Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/22/01

SIGNS OF A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER OVER VTU/LAX COUNTIES TONIGHT. RAWS SENSORS AT BEVERLY HILLS (1250 FEET) AND MALIBU HILLS (1575 FEET) BOTH MUCH COOLER (15 TO 20 DEG) AND MORE HUMID THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SIMILAR CAN BE SAID FOR BUR AND VNY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARINE INVERSION ABOUT 1200 FEET DEEP AT VBG AND 1600 FEET DEEP AT NKX. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING DEPTHS TO THE MARINE LAYER... FROM NEAR 1200 FEET AT LAX...UP TO 1800 FEET AT SNA. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH A LARGE CLEAR AREA FROM THE COAST OUT TO 100 TO 150 MILES OFF THE COAST. BELIEVE THIS CLEAR AREA WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT. ANY COASTAL AREAS WHICH HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING (PARTS OF SBA/VTU COUNTY COASTS) SHOULD CLOUD OVER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE EVENING MODEL RUNS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES. A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO CA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THU. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE THU NITE INTO FRI. MESO-ETA CROSS SECTIONS ALONG THE COAST SHOW THE GOOD LOW LEVEL INVERSION FROM TODAY WILL WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT INTO THU. THIS SHOULD PALY A ROLE IN WHAT KIND OF HI TEMPS WE CAN EXPECT ON THU. THE NGM WAS A BIT WARMER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE ETA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION CONSIDERING HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING OFF SO MUCH THIS EVENING. TEMPS IN CURRENT FORECAST WITHIN REASON...BUT OVER THE VALLEYS HI TEMPS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING 70 DEG. AM INCLINED TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THU. MARINE LAYER TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...AND EVEN WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL HELP TO TEMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES IN TEMPS. MAY EVEN ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR FRI MANY AREAS. LOOK FOR A ZONE UPDATE BY 945 PM.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK TO FLAT RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE DISTRICT. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SAT THRU MON...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

LAX 0000. SIRARD

.LAX...NONE.



...SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CLEAR TO NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

...DISCUSSION... AVN/MRF PREFERRED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WED EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BASE OF THE MARINE INVERSION JUST BLO 2000 FT WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND 2500 FT...CONSISTENT WITH COAMPS FORECASTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEEPENING IS SHOWN BY THE COAMPS TO 2500 TO 3000 FT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH MINOR DECR IN HEIGHTS ALF ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF A WK SHORTWAVE TODAY. CLRG WL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW TODAY AND LIKELY NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. A LTL FASTER CLRG IS EXPECTED FRI...BUT BEACHES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW TO CLR.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WK WLYS WL UNDERCUT THE MID AND HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK CNTRD ALG THE W CST OF NOAM. FOR SW CA...THIS WL CONTINUE THE MARINE LYR PRESENCE W OF THE MTNS AND BRING OCCASIONAL PDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE PASSAGE OF WK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WK-NDT WLY FLOW ALF. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BLO ADV LVLS...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE...HENCE THE "BREEZY AT TIMES" WORDING FOR THE DESERTS. GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NR SEASONAL NORMALS XCP SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL MTNS AND DESERTS.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN



CUR ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LVL WNDS A LTL STRONGER THAN MODEL SOUNDING. WL UP WNDS IN ZNS TO 15/20. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIR GUST FOR A FEW HRS AS WNDS MIX OUT. WL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. OTRW FCST LKS OK.

FCSTID = 25 CAE 68 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 5 AGS 70 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 5 SSC 69 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 5 OGB 70 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 5

.CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE.

CDL