AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
AFDBTV 1127 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2002
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO MOSTLY THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS.
STORM SYS TO TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND DOWN THE ST LAW VLY
TODAY. CFROPA EXPECTED ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW TONITE...AS A RIDGE OF
SFC HI PRESS BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. GOOD SFC PRESS
GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TONITE AS WELL. UPR TROF/TROP FOLD TO
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...AND THEN START TO
MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST BY LATER TONITE.
12Z 40KM RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 30S TODAY WITH S-SW SFC
WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U30S-L40S TODAY AND LOOK A
TAD HIGH GIVEN WIDE RANGE TO MESONET OBS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD
TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON RUC DATA AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS. MID-LVL
MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA BY AROUND 21Z TODAY. LOW-LVL MSTR TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA AS WELL TODAY. BEST H85 FGEN TO BE LOCATED TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA TODAY THOUGH. H85 TEMPS TO BASICALLY
STAY BLO 0 DEG C ACRS THE FA TODAY (EXCEPT ACRS SRN VT) THRU 00Z. H95
WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO ABOVE 0 DEG C ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 00Z
TONITE. RUC SHOWS WIDESPREAD PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FA BY 00Z
TONITE (WITH BLO 0.25" OF QPF). RUC PTYPE ALGORITHM SHOWS MOSTLY RA
FOR THE ST LAW VLY...RA/SN TO MOSTLY RA ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...
CHAMP VLY AND RUT CTY...SN TO SN/FZRA/RA ACRS NE/NC VT...AND
SN/FZRA/RA (AND POSSIBLY SOME PL) TO MOSTLY RA ACRS WINDSOR CTY
TODAY. BLO AN INCH OR TWO OF SN EXPECTED IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET
SOME SN TODAY. BEST ARGUMENT AGAINST ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR FZRA
TODAY ACRS ERN VT IS THE FACT THAT APPARENTLY THE FA WILL HAVE MOST
OF THE DAY TO WARM UP BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...GIVEN THAT BUFCAN/88D
MOSAIC SHOWS THE PCPN STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA ATTM.
STRONG H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN STRONG CAA TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TONITE. 1249Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KBTV SHOWED A
SMALL AREA ABOVE 0 DEG C AT AROUND 6KFT ALREADY. H85 TEMPS TO GO BACK
BLO 0 DEG C ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 06Z TONITE. GOOD LOW-LVL
MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL
(AND MID-LVL) MSTR TO LINGER ACRS MUCH OF THE FA (EXCEPT MAYBE ACRS
NRN NY) TONITE. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO 0.5-0.75" BY
LATE TODAY...THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 0.3" BY LATE TONITE. TOTAL QPF
FROM THIS UPCOMING SYS (THRU 12Z MON) EXPECTED TO BE BLO 0.85"...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF SN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA TONITE. WILL HAVE RE-
EVALUATE THE POTNL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA SN ACRS THE FA TONITE ON THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LAPSE RATES DON/T APPEAR HI ENUFF TONITE FOR ANY
BIG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...BUT WILL LEAVE WIND FORECAST FOR
TONITE BASICALLY INTACT FOR NOW.
ABOVE THINKING INCORPORATED INTO UPDATED ZFP. WRK ZONES AND FINAL ZFP
ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY