AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
AFDCAE 1021 AM EST SUN MAR 11 2001
DISC: 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES TRYING TO HOLD ON ACRS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. CDFNT TO OUR NW ACRS THE OH RVR VALLEY AND LOW
PRES ACRS NRN TX.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLDS THIS MORNING ACRS THE SRN PTN OF THE
STATE...MAINLY FM CAE SWD. AREA OF CLDS APPEARS TO BE MOVG NNEWD.
SKIES CONT TO BE MSTLY SUNNY ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE
RISEN NICELY ACRS THE N WITH PLENTY OF SUN...A BIT SLWR TO RISE ACRS
THE RN PTN. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS ALONG WITH MORNING ACARS
DATA...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WL REACH THE LWR/MID 60S ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WL LWR TEMPS SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST SKY
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY. WL GO MS TO THE N AND PC FOR THE S FOR THE AFT.
WINDS WL CONT TO BE LIGHT ACRS THE AREA. MORE CLDS SHOULD MOV IN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYS.
FCSTID = 77
CAE 66 49 62 56 / 0 40 100 70
AGS 66 51 63 57 / 0 40 100 70
SSC 66 49 63 56 / 0 40 100 70
OGB 67 51 63 57 / 0 40 100 70
.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
LCV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
AFDBTV 1045 AM EST SUN MAR 11 2001
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS.
CF TO CROSS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESS RIDES
TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. FROPA AT BTV APPEARS TO BE AROUND 21-22Z
TODAY. GOOD SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO BE LOCATED BEHIND THE CF AND ACRS
THE FA INTO TONITE. AN AREA OF HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS THE GREAT
LKS REGION AND ONT TODAY AND THEN START TO BUILD INTO THE FA FROM THE
WEST TONITE.
12Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M20S-M30S TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE 35-40 DEG F TODAY. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HI TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY
BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. SFC WINDS TO BECOME WEST AT 5-15 KTS
BEHIND CF TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD WINDS BASED ON THIS AND
CURRENT OBS TRENDS. PLENTY OF MID-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE
FA TODAY BEFORE THE FROPA...THEN SOME DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY.
PRETTY GOOD LOW-LVL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
TODAY. PW VALUES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.5" WITH CF.
RUC CRANKING OUT LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.20" OF PCPN TODAY ACRS THE
FA. RUC ALSO INDICATING THAT -RA POSSIBLE ACRS THE CHAMP VLY TODAY...
BUT 12Z ACARS SOUNDING INTO BTV INDICATES ATMOSPHERE PLENTY COLD
ENUFF ALOFT FOR SN.
SFC OBS SHOW THAT -SN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACRS THE CHAMP VLY
EASTWARDS THIS MORNING. PCPN STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN FA TODAY. WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS AND STILL
INDICATE GENERALLY 1-2" MOSTLY ACRS THE HIR TRRN TODAY (WITH LOCALLY
GREATER AMTS IN THE HIGHEST TRRN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). WARMER
GROUND TEMPS MAY INHIBIT SN ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS THOUGH. WILL TRY
AND HOLD UPDATED ZONES TO ALLOW PCPN TO OVERSPREAD AS MUCH OF THE FA
AS POSSIBLE.
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE (STRENGTHENING
WITH TIME TODAY). LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME HI BY LATER TODAY
ACRS THE FA. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DRY UP ACRS THE FA TONITE
WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT. MID-LVLS TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA TONITE. COLDEST
CORE OF AIR APPEARS TO SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TONITE. PCPN
(-SHSN) TO LINGER ACRS MOSTLY THE HIR TRRN INTO EARLY TONITE. FEW
TWEAKS TO PCPN AND WIND WORDING FOR THE SECOND PERIOD BASED ON
EXPECTED WX TODAY.
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP A LIL AFTER 11 AM.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY