SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 930 PM PDT SUN MAY 6 2001
ANOTHER VERY QUIET EVENING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLEAR SKIES REPORTED AT ALL STATIONS CURRENTLY...WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SW OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND NEAR SAN DIEGO. THE MAIN CLOUD AREA IS SOUTH AND
WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND ATTM. SOME SMALL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS
ALSO NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES OFF THE OC COAST AND NEAR PALOS VERDES.
GRADIENTS ARE ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH TRENDING WEAKLY OFFSHORE. MARINE
LAYER REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW...AROUND 500 FEET AT LAX ACCORDING TO
ACARS...AND ABOUT 1200 FEET AT NKX. NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF A CATALINA
EDDY CURRENTLY...AND LATEST MESO-ETA ACTUALLY INDICATES WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY MORNING. GIVEN OFFSHORE TRENDS AND LACK
OF AN EDDY WOULD NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SRN CA
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...00Z VBG SOUNDING
N/A...BUT GIVEN OFFSHORE TREND OF SMX-BFL AND LACK OF CLOUDINESS
OFFSHORE WOULD EXPECT ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG NEAR THE
COAST...AS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FCST. GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION
AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS...DENSE FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NEW ETA IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD MONDAY...AND HOLDING POSITION TUE WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS. GRADIENTS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL
IN THE EARLY MORNINGS...BUT STILL AROUND 4 MB ONSHORE LAX-DAG IN
THE LATE AFTERNOONS. AVN SHOWS GRADIENTS MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY MORNINGS...AND ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE...ABOUT 2 MB LAX-DAG...IN
THE LATE AFTERNOONS. 950 MB TEMPS WARM UP QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY...
WITH SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING PREDICTED FOR TUE. THE VALLEYS...
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RATHER HOT MAX TEMPS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE TRICKY...AND DEPENDANT
ON EXACTLY HOW THE GRADIENTS DEVELOP EACH DAY. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
HIGHS FOR MON/TUE ALONE FOR NOW...BUT MID SHIFT MAY WANT TO ADJUST
THESE UPWARD DEPENDING ON OVERNIGHT GRADIENT TRENDS AND THE SOLUTIONS
FROM THE 06Z MODEL RUNS.
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
LAX 0000. JACOBSON
.LAX...NONE.