Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 01/05/02

Q VECTOR FORECASTS SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAME IS SEEN USING 700 MB Q VECTORS. THE STRONG CONVERGENCE OF Q VECTORS AT BOTH LEVELS IS NOT SEEN UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THAT IS WHEN THERE IS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE FORCING FOR TODAYS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD AND IS NOTED BY STRONG PVA AND AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE AVN MODEL SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -10 AND BELOW BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY. 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THOSE TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR HUDSON BAY AT 0000 UTC. SO THE COLD AIR TIMING IS GOOD FOR IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THE COLD AIR GETS HERE. MOISTURE AT 850 MB IS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT REACHES SATURATION IN THE AIR COLUMN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION 0300 UTC. WILL FORECAST SNOW BECAUSE BY THE TIME THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST ALL THE WAY FROM THE CLOUDS TO THE GROUND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE LAYER 800 TO 900 MB. IN THAT LAYER THE AIR IS ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 0300 UTC.

NOTING THE STRONG CONVERGENCE OF Q VECTORS MONDAY NIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK . WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSE TO WHAT IS NOW IN THE FORECASTS.

USED 700 MB PROFILER PLOTS AND SATELLITE LOOPS FOR TIMING OF THE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS IN TEXAS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE SOUTH. SO A LOT OF MOISTURE MAY BE CUT OFF FOR THIS FORECAST AREA AS A CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH.

.CHI...NONE. $$

WHW



MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE JET ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL JET TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 110KTS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH NW NB. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST RUC DATA IT LOOKS AS IF THESE TWO WAVES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR CWFA TODAY. KICT RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS IN SE KS WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE AT I285K. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN THAT REGION WITH CIGS AROUND 9KFT. WE MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF -RASN IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING. OTHERWISE...THIS WAVE SHOULD EXIT SC AND SE KS BY THE END OF THE DAY AND PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES. THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO PASS BY THIS EVENING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IT AS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE...THE SECONDARY WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW NB WILL HELP YIELD SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KS. SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING AND A CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LOOKING AT THE SFC TRAJECTORIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES KEEPS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. WE MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN ALL LOCATIONS DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LITTLE IF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TOMORROW THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE ETA IS THE SLOWER OF THE THREE MODELS IN BRINGING THIS WAVE IN. THIS MODEL ALSO DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE AVN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON THE SEASONABLE SIDE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE STEADY OR FALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE. WE WILL HIT THE CLOUDS A LITTLE HARDER IN THE EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE DESERT SW AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO GO ABOVE NORMAL. AVN PICKS UP ON A WAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE CWFA. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.

FCSTID = 18 ICT 42 28 41 19 / 30 0 0 0 HUT 42 28 41 19 / 30 0 0 0 EWK 42 28 41 19 / 30 0 0 0 EQA 42 28 41 19 / 30 0 0 0 WLD 42 28 41 19 / 30 0 0 0 RSL 43 25 41 18 / 40 0 0 0 GBD 43 25 41 18 / 40 0 0 0 SLN 42 27 39 18 / 30 0 0 0 MPR 42 27 39 18 / 30 0 0 0 CFV 41 29 39 16 / 40 0 10 0 CNU 41 29 39 16 / 40 0 10 0 K88 41 29 39 16 / 40 0 10 0

.ICT...NONE COX



MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE JET ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL JET TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 110KTS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH NW NB. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST RUC DATA IT LOOKS AS IF THESE TWO WAVES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR CWFA TODAY. KICT RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS IN SE KS WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE AT I285K. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN THAT REGION WITH CIGS AROUND 9KFT. WE MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF -RASN IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING. OTHERWISE...THIS WAVE SHOULD EXIT SC AND SE KS BY THE END OF THE DAY AND PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES. THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO PASS BY THIS EVENING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IT AS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. MEANWHILE...THE SECONDARY WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW NB WILL HELP YIELD SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE IN NORTHEAST KS. SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING AND A CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LOOKING AT THE SFC TRAJECTORIES.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES KEEPS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. WE MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN ALL LOCATIONS DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LITTLE IF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TOMORROW THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE CWFA. THE ETA IS THE SLOWER OF THE THREE MODELS IN BRINGING THIS WAVE IN. THIS MODEL ALSO DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE AVN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON THE SEASONABLE SIDE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE STEADY OR FALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE. WE WILL HIT THE CLOUDS A LITTLE HARDER IN THE EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE DESERT SW AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO GO ABOVE NORMAL. AVN PICKS UP ON A WAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE CWFA. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.

.ICT...NONE COX