AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
AFDDDC 247 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2002
DAYS 1-2...
CURRENT FORECAST AND LATEST AVN CAPTURE THE ESSENCE WHAT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER 135W/35N THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE
THE UPPER WAVE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRY TO OPEN
UP DURING MONDAY, HOWEVER, NEEDED MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS WILL
BE OFF TO THE CWA'S EAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, POPS
WILL BE YANKED FROM THE MONDAY FORECAST. THE CLOUD AND WIND FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE, THUS WILL NOT TOUCH TOO MUCH
IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC/850MB GRADS TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT 2 DAYS, AND SEE NO REASON TO DISPUTE THIS IDEA.
AS FOR TEMPS...PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS VALID 0Z/MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
HOWEVER, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL AID IN PREVENTING THE CWA FROM
REALIZING TEMPS WHICH ARE NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE ADVERTISES. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECASTED HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY LOOK REASONABLE, AND HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE RAISED TO
MATCH WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
DAYS 3-7...
IN THE DIAGNOSTICS TODAY THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. NEAR 42N 160W AIREP AND
ACARS DATA INDICATE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE MASS FIELDS
AS A 170KT+ UPPER JET CORE IS IN THAT AREA AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY
INITIALIZED SOMETHING THE RANGE OF 120 TO 140KTS. THIS LEADING WAVE
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, IN THE 5 DAY SKILL SCORES THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE OTHER MODELS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
ITS SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL LOOK FOR THE LEE SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO SUNDAY AND DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF
THE COLDER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS TAKING THE BULK OF THE LIFT,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH IT. WITH THE GULF MAINLY CLOSED IN
THIS TIME FRAME ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
WILL THUS LOOK FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE NEXT WAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC FORCES AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL FORCE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND
PUSH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.
DDC 28 63 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 31 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 31 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 28 63 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
P28 30 64 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
.DDC...NONE.
16/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
AFDDDC 146 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2002
DAYS 1-2...
CURRENT FORECAST AND LATEST AVN CAPTURE THE ESSENCE WHAT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER 135W/35N THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE
THE UPPER WAVE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRY TO OPEN
UP DURING MONDAY, HOWEVER, NEEDED MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS WILL
BE OFF TO THE CWA'S EAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, POPS
WILL BE YANKED FROM THE MONDAY FORECAST. THE CLOUD AND WIND FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE, THUS WILL NOT TOUCH TOO MUCH
IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC/850MB GRADS TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT 2 DAYS, AND SEE NO REASON TO DISPUTE THIS IDEA.
AS FOR TEMPS...PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS VALID 0Z/MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
HOWEVER, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL AID IN PREVENTING THE CWA FROM
REALIZING TEMPS WHICH ARE NOT MORE THAN A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE ADVERTISES. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECASTED HIGHS
FOR SUNDAY LOOK REASONABLE, AND HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE RAISED TO
MATCH WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
DAYS 3-7...
IN THE DIAGNOSTICS TODAY THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. NEAR 42N 160W AIREP AND
ACARS DATA INDICATE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE MASS FIELDS
AS A 170KT+ UPPER JET CORE IS IN THAT AREA AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY
INITIALIZED SOMETHING THE RANGE OF 120 TO 140KTS. THIS LEADING WAVE
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, IN THE 5 DAY SKILL SCORES THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE OTHER MODELS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
ITS SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL LOOK FOR THE LEE SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO SUNDAY AND DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF
THE COLDER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS TAKING THE BULK OF THE LIFT,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH IT. WITH THE GULF MAINLY CLOSED IN
THIS TIME FRAME ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
WILL THUS LOOK FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE NEXT WAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC FORCES AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL FORCE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND
PUSH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
PRELIM CCF TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.
.DDC...NONE.
16/JOHNSON