AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
AFDICT 346 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2002
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CHANGEOVER TO FREZZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE TROF IN THE ROCKIES CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING
DEPICTED BETWEEN 280-305K. CURRENT PROFILERS AND ACARS DATA SHOW
THAT THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS AROUND 170 KTS WHICH IS
UNDERDONE ACCORDING TO ALL THREE MODELS. RADAR DATA IS SHOWING BANDS
OF SNOW STARTING TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN FACT...ICT IS NOW
STARTING TO GET SOME -SN. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS OF
SNOW CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN...THE LIFT SHOULD ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN MORE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SINCE THE
LIFT WILL BE STRONGER THERE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SGF WE AGREE
THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE GOOD BET WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE ARE
STILL GOING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL SINCE THE LIFT WILL BE
SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST.
TGT:
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW
FOR TWO-THREE HOURS DUE TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD
AGGREGATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN 1 INCH AN HOUR IN SOME
SPOTS. MESOETA LI'S ARE ON THE ORDER OF +6 ABOVE 750MB WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
LIFT KICKING SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
IN SOUTHEAST KS. IF WE GET GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP ALOFT BEHIND THIS
AREA OF SNOW...WE MAY ALSO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT WE THINK IT MAY BE WORTH MENTIONING BEFORE
THE 850MB BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMEPRATURES SHOULD NOT DROP TO
MUCH EXCEPT IF WE SEE CLEARING IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.
TMRW:
WE SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS NORTHERN TX. THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE CWFA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO SNOW COVER
IN PLACE. WE WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN
THE WEST...DUE TO A DEEPER SNOWPACK.
TMRW NGT AND SUN:
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT GOING TO
MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXTD:
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHERE ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROF DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WARMUP ON TUES AND WED WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH ON WED.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF IT COULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
FCSTID = 18
ICT 25 37 19 37 / 60 0 10 10
HUT 25 37 19 37 / 60 0 10 10
EWK 25 37 19 37 / 60 0 10 10
EQA 25 37 19 37 / 60 0 10 10
WLD 25 37 19 37 / 60 0 10 10
RSL 21 41 19 38 / 40 0 10 10
GBD 21 41 19 38 / 40 0 10 10
SLN 23 38 19 35 / 60 0 10 10
MPR 23 38 19 35 / 60 0 10 10
CFV 28 32 17 37 / 80 10 10 10
CNU 28 32 17 37 / 80 10 10 10
K88 28 32 17 37 / 80 10 10 10
.ICT...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ070>072...
KSZ094>096...KSZ098>100.
COX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
AFDICT 130 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2002
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CHANGEOVER TO FREZZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE TROF IN THE ROCKIES CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING
DEPICTED BETWEEN 280-305K. CURRENT PROFILERS AND ACARS DATA SHOW
THAT THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS AROUND 170 KTS WHICH IS
UNDERDONE ACCORDING TO ALL THREE MODELS. RADAR DATA IS SHOWING BANDS
OF SNOW STARTING TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN FACT...ICT IS NOW
STARTING TO GET SOME -SN. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS OF
SNOW CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN...THE LIFT SHOULD ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN MORE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SINCE THE
LIFT WILL BE STRONGER THERE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SGF WE AGREE
THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE GOOD BET WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE ARE
STILL GOING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL SINCE THE LIFT WILL BE
SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST.
TGT:
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW
FOR TWO-THREE HOURS DUE TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD
AGGREGATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN 1 INCH AN HOUR IN SOME
SPOTS. MESOETA LI'S ARE ON THE ORDER OF +6 ABOVE 750MB WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
LIFT KICKING SOUTHEAST BUT STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
IN SOUTHEAST KS. IF WE GET GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP ALOFT BEHIND THIS
AREA OF SNOW...WE MAY ALSO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
LIFT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT WE THINK IT MAY BE WORTH MENTIONING BEFORE
THE 850MB BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMEPRATURES SHOULD NOT DROP TO
MUCH EXCEPT IF WE SEE CLEARING IN THE WEST. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.
TMRW:
WE SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS NORTHERN TX. THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE CWFA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO SNOW COVER
IN PLACE. WE WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN
THE WEST...DUE TO A DEEPER SNOWPACK.
TMRW NGT AND SUN:
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT GOING TO
MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXTD:
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHERE ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROF DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
CAUSE A WARMUP ON TUES AND WED WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH ON WED.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF IT COULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
.ICT...SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
COX
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
AFDGRI 313 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2002
...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING
IN SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF CWA...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURING A PERSISTENT
LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. POLAR
VORTEX REMAINS NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAIN LINED-UP
BACK THROUGH THE PACIFIC.
LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRAILING BEHIND. MEAN UPPER
JET POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ACARS DATA INDICATING A 150+ KNOT JET CORE TRANSLATING
ACROSS CO/KS/MO.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS FROM EASTERN
CO THROUGH KS AND SRN NEB. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM IA TO
AIL.
WAA/DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY SATURATE
THE COLUMN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH KS/OK TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR -SN TONIGHT WILL BE IN NCNTRL KS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE NEB CWA...AS THOSE AREAS COULD RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST LATE.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING
ABOUT CLEARING SKIES. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S. APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
ABOUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONSISTENT WITH THE SAME PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN A MILD EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTRODUCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COORDINATED WITH OAX AND TOP.
.GID...NONE.
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 945 AM PST FRI JAN 18 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...IN
THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MARINE AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT SATURDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BRINGING LOWLAND RAIN AND WIND...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY WEAK WARM FRONT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF BUOY 5.
MULTIPLE MORNING ACARS SOUNDING IN AND OUT OF SEATAC VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL 1700-1900 FEET AND VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM 850 MB TO THE SURFACE. NOTHING MUCH NEW IN THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST 06Z-09Z...KSEA 09Z-
12Z AND INTO THE CASCADES BY 15Z. PROBLEM IS STILL THE PRECIP TYPE
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
NEAR 32 DEGREES ADD IN THE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT FROM THE ACARS SOUNDINGS
AND THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT
WINDS BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL 00Z. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
COIN...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LOOKS LIGHT INITIALLY SO NOT MUCH WET
BULB COOLING. CURRENT FORECAST OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIP INITIALLY LOOKS GOOD. MODEL LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WHICH SHOULD HELP MIX THE LOWER LAYER AND RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL UP TO
NEAR 1000 FEET. OROGRAPHICS BEHIND THE FRONT MODERATE WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE WHOLE EVENT IN THE CASCADES. WILL
ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 0. STRONG
OROGRAPHICS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE WINTER STORM
WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FELTON
UIL 8+7 SEA 698 OLM 698
.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
.KATX...VCP32/CSR32...OPERATIONAL.