SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHOU 311 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2002
WIDE SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE 500
MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL AFFECT SE TX
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 06Z A COASTAL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
BUOY 42002 AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST WEST OF CLL...BRENHAM...AND
VCT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXTENT...AMOUNT...AND
DURATION OF RAINFALL. OTHER FACTORS INCLUDE WINDS OVER THE MARINE
AREAS AND THE LAND AREAS TOWARD AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST MODELS
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AT 500 MB...THOUGH DIFFERENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
LIKED THE AVN IN HOW IT INITIALIZED AND THEN HANDLED MOST ITEMS...
THOUGH THE ETA LOOKED BETTER WITH THE CLEARING TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
THE WATER VAPOR AND 00Z 700 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FROM
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND THE 06Z ACARS/MAP IAH SOUNDING WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STILL A BIT DRY. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THE
ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE BY 18Z. WITH THE LOW AND WARM
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE AVN...WILL ONLY PUT THUNDER
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...HPC IS FORECASTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER SE TX THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...SO DO
NOT FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AS OMINOUS AS IT WOULD APPEAR IN A
CONVECTIVE SITUATION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND THE DAY
SHIFT MAY GO IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND THESE SHOULD LET UP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE FWC AND MAV OUTPUT LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE
TODAY AND ARE ON THE COOL SIDE INLAND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL GO
CLOSE TO THE OUTPUT.
PL-40
45
.HGX...SCEC GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.
SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.
PRELIMS...
CLL RE 045/039 047/034 059 ++3
IAH RE 047/041 049/035 058 ++3
GLS RE 054/045 048/040 055 ++3