SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 915 AM THU APR 19 2001
MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...UP TO AROUND
6000 FEET ON 12Z VANDENBERG SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA OVER LA BASIN.
AN ORGANZIED BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF A VORT MAX CENTERED AT 33N/129W.
THIS HAS PROVIDED SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODELS NOW SWING VORT
MAX A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS...SO HAVE OPTED TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
WINDS ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY.
LATEST 12Z MESO-ETA SOLUTION HAS COLD UPPER LOW TRACKING DOWN THE
CENTRAL PART OF CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BIT
FURTHER INLAND THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. WHILE THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM...DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR AND DYNAMICS TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
LAX 002. GOMBERG.
.LAX...NONE.