NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER COLORADO
AFDDEN 145 PM MST SAT JAN 5 2002
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A BIT OF A MTN WAVE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING AND MTN TOP INV STRENGTHENING
JUST ABV 700MB PER ACARS SOUNDINGS. STRONG 100KT JET SLIDING EAST OF
CWA WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO PRODCUE A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE
FOR AMPLIFIED MTN WAVE. PLATTEVILLE SHOWING ABOUT 30-40KT AT MTN LVL
NOW. MESOETA SHOWS BEST WAVE THRU AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING THEN SOME
MID LVL CAA WITH WK SYSTEM BRUSHNG NERN CO TO THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
WAVE REDEVELOPS AGAIN SUN MORNING AFT 15Z FOR INCREASING WINDS AGAIN
OVR MTNS/HIR FOOTHILLS. SOME GUSTS 50-60 MPH UP HIGH BUT NOT ENUF TO
PRODUCE A SUSTAINED HIGH WIND EVENT. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
MSTR FOR THE MTNS TNT BUT CURRENT LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MSTR
RATHER SCANT LOOKING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING REALLY LOW LAPSE RATES
OF 3-4C/KM AND WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP POPS SCT FOR MTNS TNT.
QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS TNT AS WK TROF COMES
DOWN THE RIDGE AND GLANCES NERN CO. WON'T MENTION ANY PRECIP BUT
THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO OVER FAR NERN CO WITH THE MSTR CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICS. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SUN AFTN AS TROF SLIDES
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME ON SUN WITH THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ENTREKIN
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY IS FCST TO FLATTEN MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON ITS WAY TO COLORADO. NOGAPS AND MRF SHOW SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVR COLORADO AROUND 12Z/WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BACK OVR UTAH
AND ARIZONA. BY 00Z/THU MRF AND NOGAPS BLOW TROUGH WELL EAST OF
AREA...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN PLACE TROUGH AXIS OVR ERN COLORADO.
AT THE SFC THE FASTER MODELS DROP A DRY SFC COLD FRONT INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE OTHER TWO MODELS SHOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z/THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH FASTER
TIMING AND COOL TEMPS OFF ON WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AT AND ABV 500 MBS...SO
WILL LEAVE PCPN OUT OF EXTENDED. BIG NEWS THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. NORMAL MAX TEMP AT DENVER THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS AROUND 43F. DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 12 TO 18F ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING AS WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES...SPREADING OUT OVR THE RCKY
MTN RGN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MERCURY INCHING TOWARDS RECORD
TERRITORY FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY SHOULD MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TURN OUT
TO BE NEAR REALITY. BAKER
.DEN...NONE.