LITTLE PCPN AS A STRONGER YET SPLITTING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT OR FRI. BUT THEN IN THE LONGER RANGE...ALL OF THE MODELS PUT WA BACK INTO A RIDGE FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. MODELS APPEAR REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED IN THE PACIFIC. WILL USE THE MESOETA IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE AVN/MRF IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A 6-7 KFT FREEZING LEVEL WITH A DEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO 4000 FEET. LOW LEVEL NLY GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH AND THE AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY SHALLOW MORNING FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY GONE BY 18Z EVEN AT KOLM...LIKE MON MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 24 HRS AGO...EASTERLIES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURFACING DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION. SO WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTN. WHILE THE INTERIOR LOOKS DRY ON WED WITH LITTLE MORE THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE BRUSHED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 140W. KUIL COULD SEE SOME PM SPRINKLES AS SHOWN BY THE 06Z MESOETA AND 00Z AVN. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES THERE TOWARD MOS.

.EXTENDED... NEXT SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WRN WA THU NIGHT/FRI PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL BACK OFF ON TIMING AND POPS THU WITH SLOWER/MORE SPLIT SYSTEM. IN FACT THU COULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE INTERIOR AS THIS INCOMING TROUGH STRENGTHENS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. AFTER FRI PM POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT WITH A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SUN AND MON LOOK DRY AS A CUT OFF LOW LURKS WELL OFF CENTRAL CA AND RIDGING BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER WA.

KUIL 003 KSEA 001 KOLM 001 ALBRECHT

.SEW...NONE.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL.



.OVERVIEW... THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US IS SPLIT WITH A RIDGE OVER WA AND A CUT OFF LOW SW OF KSAN. ALL MODELS SHIFT THE CA CUT OFF LOW EWD INTO THE DESERT SW FRI WHILE TAKING THE MID LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER A CLOSE CALL WITH A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE LATE WED...WRN WA WILL FINALLY GET A LITTLE PCPN AS A STRONGER YET SPLITTING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT OR FRI. BUT THEN IN THE LONGER RANGE...ALL OF THE MODELS PUT WA BACK INTO A RIDGE FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. MODELS APPEAR REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED IN THE PACIFIC. WILL USE THE MESOETA IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE AVN/MRF IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A 6-7 KFT FREEZING LEVEL WITH A DEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO 4000 FEET. LOW LEVEL NLY GRADIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH AND THE AIR MASS IS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY SHALLOW MORNING FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY GONE BY 18Z EVEN AT KOLM...LIKE MON MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 24 HRS AGO...EASTERLIES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURFACING DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION. SO WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTN. WHILE THE INTERIOR LOOKS DRY ON WED WITH LITTLE MORE THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE BRUSHED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 140W. KUIL COULD SEE SOME PM SPRINKLES AS SHOWN BY THE 06Z MESOETA AND 00Z AVN. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES THERE TOWARD MOS.

.EXTENDED... NEXT SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WRN WA THU NIGHT/FRI PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL BACK OFF ON TIMING AND POPS THU WITH SLOWER/MORE SPLIT SYSTEM. IN FACT THU COULD BE RATHER MILD IN THE INTERIOR AS THIS INCOMING TROUGH STRENGTHENS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. AFTER FRI PM POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT WITH A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SUN AND MON LOOK DRY AS A CUT OFF LOW LURKS WELL OFF CENTRAL CA AND RIDGING BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER WA.

KUIL 003 KSEA 001 KOLM 001 ALBRECHT

.SEW...NONE

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL.



LOOKING AT 12Z CHS RAOB AND RECENT CAE ACARS SOUNDINGS...AND MORN TEMP TRENDS...WL UPDATE TO RAISE TOD MAX SLIGHTLY. SATL INDICATING SOME THINNING OF UPPR CLDS OVR OUR REGN...BUT PREMISE FOR INCR CLDS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR LTR THIS AFTN.

.CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE.

DCM