EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 300 AM PDT THU MAY 10 2001
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
...DISCUSSION...
SHORTER RANGE MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT IN SHOWING A WKLY
AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALG THE CA CST. THIS WL CONTINUE THE SLOW COOLING
TREND FOR SW CA INTO SAT. CSTL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED WITH
SLOW DEEPENING OF MARINE LYR ALSO OCCURRING AS EXPECTED. WED EVENING
ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BASE OF A STRONG MARINE INVERSION NR 1000
FT LAX TO 1400 FT SAN. MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW
DEEPENING...REACHING 1500 TO 2000 FT THIS MORNING. THIS IS
SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF
THE INLAND EMPIRE. 06Z ETA SHOWS A WKR CSTL EDDY TONIGHT WITH LTL
CHANGE IN MARINE LYR DEPTH...THEN SLIGHT DECR IN DEPTH AND A LTL
LESS INLAND PENETRATION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
EXTENDED...MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FAVORED SUN AND
BEYOND... MORE IN LINE WITH MRF ENSEMBLES PER PMDEPD. THIS WOULD KP
MTNS AND DESERTS A LTL WARMER THAN MRF MOS AND MARINE INFLUENCE A
LTL GREATER W OF THE MTNS. WK...LWR LATITUDE SRN STREAM SHOWN BY THE
MRF OVR THE CNTRL AND ERN PAC BETWEEN 30-35N FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS
PARTICULARLY DUBIOUS FOR MID MAY.
SAN 000
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO IL
AFDCHI 325 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THIS MORNING...AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE DOES INDEED SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS OVER
NORTHWEST IL. WILL USE MORNING WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THIS
PRECIP...USING RADAR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME FOR EXTENT OF
COVERAGE.
ETA/AVN CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/MESO-ETA ALSO SEEM TO CATCH ON TO THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. ETA/MESO-ETA DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THIS FEATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AVN PRECIP REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG ACTUAL COLD FRONT. BEST
MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA THROUGH 00Z FRI. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOW IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY HERE TOO...WITH CAPES IN THE 1500-3000
J/KG RANGE AND LITTLE CAPPING...BUT IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER
FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ACTUAL AVAILABLE ENERGY LIKELY TO BE
LESS. STILL...WITH BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AND WEAK WAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR LATER
TODAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL RAISE POPS A BIT IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THEM LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT PUSHING FRONT INTO ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY MORNING...AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 90 KNOT
UPPER JET POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD MOTION. THUS
LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO
BETTER MOISTURE FEED. NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY OUT LATE FRIDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POP FRIDAY EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY TODAY...WITH PRECIP AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. 06Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF RFD SHOWS 850
MB TEMP OF +14 WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80S. WILL BLEND
FWC/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE WARMER
NUMBERS FOR MINS TONIGHT. FWC/MAV CLOSE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR
COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
.CHI...NONE.
RATZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
AFDAPN 415 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2001
THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE...CHANCE/TIMING OF
RAINFALL.
MODEL COMMENT...DESPITE CONCERNS ABOUT LOSS OF ACARS DATA FOR THE 0Z
MODEL INPUT...COMPUTER MODELS ALL APPEARED TO VERIFY WELL WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH IOWA. MODELS ALL VERY
SIMILAR WITH ONLY THE AVN SHOWING A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE WITH A SHARPER
UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
TODAY/S FORECAST IS MINOR AS ETA/NGM MIX PREFERRED AND DIFFERENCE IS
ONLY AFTER THE 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED LAST NIGHT ABOUT AS FORECAST AND OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE LIGHTNING FOLLOWING
THE BEST LIFT ACROSS IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PRIMARILY
SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK ON FIRST PERIOD POPS DUE TO THE TOUGH TIME THE SHOWERS ARE
HAVING GETTING HERE.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUNSHINE SHOULD QUICKLY
SPARK CUMULUS CLOUDS SO WILL WORD PARTLY SUNNY. MOS/MAV
TEMPERATURES SEEM OPTIMISTIC WITHOUT FULL SUN...HOWEVER INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT LOWS UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WE START OFF WARM.
MODEL TRAJECTORIES ALSO SUPPORT SOME HIGHS OF 75-80. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MEET WITH BEST DAYTIME HEAT AND ANY BOUNDARIES OR LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT. MODEL ETA
SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED WITH CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND -4 LIFTED INDEX.
EXPECT PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN AS UNDER THE LOW WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL. UPPER JET AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS ALSO FAVOR HEAVY
RAINS.
FRIDAY...FRONT WILL BE OUT OVER THE THUMB AROUND 18Z. MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND MANY AREAS UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
WILL CONTINUE MORNING SHOWERS MENTION ACROSS THE EAST. PARTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES.
.APX...NONE.
HIRSCH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
AFDDTX 243 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2001
...UNSETTLED WX THRU FRIDAY...
