AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
AFDBTV 1003 PM EST TUE MAR 13 2001
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS.
STORM SYS TO TRACK ACRS ONT/QUE TONITE...AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FIRST STORM SYS TO CONT TO MOVE
ACRS QUE ON WED. GOOD SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ON
WED. WK RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON WED
AS WELL. UPR TROF TO PIVOT ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW TONITE.
21Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE U20S-L30S TONITE. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE U20S AS WELL. THESE READINGS LOOK GOOD BUT ARE NOT
TOO FAR FROM WHERE MESONET OBS ARE ATTM. WIDENED UP A BUNCH OF THE
RANGES IN THE LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR TONITE. SFC WINDS TO BECOME SW AT
5-15 KTS TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS TRENDS. SOME AMT OF MID-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS THE FA
TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA THOUGH.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONITE (BECOMING STRONG ON WED WITH 40-55KT H85
JET ACRS THE FA). H85 TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY
AROUND 03Z TONITE. 950 MB WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA BY 06Z TONITE. PCPN SHOULD BE ALL SN FOR THE REST OF THE
OVRNITE PERIOD HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE UPDATED ZFP. PW VALUES ACRS
THE FA TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 0.50" BY LATER TONITE. RUC CRANKING
OUT LESS THAN 0.25" OF LIQUID FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNITE. 88D
MOSAIC/BUFCAN SHOWS STEADY PCPN MOVING NE OUT OF THE FA ATTM. HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO SCT/CHC ACRS MOST AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNITE.
LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS WITH LK ENHANCEMENT
OFF LK ONT POSSIBLE. THIS WILL JIVE BETTER WITH ALY ZONES TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL.
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND WED. ACARS SOUNDINGS IN
AND OUT OF KBTV AT 2130Z...2230Z AND 0230Z HAVE SHOWN THE COOLING
ALOFT TAKING PLACE TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS
THE FA FOR WED (LEAST ACRS SRN VT). LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME HI
ACRS THE FA ON WED. 12Z FOUS DATA HINTING AT WINDEX EVENT FOR WED.
MID-LVL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY START TO DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON WED.
PW VALUES TO BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR WED. ABOUT ANOTHER 0.1"
OF LIQUID ON TAP FOR WED. LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER AND CHC POPS
ACRS SRN VT STILL LOOK GOOD FOR WED. HAVE BUMPED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP A TAD WITH WINDEX SHSN EXPECTED.
WORK ZONES ERRONEOUSLY ISSUED UNDER ZFP PIL...SO COR ISSUED EARLIER.
REAL WORK ZONES OUT NOW UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL UPDATED ZFP ASAP.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY