Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/10/01


EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 930 PM PDT WED MAY 9 2001

...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH COOLER DAYS MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS BY SUNDAY. ...DISCUSSION... LATEST ACARS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE OVER THE AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A MODERATE CATALINA EDDY HAS DEVELOPED. A HEALTHY ONSHORE TREND IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THEREFORE...THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED UP TO ABOUT 15 HUNDRED FEET DEEP. THIS SHOULD EXERT A COOLING INFLUENCE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. DEEPENING AGAINST SUCH A MASSIVE INVERSION COULD WRING OUT SOME ISOLATED DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO A POSITION JUST OFF SHORE...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE LOW COULD BRING WITH IT A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS STILL PRETTY EARLY IN THE GAME FOR THAT JUST YET.

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK MIGHTY FINE...SO NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.

SAN 0000

.SAN...NONE.

SMALL




SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 920 PM PDT WED MAY 9 2001

MARINE STRATUS AND FOG IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING FROM S OF SAN NORTHWARD TO SBA. A FAIRLY STRONG COASTAL EDDY IS PRESENT...AS EVIDENCED BY SE/S WINDS AT LGB... SNA...SAN AND SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING A DEWPOINT-MEASURING AIRCRAFT OUT OF LAX...SHOW THAT MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO 1000 TO 1300 FEET. GIVEN THE DEEPENING WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...THE ONSHORE PUSH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE EDDY... LOW CLOUD/FOG COVERAGE COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS SUCH AS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES HAVE REPORTED DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NOWCAST WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR LOCAL DENSE FOG ALONG THE LA/VTU BEACHES. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...CLEAR SKIES SO FAR BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. 00Z MESO-ETA INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AS INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

NEW ETA IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN IN BRINGING IN THE HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING EAST PAC TROF. THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY IS PUMPED UP A BIT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AHEAD OF THIS TROF. HGTS/LOW LVL TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COOLING TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE MTNS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS. LOWER VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL PLAIN AREAS WILL COOL THE MOST DUE TO AN INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCE. IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE. LOW CLOUD SITUATION WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE COASTAL EDDY. MESO-ETA INDICATES STRONG EDDY TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW AN EDDY DEVELOPING ON THU NIGHT. WILL LEAVE CLOUD FCSTS IN THE LATER PERIODS ALONE ATTM AND LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE ETA-10 AND 06Z MESO-ETA.

AS FOR THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE...WILL UPDATE TO BREAK OFF LA COUNTY VALLEYS TO INDICATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THU AM. WILL LEAVE VTU VLYS PATCHY FOR NOW AS MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOWER THERE. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND/OR TEMPS IN SOME OF THE OTHER COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES AS WELL.

LAX 0000. JACOBSON

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 300 AM PDT THU MAY 10 2001

...SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ...DISCUSSION... SHORTER RANGE MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT IN SHOWING A WKLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALG THE CA CST. THIS WL CONTINUE THE SLOW COOLING TREND FOR SW CA INTO SAT. CSTL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED WITH SLOW DEEPENING OF MARINE LYR ALSO OCCURRING AS EXPECTED. WED EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BASE OF A STRONG MARINE INVERSION NR 1000 FT LAX TO 1400 FT SAN. MARINE LYR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW DEEPENING...REACHING 1500 TO 2000 FT THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. 06Z ETA SHOWS A WKR CSTL EDDY TONIGHT WITH LTL CHANGE IN MARINE LYR DEPTH...THEN SLIGHT DECR IN DEPTH AND A LTL LESS INLAND PENETRATION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXTENDED...MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FAVORED SUN AND BEYOND... MORE IN LINE WITH MRF ENSEMBLES PER PMDEPD. THIS WOULD KP MTNS AND DESERTS A LTL WARMER THAN MRF MOS AND MARINE INFLUENCE A LTL GREATER W OF THE MTNS. WK...LWR LATITUDE SRN STREAM SHOWN BY THE MRF OVR THE CNTRL AND ERN PAC BETWEEN 30-35N FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS PARTICULARLY DUBIOUS FOR MID MAY.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO IL
AFDCHI 325 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT IR SATELLITE DOES INDEED SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHWEST IL. WILL USE MORNING WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THIS PRECIP...USING RADAR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME FOR EXTENT OF COVERAGE.

ETA/AVN CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/MESO-ETA ALSO SEEM TO CATCH ON TO THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. ETA/MESO-ETA DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AVN PRECIP REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG ACTUAL COLD FRONT. BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH 00Z FRI. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY HERE TOO...WITH CAPES IN THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND LITTLE CAPPING...BUT IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ACTUAL AVAILABLE ENERGY LIKELY TO BE LESS. STILL...WITH BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AND WEAK WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR LATER TODAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL RAISE POPS A BIT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THEM LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT PUSHING FRONT INTO ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BY MORNING...AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 90 KNOT UPPER JET POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD MOTION. THUS LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE FEED. NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY OUT LATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POP FRIDAY EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY TODAY...WITH PRECIP AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. 06Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF RFD SHOWS 850 MB TEMP OF +14 WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80S. WILL BLEND FWC/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE WARMER NUMBERS FOR MINS TONIGHT. FWC/MAV CLOSE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

.CHI...NONE.

RATZER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
AFDAPN 415 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2001

THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE...CHANCE/TIMING OF RAINFALL.

MODEL COMMENT...DESPITE CONCERNS ABOUT LOSS OF ACARS DATA FOR THE 0Z MODEL INPUT...COMPUTER MODELS ALL APPEARED TO VERIFY WELL WITH CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH IOWA. MODELS ALL VERY SIMILAR WITH ONLY THE AVN SHOWING A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE WITH A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW. THE IMPACT ON TODAY/S FORECAST IS MINOR AS ETA/NGM MIX PREFERRED AND DIFFERENCE IS ONLY AFTER THE 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED LAST NIGHT ABOUT AS FORECAST AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE LIGHTNING FOLLOWING THE BEST LIFT ACROSS IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PRIMARILY SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON FIRST PERIOD POPS DUE TO THE TOUGH TIME THE SHOWERS ARE HAVING GETTING HERE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUNSHINE SHOULD QUICKLY SPARK CUMULUS CLOUDS SO WILL WORD PARTLY SUNNY. MOS/MAV TEMPERATURES SEEM OPTIMISTIC WITHOUT FULL SUN...HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT LOWS UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WE START OFF WARM. MODEL TRAJECTORIES ALSO SUPPORT SOME HIGHS OF 75-80. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEET WITH BEST DAYTIME HEAT AND ANY BOUNDARIES OR LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT. MODEL ETA SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED WITH CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND -4 LIFTED INDEX. EXPECT PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN AS UNDER THE LOW WINDS ARE LIGHT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL. UPPER JET AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS ALSO FAVOR HEAVY RAINS.

FRIDAY...FRONT WILL BE OUT OVER THE THUMB AROUND 18Z. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND MANY AREAS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE MORNING SHOWERS MENTION ACROSS THE EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES.

.APX...NONE.

HIRSCH




SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
AFDDTX 243 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2001

...UNSETTLED WX THRU FRIDAY...

PER THE NCEP DISCUSSION...ACARS DATA WAS NOT INGESTED INTO THE 00Z RUN (IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR NEW RUC AND 06Z RUNS). INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING WILL GO TO THE ETA WITH ONGOING MCS. OVERALL THE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR PRECIP BUT QUESTION REMAINS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY.

TODAY...LETS FIRST DEAL WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AVN/ETA BLEND OF 850-300MB THICKNESS, THERMAL WIND PATTERN AND Q-VECTORS TAKES CONVECTION INTO TWO SEPARATE AREAS...THE SOUTHERN HALF DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST JUST SLIPPING BY OUR CWA AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF THE CWA IN THE MIDDLE WITH LITTLE PRECIP AS NOTED IN THE 3-6HR QPF FIELDS. IT APPEARS RH FIELDS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MOCLOUDY DAY ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY (CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DO). MODEL INDICES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG, LI/S FROM 0C NEAR THE LAKE TO AOA -2C INLAND ACROSS THE CWA, 0-6KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES WEAKEN THRU THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE H20/S GO OVER 1.25" AND 925/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS (ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS SOME OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WET BULB ZEROS BETWEEN 9-10K FEET DOES POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS. SO POPS WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DISCUSS WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S FOR FINAL "ANSWER." AT THE MOMENT...LEANING TOWARD A LOWER POP THAN IN CURRENT SET OF ZONES (SCATTERED 40 POPS). MOS CONTINUES WITH THE UP TREND FOR TEMPS...AND TRAJECTORY FORECAST WITH AOA +12 850 TEMPS WOULD BRING SURF TEMPS TO 78-81F. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LOOKS MINIMAL WITH +20KTS AT 950/925MB...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH COUPLING 850-300 CONVERGENCE-DIVERGENCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT FOR ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD BRING RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPES 500-1000 J/KG WITH LI/S 0C TO -3C. PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL ABOVE 1.25" WITH QPF FIELDS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT FROM THE AVN/ETA/NGM. THE ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP WITH AVN/NGM LAGGING BEHIND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT. THINK CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND HEAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA PER THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND PATTERN. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS WITH "LIKELY" WORDING.

FRIDAY...SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX. IF THE ETA IS CORRECT THEN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION WITH CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LI/S -4C. THE NGM/AVN ALSO SHOW A DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH LI/S AND SWI/S -1C TO -3C. SINCE THE TIMING OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN...WE WILL FAVOR THE ETA/AVN BLEND SOLUTION AND KEEP CONVECTION IN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. NORTHERN CWA WILL SEE CAA AS 1000-500 THICKNESSES DROP QUICKLY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ENDING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AS DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL CLEARING AS CAA AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS. WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS INTO THE 40S. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUD COVER HANGS ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE AVN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE NGM/ETA HANG TIGHT WITH CLOUD SHIELD. CURRENT SET OF ZONES LOOK GREAT WITH TIMING AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING PATTERN. MOS NUMBERS LOOK TO HIGH AND WILL LOWER THEM.

WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SATURDAY BUT QUESTIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY. PER THE AVN...WAA WITH RESULTANT OMEGA BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS. 500MB S/W SWINGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WHICH WOULD GIVE SUPPORT FOR SHWRS. WE WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO LOOK AT ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING CHANGES ON SUNDAY.

THANKS FOR THE COORD GRR AND APX! WE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST FOR FINAL WORDING BY 430 AM.

.DTX...NONE.

BGM




SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
AFDTFX 300 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2001

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HILL AND BLAIN COUNTIES THIS AM...THUS WILL MENTION EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ENDING IN FORECAST. REST OF AREA REMAINS UNDER A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK WX DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES...THUS WILL GO FOR MAINLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY. BUT WITH THICKNESS VALUES UP SOME 120 TO 150 METERS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES OVER KGTF CFWA ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS AGREE PRETTY GOOD WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVEN THOUGH AIRCRAFT DATA DID NOT MAKE THE 00Z RUNS.

.EXTENDED...H5 RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL MT FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN ALBERTA PROVIDES MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FOR PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF DIVIDE...BUT WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITIES LOOK LOW FOR NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILLIAMSON DC

CCF NUMBERS GTF BU 064/034 073/039 082 20000 CTB BU 059/033 071/038 077 20000 HLN BU 072/036 077/040 085 20100 BZN BB 069/032 077/037 086 20100 WEY BB 062/022 070/024 074 20111 DLN BB 069/032 074/033 080 20000 HVR BU 064/034 074/038 085 20300 LWT BU 061/033 071/037 079 20210=