PER THE NCEP DISCUSSION...ACARS DATA WAS NOT INGESTED INTO THE 00Z
RUN (IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR NEW RUC AND 06Z RUNS). INITIALIZATION
THIS MORNING WILL GO TO THE ETA WITH ONGOING MCS. OVERALL THE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR PRECIP BUT QUESTION REMAINS THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY.
TODAY...LETS FIRST DEAL WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AVN/ETA BLEND OF 850-300MB THICKNESS,
THERMAL WIND PATTERN AND Q-VECTORS TAKES CONVECTION INTO TWO
SEPARATE AREAS...THE SOUTHERN HALF DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST JUST
SLIPPING BY OUR CWA AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF THE CWA IN THE MIDDLE WITH
LITTLE PRECIP AS NOTED IN THE 3-6HR QPF FIELDS. IT APPEARS RH
FIELDS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MOCLOUDY DAY ALTHOUGH WE DO
EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY (CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL DO). MODEL INDICES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG, LI/S FROM 0C NEAR THE LAKE TO AOA -2C INLAND
ACROSS THE CWA, 0-6KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES WEAKEN THRU THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE H20/S GO OVER 1.25" AND 925/850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS (ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS
SOME OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WET BULB ZEROS BETWEEN 9-10K FEET DOES
POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS. SO POPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND WILL DISCUSS WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S FOR FINAL "ANSWER."
AT THE MOMENT...LEANING TOWARD A LOWER POP THAN IN CURRENT SET OF
ZONES (SCATTERED 40 POPS). MOS CONTINUES WITH THE UP TREND FOR
TEMPS...AND TRAJECTORY FORECAST WITH AOA +12 850 TEMPS WOULD BRING
SURF TEMPS TO 78-81F. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LOOKS MINIMAL WITH
+20KTS AT 950/925MB...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE.
TONIGHT...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH COUPLING 850-300
CONVERGENCE-DIVERGENCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD BRING RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPES 500-1000 J/KG WITH
LI/S 0C TO -3C. PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL ABOVE 1.25" WITH QPF
FIELDS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT FROM THE AVN/ETA/NGM. THE ETA IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP WITH AVN/NGM LAGGING BEHIND WITH FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT. THINK CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS AND HEAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA PER THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND
PATTERN. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS WITH "LIKELY" WORDING.
FRIDAY...SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR WX. IF THE ETA IS CORRECT THEN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
COULD SEE A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION WITH CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG AND
LI/S -4C. THE NGM/AVN ALSO SHOW A DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH LI/S
AND SWI/S -1C TO -3C. SINCE THE TIMING OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN...WE WILL FAVOR THE ETA/AVN BLEND SOLUTION AND KEEP CONVECTION
IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. NORTHERN CWA WILL SEE CAA AS
1000-500 THICKNESSES DROP QUICKLY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AS DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL CLEARING AS CAA AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
UNFOLDS. WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS INTO THE
40S. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUD COVER HANGS ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE AVN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE
NGM/ETA HANG TIGHT WITH CLOUD SHIELD. CURRENT SET OF ZONES LOOK
GREAT WITH TIMING AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING PATTERN. MOS
NUMBERS LOOK TO HIGH AND WILL LOWER THEM.
WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SATURDAY BUT QUESTIONS ARRIVE FOR
SUNDAY. PER THE AVN...WAA WITH RESULTANT OMEGA BRING LIGHT QPF
ACROSS. 500MB S/W SWINGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
WHICH WOULD GIVE SUPPORT FOR SHWRS. WE WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO LOOK
AT ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING CHANGES ON SUNDAY.
THANKS FOR THE COORD GRR AND APX! WE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO
OUR WEST FOR FINAL WORDING BY 430 AM.
.DTX...NONE.
BGM
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
AFDTFX 300 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2001
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HILL AND BLAIN COUNTIES THIS AM...THUS WILL MENTION EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ENDING IN FORECAST. REST OF AREA REMAINS UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL WEAK WX DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES...THUS WILL GO FOR MAINLY DRY
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY. BUT WITH
THICKNESS VALUES UP SOME 120 TO 150 METERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES OVER KGTF CFWA ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS AGREE PRETTY GOOD WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVEN THOUGH AIRCRAFT DATA DID NOT MAKE THE
00Z RUNS.
.EXTENDED...H5 RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MT FOR INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
ALBERTA PROVIDES MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FOR PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF DIVIDE...BUT
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. HUMIDITIES LOOK LOW FOR NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WILLIAMSON DC
CCF NUMBERS
GTF BU 064/034 073/039 082 20000
CTB BU 059/033 071/038 077 20000
HLN BU 072/036 077/040 085 20100
BZN BB 069/032 077/037 086 20100
WEY BB 062/022 070/024 074 20111
DLN BB 069/032 074/033 080 20000
HVR BU 064/034 074/038 085 20300
LWT BU 061/033 071/037 079 20210=