Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 01/07/02

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MILD AND WET WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH PART. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MIDWEEK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE WAVE OFF THE COAST IN SATTIM WITH BROAD CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING OVER PACNW. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG ELY GRADIENTS...PRECIP HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY STAYING ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR. AIR MASS IS VERY MILD WITH ACARS SHOWING FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8000 AND 10000 FEET. ELY SFC GRADIENTS ACROSS CASCADES BACK UP OVER 9 MB SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AS THINGS GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL PUT IT IN FORECAST BUT NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORIES.

GENERAL IDEA OF FORECASTS STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE WILL THE MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIP OCCUR. NEW MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THIS KEEPS US ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVY PRECIP INSTEAD OF LOOKING DOWN THE BARREL. MONDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST... THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH BRIEFLY BUT NOT FULLY INTO CWA.

IF FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH AS INDICATED...THREAT FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH. SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND CASCADES MIGHT BECOME MORE OF A TARGET. CURRENT FORECASTS GOOD...EVEN IF HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS OFF OLYMPICS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY TO PUSH SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD.

FLOODING DISCUSSION...BY KAM. AVN/ETA SHOW A DECREASE IN PCPN OVER CNTRL/N PART OF W WA THIS EVENING AFTER THE WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS LEADING WITH A FAKE THIS TODAY...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE RIVER LEVEL FALLING SLIGHTLY. LATEST RIVER MODEL FCSTS THE SKOK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON A WARNING UNTIL THE RIVER STARTS RISING AGAIN. RIVER MDL ALSO FCSTS SEVERAL POINTS IN THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO FLOOD MON NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE ETA/AVN FOCUSING PCPN FURTHER SOUTH THIS IS A LITTLE MORE IN DOUBT. WL RE-CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING AFTER NEW 00Z MDLS ARRIVE.

.EXTENDED...AFTER TUESDAY'S TROUGH KICKS INLAND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA FOR GENERAL DRYING TREND. HOWEVER...PRECIP STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE CHANCE THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH KICKS INLAND SAT. WILL GROUP SAT/SUN AND CALL IT SHOWERS. MAIN POINT WILL BE FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR. COLMAN

UIL +++8 SEA +++8 OLM +++8

.SEW...GALE WARNING COAST AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL OTHER WATERS.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.



.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MIDWEEK FOR DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.

.DISCUSSION...SATTIM AND RADAR SHOW CLOUD/PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER CWA THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG MAJOR BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OFFSHORE.

AIR MASS ALREADY VERY MILD WITH A FEW LOWLAND STATIONS IN THE 50S AND ACARS REPORTS HINTING AT A FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 10000 FEET. SHORT RANGE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RAIN INCREASING AND BECOMING LOCALLY HEAVY. GRADIENTS ARE STILL EASTERLY ENOUGH THAT WINDS ARE NOT DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE SO WILL BRING WINDS DOWN A NOTCH IN MORNING UPDATE. AS GRADIENTS ROTATE MORE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY...AS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

NCEP MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF CWA AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS AND KEEPS US ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVY PRECIP INSTEAD OF LOOKING DOWN THE BARREL. MONDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH BRIEFLY BUT NOT FULLY INTO CWA.

IF FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH OF OLYMPICS AS INDICATED...THREAT FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH. SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND CASCADES MIGHT BECOME MORE OF A TARGET. CURRENT FORECASTS GOOD...EVEN IF HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS OFF OLYMPICS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY TO PUSH SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD. WILL NEED TO DECIDE THIS AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL CASCADE RIVERS. COLMAN

UIL +++ SEA 9++ OLM 9++

.SEW...GALE WARNING COAST AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL OTHER WATERS.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.



THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING EAST. THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND HEIGHT TENDENCIES AT 500 MB INDICATES THAT THE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN WARMER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY DEEP AS SEEN ON THE ACARS SOUNDING FROM OHARE. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HENCE WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TUESDAY. USED THE ETA AND MESO ETA MODEL FOR GUIDANCE UP TO 36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ADD CLOUDS AND LOW POPS FOR PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST CONVERGENCE OF Q VECTORS AT 700 MB INDICATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. USED THE AVN AND MRF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.CHI...GALE WARNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN

WHW



THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING EAST. THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND HEIGHT TENDENCIES AT 500 MB INDICATES THAT THE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN WARMER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY DEEP AS SEEN ON THE ACARS SOUNDING FROM OHARE. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HENCE WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TUESDAY. USED THE ETA AND MESO ETA MODEL FOR GUIDANCE UP TO 36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ADD CLOUDS AND LOW POPS FOR PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST CONVERGENCE OF Q VECTORS AT 700 MB INDICATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. USED THE AVN AND MRF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.CHI...GALE WARNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN

WHW



...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE TEMPERATURES...

THE 00Z DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL DIRTY RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE AIRMASS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE RECEDING ARCTIC FRONT WAS IDENTIFIABLE AT H8 ACROSS KANSAS AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

MODEL MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY GOOD ACROSS THE DATA RICH CONUS BUT CONTINUE TO SUFFER A BIT WITH THE JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS SHOWN BY AIREP AND ACARS DATA. ALL ARE UNDER DONE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE BUT GENERALLY HAVE THE RIGHT LOCATION THUS WILL LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON THE FORECAST IS FOR INCREASED DOWNSLOPE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE GUIDANCE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE MAV WHICH APPEARS QUITE COOL FOR TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL A VERY MILD WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY JANUARY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RECORD WARMTH.

DAY 3-10... A COOL DOWN STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR NEXT FRONT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY 85H TEMPS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 8-10C WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER WARM DAY IS POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WILL KEEP TEMPS OUT DOWN SOME BUT STILL THINK SOME 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL THEREFORE BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR COLD FRONT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC UU 056/032 072/035 062 08000 GCK UU 058/027 075/032 064 08000 EHA UU 061/034 077/037 066 08000 LBL UU 060/034 076/036 065 08000 HYS UU 055/032 068/034 060 08000 P28 UU 055/034 068/038 065 08000 .DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/BURGERT



.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MILD AND WET WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH THE STEADY RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH PART THURSDAY AND ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH WAVES RIPPLING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT STALLING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LATEST WAVE NEAR 45N/130W AT 10Z WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 12Z ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE LAST SIX HOURS GENERALLY 0.75-1.00 ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WITH A LITTLE MORE ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS AS THIS NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. AMS PLENTY WARM WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING FREEZING LEVEL OVER KSEA NEAR 8000 FEET. ACARS SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE 850 MB WINDS AT 50 KNOTS. FRONT FINALLY DRAGGING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. DRYING TREND ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY PLENTY OF FOG AT LEAST IN THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. .EXTENDED...EACH RUN THE LAST THREE NIGHTS SHOWING A LITTLE WEAKER RIDGING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE BUT 00Z AVN NOW SPREADS PRECIP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRI. GIVEN THE TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THE WEAKER RIDGE WILL PUT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY. LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TONIGHTS MRF SHOWING LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO LAST NIGHTS RUN. WILL STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW. FELTON

UIL ++8 SEA ++8 OLM ++8

.SEW...GALE WARNING COAST AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.