AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
AFDMAF 345 AM CDT MON APR 30 2001
SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT. RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT AN AREA
OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WEST TO
NEAR SIERRA BLANCA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING SINCE MIDNIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COVERS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND THIS
WILL PROBABLY RETARD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES...
BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE MODELS INITIALIZED SO-SO THIS MORNING. THE ETA INITIALIZED A 250
MB JET EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR 22N/126W NORTHEAST ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. AIRCRAFT OBS
AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. HAVE LITTLE
FAITH IN THE EXISTENCE OF THIS PHANTOM JET...AND SEEING AS HOW THIS
FEATURE INFLUENCES THE MASS FIELD SOMEWHAT AROUND HERE...WE WILL
TREND TOWARD (WHAT WE THINK) IS A BETTER INITIALIZED AVN MODEL THIS
MORNING.
MID LEVEL THETAE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD THIN OUT ENOUGH BY
AFTERNOON TO ENABLE DECENT SENSIBLE HEATING...AND THIS ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF WDLY SCT TSRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET...PERHAPS A BIT LONGER. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREAS. OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. EARLY
MORNING GULF STRATUS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO TODAY...AND A BIT WARMER THAN
THAT TUESDAY.
REAL LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SAVE INCREASING TEMPS SOME ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKING FOR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS...INCLUDING A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE EVENTUAL LATITUDE OF THE CLOSED
GREAT BASIN LOW...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE EML. WISHFUL THINKING WILL
KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR NOW...BUT IF THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CLOSE TO CORRECT...THEN WE MAY GET NOTHING. STILL QUITE A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...STAY TUNED.
THAT'S A WRAP...LINEUP CARDS FOLLOW...70.
THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.
MAF 85/60/91/63 12-0
LSA 85/56/91/61 12-0
E41 85/61/90/63 12-0
6R6 87/61/90/65 12-0
MRF 80/50/84/52 32--
CNM 88/55/91/58 22-0
.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.