Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 02/07/02

INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE ZONES TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST... ESPECIALLY FOR AVIATION. LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH. CEILINGS ARE 500 TO 1000 FEET AND HAVE REACHED LA CROSSE AREA AT 03 UTC. 500 TO 1000 FOOT ACARS WINDS FROM MILWAUKEE AND 925 MB WINDS FROM BLUE RIVER PROFILER HAVE VEERED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAYBE REACHING OSHKOSH AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF GREEN BAY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 2000 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS ARE BEHIND TROUGH NORTHWEST OF DULUTH. THESE MAY ARRIVE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

.GRB...NONE.

RDM WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB



QUIET EVENING IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MARINE LAYER HAS RETURNED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REPORTED AT A NUMBER OF THE REPORTING SITES. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE AT VANDENBERG AFB. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 500 TO 800 FEET DEEP...WHILE A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM SNA IS EVEN SHALLOWER...SHOWING ONLY 100 FEET OR SO OF MARINE LAYER DEPTH. SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...WITH 1/4 MILE VSBY AT SNA. COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FURTHER NORTH INTO THE LA/VTU COASTS AS WELL LATER TONIGHT AND THU AM. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT WITH STRONGER ONSHORE GRADS THERE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND PATCHY INTO THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE DISTRICT WILL MOVE OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND 00Z AVN ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 00Z ETA IS MUCH DRIER HOWEVER. AVN EVEN INDICATES SOME LIFT BRUSHING THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE P/C SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES ON THURS...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL ON THURS...AND RISE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO FRI.

INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL CLEAR/DRY THINGS OUT...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SBA SOUTH COAST...AND LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NE BY SAT MORNING... AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP NICELY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMER VALLEYS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK...AS TONIGHTS AVN IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHTS MRF. P/C SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS WILL SUFFICE FOR MON/TUE UNTIL A CLEARER MODEL CONSENSUS EMERGES. OLD MODELS HAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING BY MID-WEEK WITH RENEWED OFFSHORE FLOW... ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. STILL NO RAIN IN SIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

LAX 0000. JACOBSON

.LOX...NONE.



SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: TEMPS ARE STARTING OFF QUITE MILD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH READINGS GENERALLY JUST BELOW FREEZING FROM DENVER TO FORT COLLINS. NCAR MESA LAB WARMEST SPOT AT 41 DEGREES. ACARS SHOWS INVERSION ONLY ABOUT 30 MB DEEP SO SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE FOR A RAPID WARMUP. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY THIS WAY. TIMED THESE TO THE FRONT RANGE BY 18-19Z SO CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. MM5 CLOUD CONDENSATE SHOWS A PRETTY HEALTHY MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD BY THAT TIME AS WELL SO MIGHT EVEN GO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW WILL WORD AS INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT TONIGHT SO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS REMAIN MILD WITH LEE TROFING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: FOR FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW JET FLOW ON THE INCREASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND POINTS NORTH BY 00Z LATE AFTERNOON. THE DIV-Q GRIDS SHOW A BRIEF SHOT OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER FROM ABOUT 18Z TO 03Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING IS PROGGED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY DUE NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/WIND GRIDS SHOW A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BY 21Z/00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP...THE STABILITY PROFILE DOESN'T BECOME FAVORABLE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL MAKE SURE STRONG WINDS ARE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR THE END OF THE THIRD...AND ALL OF THE FOURTH AND FIFTH PERIODS. THE DAY SHIFT CAN CONTEMPLATE HIGHLIGHTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...ON FRIDAY...GRIDS SHOW THE MOISTURE LOWERING AND THICKENING IN THE HIGH COUNTY FOR SNOW TO BECOME "LIKELY" BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z-15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND FOR "SCATTERED" SNOW SHOWERS THE REST OF THE SATURDAY WITH THE DECENT NORTHWEST -NORTHERLY FLOW. OVER THE PLAINS...GRIDS SHOW SOME "PARTLY CLOUDY" HIGH CLOUDED SKIES FOR MOST OF THE FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST MOISTURE IS FROM ABOUT 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WAY EAST. THE CURRENT GOING POPS ARE OK... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY ON THE PLAINS WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE. FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW A COOL-OFF FOR FRIDAY'S HIGHS FROM TODAY'S...ABOUT 1.0-2.5 C COOLER. ON SATURDAY...GRIDS SHOW A 3.0-6.0 C COOL DOWN.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS TO CURRENT ONES. WILL CHANGE LITTLE. RJK

.DEN...NONE.



.SYNOPSIS...NIGHT AND MORNING DENSE FOG WILL EXTEND FROM THE COAST LOCALLY INTO THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS THOUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. A LITTLE COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.

.DISCUSSION...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BASE OF A SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION NR 400 FT WITH THE TOP AROUND 1200 FT...SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG FM THE CST INLAND TO THE MESAS. DENSE FOG MAY EXTEND LCLLY INTO THE LWR CSTL VLYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FM THE CST INLAND TO THE LWR CSTL VLYS. WITH THE UPR RDG BEGINNING TO BUILD OVR SRN CA TONIGHT...THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH LTL IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEEPENING EXPECTED. GREATEST HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WL BE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVG E THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RDG WL BUILD OVR SRN CA. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WL BRING WK TO LCLLY MDT OFFSHORE FLOW TO SRN CA. GREATEST WARMING FOR SAT/SUN WL BE WEST OF THE MTNS. SFC COLD ADVECTION WL KP THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERTS AREA A LTL COOLER WITH WARMING FOR THOSE AREAS DELAYED UNTIL MON AT WHICH TIME AREAS W OF THE MTNS BEGIN TO COOL AS THE UPR RDG BEGINS TO WKN AND THE FLOW TRENDS ONSHR.

TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED MDLS CONTINUE TO LACK AGREEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE BASED THE FORECAST ON A LESS AMPLIFIED MRF...A LTL COOLER...BUT DRY.

.SAN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSAN.

MARTIN