AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
AFDDDC 327 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2002
DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS ALL PERIODS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORNING ACARS DATA HAD 150KT 300MB JET CORE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
AND ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS, STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND WESTERN IDAHO WAS APPARENT. UPPER WAVE OVER IDAHO SUCKING
IN -36C AT 500MB WITH ANOTHER MINOR WAVE CROSSING THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. DDC NEARLY THE WARMEST STATION AT 700 AND
850MB THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. EARLY AFTERNOON OBS
SHOW FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH 4MB PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT
AND 4MB FALLS OVER OKLAHOMA. MODELS WERE A BIT UNDERDONE WITH JET
CORE SPEEDS AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE WAVE AND VERY POOR WITH
LOWER LEVEL TEMPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
FRONT SURGES OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT, CROSSING THE ZONES FROM 02Z
TO 07Z. UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH
COLD AIR SLIDING IN BEHIND. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUICKLY RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS
HAVE REACH 70F. VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY SHOULD PUSH WINDS IN TO
THE WARNING AREA FOR A WHILE. FOR REMAINDER OF ZONES, PRESSURE
FIELDS MAY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO ADJUST TO KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW
WARNING LEVELS AND WILL GO WITH ADVISORY. AS COLUMN MOISTENS IN THE
NORTH, MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MORNING AND WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT POPS HERE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO COME SOUTH SATURDAY WITH GRADIENT STILL
STRONG. CONVECTIVE SNOW DOESN'T APPEAR TOO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT WILL BUMP UP POPS OVER NEXT TIERS SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW. THINK CEILINGS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH PRECIP TO KEEP
MIXING LENGTH DOWN TO KEEP WINDS BELOW WARNING LEVELS, BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. WILL KEEP WATCH GOING FOR WESTERN 2/3 COUNTIES
HERE IN CASE WARNING IS NEEDED. THE WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE STRONGER
WINDS WHERE HIGH ENOUGH/LACK OF CEILINGS ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
KEEP WINDS IN WARNING LEVELS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RAISE JUST ABOVE GOING
NUMBERS.
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY EXIT DURING THE EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY TRY TO SEAL OFF OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT AM WORRIED
ABOUT EASTERN ZONES REMAINING QUITE WINDY. WILL STRETCH WATCH OUT
INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH THIS IN MIND. TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON MIXING BUT HAVE A HARD TIME BUYING INTO GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE
TEENS. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD. NORTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FAST RECOVERY AT BAY. LOW TO MID 40S LOOK GOOD
FOR HIGHS.
DAYS 3-7...
THE CORE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 120 DEGREES EAST AND SHOULD APPROACH THE DATELINE
AROUND 20 FEBRUARY. BY 20 FEBRUARY, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD EVOLVE
TOWARD A PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE MID
PACIFIC WITH TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, A RETURN TO RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTING UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MRF, ECMWF, UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND THE ADVERTISED SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE.
AT LEAST TWO FAIRLY VIGOROUS, FAST MOVING WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES DURING THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGES MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO CARRY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNTIL MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
SUCH, THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL DROP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
AT MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
NEAR 160W COULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY GREAT TO MERIT INTRODUCTION
OF POPS.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.
DDC 32 37 23 41 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 32 40 23 43 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 31 41 21 45 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 32 41 23 44 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 32 37 23 41 / 20 40 20 0
P28 36 41 24 44 / 0 20 10 0
.DDC...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY KSZ061-062-
074-075-084-085.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
...HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
POAGE/01