AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFDABR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
945 PM CDT THU APR 5 2001
HAVE A WARY EYE ON SHRA IN SW SD...AND THEIR EVENTUAL TREK INTO THE
CWA. SHRA DEVELOPING IN FAVORED AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK UPSLOPE...WITH AID FROM H3-H2 UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LEAD S/W
AHEAD OF MAIN TROF IN SW CONUS. SHRA ALSO DEVELOPING IN USUAL
LOCATION AT TOP OF 1000-850 THETA-E RIDGE. FEEL THESE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WILL LOSE A LITTLE INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
AWAY FROM BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. EVEN STILL...RAISED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY FAR SOUTH...AND ADDED A 30 POP FOR NW ZONES. OTHER
PBLM IS FOG/LOW CEILINGS. WEAK SFC HIGH ERODED HOLE IN ST
DECK...BUT THIS IS FILLING QUICKLY WITH CEILINGS FALLING AND FOG
FORMING PER FOG PRODUCT. WEAK 1000-850 WINDS...HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...AND LOTS O' WATER ON THE GROUND WILL ONLY HELP FOG
SETTLE IN. BUMPED MINS UP A BIT MOST AREAS WILL CLOUDS FILLING IN.
FIRST FEW PEEKS AT NEW ETA SHOWS THE BIG SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK FOR
TMR NIGHT. ACARS DATA THIS EVE SHOWS 155 KT JET NOW ON DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF SHARP TROF...SO RAPID MOVEMENT/CYCLOGENESIS TO BEGIN SOON.
AS PER PVS DISCUSSION...WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE AS TERIFFIC MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS SYSTEM.
WILL SVR OUTBREAK TO THE SOUTH PLAY A ROLE?
.ABR...NONE.
BINAU