Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 04/10/01

NO UPDATES...

FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THIS WILL BE THE INTERESTING PERIOD OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST. A COLD UNSTABLE TROUGH WILL DESCEND UPON THE CWA TODAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT...-30C...WILL INTERACT WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG APRIL SUN AND POSITIVE OMEGAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP BELOW 0 AS THE DAY WEARS ON. RECENT ACARS DATA SHOWED THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 4000 FEET AND SNOW WILL FALL DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME HAIL. THE 12Z MESO-ETA SEEMS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LA COUNTY DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST POSITIVE OMEGAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL TODAY WITH THICKNESS BELOW 534.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO SHOWERY NATURE OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF DYNAMICS. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME GUSTY WINDS IN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ON NORTHERN SLOPES TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SUNSHINE PLUS WARMER THICKNESS WILL WARM THE TEMPERATURES A TAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE BEST TO WAIT SOME ON USING THOSE BATHING SUITS AND HEADING FOR THE BEACH...

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE REFERRED TO AS AN 'INSIDE SLIDER' WITH THE LOW CENTER DIVING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE CURRENT SOLUTION WOULD BRING ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AT LEAST ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MTNS AS WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY REGION FOR WED NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOWER THICKNESS AND COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANY HOPE OF A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK CRASHING TO THE GROUND.

FOR THE EXTENDED EXTENDED...THE WEEKEND WILL SEE MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW RETURN TO THE WEST WITH SLIGHT WARMING OVER THE CWA DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS.

LAX 630. SWEET.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).



YESTERDAYS/S HIGH TEMPS OVER MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND THE OHIO VALLEY LOOK LIKE AN AVERAGE JULY DAY. THINK THE WARM AIR WILL STAY DOWN THERE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...BUT THE MILD TEMPS ARE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF OF THE GROUND. 04UTC ACARS SOUNDING OVER MKE +12C AT 900MB. THAT WOULD BE LOW 70S AT THE SRUFACE IF THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME DRY ADIABATIC THIS AFTERNOON (AND LAKE MICHIGAN WASN/T THERE). WINDS ARE ERLY UP TO 900MB THERE...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET RID OF CLOUDS TOO QUICK. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD BE EVEN HIGHER FURTHER NORTH...SO THE QUESTION IS WILL WE GET SOME SUNSHINE TODAY? SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FOLLOW. HARD TO SAY IF SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP CLOUDS. THEY COULD JUST STAY TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. WILL STAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING AND BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE. 00UTC MODELS ARE QUICKER BRINGING IN RAIN TONIGHT...AND WILL BOOST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION AS SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES PLAN TO DO. 06UTC ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00UTC ETA...WHICH ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00UTC NGM. NCEP FAVORS A ETA/AVN COMPROMISE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

.GRB...NONE.

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