Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/08/01




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

AFDSAN 900 PM PDT MON MAY 7 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING VERY WARM WEATHER AGAIN 
TUESDAY. A GOOD SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE COMFORTABLE  
NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH 
WEAKENS.  

                            ...DISCUSSION...
FOG LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE ARE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE THIS 
EVENING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBS ARE 
INDICATING AN OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER ORANGE COUNTY WHICH 
COULD BE THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED 
OVER THE NORTHERN DESERT AREAS. COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS A PATCH 
OF LOW CLOUDS HEADING SE...THROUGH SANTA MONICA BAY TO SAN CLEMENTE 
ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...THE KNKX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED THE MARINE 
LAYER INTACT OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE 
EXTENDING UP SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE.

00Z ETA/AVN MODELS STILL SHOW THE PEAK OF THE RIDGING TONIGHT AND 
EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 
COOLER WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. AVN AND ETA BOTH SHOW THE OFFSHORE FLOW 
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER ORANGE COUNTY.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR WARMER 
TEMPS AND LESS CLOUDS/FOG OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND WARMER IN THE 
INLAND EMPIRE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER COASTAL 
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO EXTENSIVE WITH THE 
COVERAGE. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SOON.   

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

JAD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

AFDSEW 227 AM TUE MAY 8 2001

MDL INITIALIZATION TONIGHT SUGGESTS ALL MDLS A BIT TOO STG/FAST AGN
WITH PROPOGATION OF TROF IN N-CENTRAL PAC. COMPARING UA PLOT
FILES/ACARS TO PROGGED 30H WNDS W OF 145W SHOW MDLS 10-20KT TOO
STRONG WITH WLY JET W OF 145W. THAT SUGGESTS A BIT MORE AMPLIFICATION
(ALBEIT SLIGHT) OF RDG LATER THIS WEEK WHILE HOLDING BACK UPR TROF 
FOR WKND. IN SHORT TERM...ONLY REAL PROBLEM IS PASSING UPR TROF THIS
MORNING AND INCRG ONSHORE GRADS. LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION BHD TROF
THUS ONSHORE SFC GRADS WEAKER THAN EARLIER PROGGED FOR TODAY/WED.
RESULT OF THAT TOO WEAKEN RESPECTIVE PGTSND CONV ZOND TODAY.
NONETHELESS XPCT WK ZONE TO PUSH SWD THRU PGTSND BY EVENING. WK UPR
FLOW ALF AT 85H TO KEEP ZONE OVR METRO/KITSAP AREAS. WK RIDGING TO
FOLLOW FOR RMDR OF WK WITH HEIGHTS BTWN 565-573DM. THAT COUPLED WITH
INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR TO PROVIDE SOME MORNING ST FOLLOWED BY SUN.
.XTNDD...WK RIDGE TO PERSIST...WITH BANDS OF MID/UPR MSTR ENTRAINED
IN PREDOMINANT WLY FLOW TO PROVIDE PDS OF CLDS/SUN. PER AFORMENTIONED
INITIALIZATION...AND TREND OF MDL NOW TO HOLD BACK TROF YET "ANOTHER"
DAY... XPCT FUTURE MDL RUNS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...THUS LIKE AND
WILL CONTINUE FORTHCOMING DRY WKND. QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 310 SEA 410 OLM 200

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL