AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
AFDGYX 835 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2002
WL UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR TWEAKING OF THE 1ST PERIOD.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE 1ST OF 2 S/W IN THE WSWLY FLO APCHG NRNMOST NYS.
AWIPS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OF THE
FA...JUST AHEAD OF THE 1ST S/W. HOWEVER...VERY LTL OF THIS IS
MAKING IT TO THE GRND AS THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY (THE
00Z ALY RAOB TELLS THE STORY).
AS THIS S/W PASSES JUST N OF THE NRN ZNS BEFORE MIDN...WUD EXPECT
ANY ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA IS
GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 2ND S/W MOVG THRU THE FLO ACPHS
BEFORE PCPN CHCS INCR.
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THE 2ND S/W (AS A 100KT JET PASSES ALMOST
OVERHEAD CLOSE TO 12Z)...BUT OVERALL THE AMS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
FOR THIS REASON...WL NOT INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF TNGT...
DESPITE THE DYNAMIC FORCING. WL INDICATE FOR JUST ABT ALL ZNS THAT
THE PCPN WL BE AFT MIDN (AND IN SOME CASES...WELL AFT MIDN).
THE LOWER AMS IS FAIRLY WARM...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL RANGING FROM
CLOSE TO THE SFC IN CNTRL SOMERSET CTY TO CLOSE TO 4KFT IN SRN NH
(ACARS SOUNDINGS FM KMHT BETWEEN 22Z-00Z BEAR THIS OUT). SINCE HGTS
DON'T DROP TIL LATER TNGT...WUD EXPECT JUST ABT ALL ZNS TO START AS
LIQUID OR A MIX (WITH THE MIX LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS). IN FACT...
MAY HAVE TO ADD LIQUID TO THE WRN MTNS AS FREEZING LEVELS HERE ARE
PROBABLY ABV FREEZING (AND THE PCPN MAY NOT FALL HEAVILY ENUF TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE EVAP COOLING AVAIALBLE).
WL BUMPS MINS UP A TAD ALL ZNS AS THE COOLING WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LT
NGT (OR MORE LIKELY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE) AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W
JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2ND S/W.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PUBLIC FCST. LUKS AS THO
THE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE 2ND S/W SHUD BE
FAR ENUF OFFSHORE TO NEGATE IMPACT ON THE FA.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS STILL IN THE GLW RANGE. 00Z/16 GYX
RAOB SHOWS WINDS AT 40KT ARND 1KFT...AND WL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GENERAL WIND FIELD RELAXES AFT 06Z BEFORE WINDS DROP BLO GLW.
THANKS FOR THE COORD CAR.
EXPECT TO HAVE THE UPDATED ZNS OUT BEFORE 900 PM...AND THE COASTAL
SHUD GO OUT ABT THAT TIME AS WELL.
.GYX...GLW.
HAYES