Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/27/01

...SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS FROM A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING ALONG WITH LESS COASTAL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...DISCUSSION... SKIES CLEARED OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO OVER SOME COASTAL SECTIONS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. BKN-OVC SKIES LINGERED OVER MOST OF INLAND SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON. ACARS DATA OVER SAN FROM 20Z SHOWED THE BASE OF THE INVERSION NEAR 3500 FEET AND THE TOP ON THE INVERSION AT 7100 FEET. WHILE VERY DEEP...IT IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS MORNING. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE SHALLOWER TO THE NORTH OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE WHERE BETTER CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS AROUND PT CONCEPTION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE MESOETA SPINS UP AN INTERMITTENT WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK BELOW THE MARINE LAYER TOMORROW...BUT BE QUITE A BIT WARMER ABOVE IT AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM AND MARINE LAYER SHRINKS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK BUILDING RIDGE.

WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS REACH 582 DM. TEMPS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z 120 AVN SHOWS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL...BUT CONTRASTS WITH THE MRF AND ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO MENTION IN THE LATTER DAYS OF THE EXTENDED SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO.

SAN 000

.SAN...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSSAN.

MOEDE



...SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS FROM THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CLEARING AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE DEVELOPS.

...DISCUSSION... SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WAS VERY DEEP...AND AN ONTARIO ACARS SOUNDING FROM 1137Z SHOWED A VERY HIGH INVERSION BASE OF 6800 FEET...WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 8500 FEET. 700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY (TEMPS FALL FROM 7C TO 3C) WILL WEAKEN THE INVERSION...BRINGING CLEARING TO SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH SUCH A DEEP MOIST LAYER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER IS SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOCAL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY WONT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT TO BRING OCCASIONAL WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVERALL TREND THIS WEEK IS FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER FOR LESS MORNING CLOUDS...MORE AFTERNOON SUN...AND WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS.

SURFS UP AT THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES TODAY FROM A BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST.

SAN 000

.SAN...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXMWSSAN.

MOEDE



MINOR UPDATE FOR TIMING OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS AS SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. 00Z SOUNDING WELL MIXED TO 11K' MSL. WAA INVERSION ALOFT INCR AND DROPPING TO NEAR 15K', WITH LOWEST LAYER WINDS TURNING N, PER 0204 AIRCRAFT ASCENT SOUNDING JUST E OF BOI. WINDS ALSO DROPPING OFF WITH IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY DOWN TO 10KTS. WITH WARMING ALOFT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING STG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SLACKENING WINDS. CURRENT MINS LOOKING RIGHT ON TARGET WITH UPPER TEENS MTNS AND 20S VALLEYS. BROAD BAROCLINIC BAND OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ELONGATED FROM 45N,135W TO 30N,160W WITH SATL PW .50-.75" NEAR LEADING EDGE. LOOPING SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION BUT RATHER CONTINUED BROAD ZONE SO NO SIG SLOWING EXPECTED FROM THAT. SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WINDS CONTINUE BROAD AREA OF 130KTS ON THE COLD SIDE FROM 40N,160W INTO THE RIDGE AT 50N,135W SO WITH THAT SPEED MAX LIFTING ENE THE SYSTEM'S FASTER PROGGED MOVEMENT INTO THE NW AND BOISE CWFA SEEMS OK. 00Z ETA NOW AS FAST AS 12Z AVN, AND ZIPPY 00Z AVN IS FASTER THAN ALL 00Z/PRIOR 12Z RUNS. SO WILL NEED CHANCE POPS IN SE OREGON FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC. NGM IS MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH 0.01-0.25" THROUGHOUT SE OREGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH NGM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH PCPN MAX OFF MOUTH OF COLUMBIA RIVER DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM ZIPS ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY PCPN EXCEPT SNOW FOR BRUNDAGE/BOGUS. MAY NEED A SNOW ADVY FOR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5K' TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 3" A GOOD BET MOST SPOTS UP TO 5-6" FAVORED WEST FACING SLOPES AND PEAKS. TIMING OF AVN PREFERRED SO DECREASING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT PACKAGE TEMPS FINE.

.BOI...NONE. POTENTIAL SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND WASHINGTON/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES AND MAYBE BOISE COUNTY IDAHO.