Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 02/19/02

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE RW AND TS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OK CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH ALONG A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. IN FACT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ENTERING CENTRAL OK WITH 50 DEG F DEWPOINTS ON THE OK/TX BORDER. AT 18Z...HILLSBORO PROFILER ACARS SOUNDING FROM ICT DEPICTED THE LLJ TO BE AROUND 40-45KT. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYS END. CURRENTLY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE. LOTS OF VIRGA TAKING PLACE FROM THESE CLOUD DECKS DUE TO ASSISTANCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE WITH A NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PACKAGE. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE IN BRINGING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING IN NORTHERN AZ OUT TO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINITY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. THE LATEST AVN AND UKMET RUN TENDS TO BACK UP THIS SOLUTION SO WE ARE GOING TO FOLLOW IT FOR THE MOST PART. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN EXPANDING DRY SLOT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED BY THE AVN/ETA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO APPEARS TO RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY MORE SHOWERS THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAIRLY GOOD 700-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR DUE TO GOOD BACKING FLOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO GET ANY MOMENTUM TRANSFER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT 45-50 NORTH. IF THE TEMPERATURES STAY UP...WE MAY NOT HAVE THAT LARGE OF AN INVERSION. MODELS ALSO PROJECT THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AFTER 06Z. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND HAIL. RIGHT NOW WE ANTICIPATE THE MAIN EVENT TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z PER SWODY1.

TOMORROW THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A NICE DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING IT. AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH...SO SHOULD THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND TAKING PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM WE WILL NOT MENTION MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS. WE WILL GO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOMORROW NIGHT THINGS OUGHT TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY NICELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR US TO RADIATE OUT FAIRLY NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LOW TO MID 30S.

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS TX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY NICELY TO THE 50S.

THURSDAY THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS.

FCSTID = 18 ICT 53 62 35 55 / 70 40 0 0 HUT 49 59 34 53 / 60 40 0 0 EWK 49 59 34 53 / 60 40 0 0 EQA 53 62 35 55 / 70 40 0 0 WLD 53 62 35 55 / 70 40 0 0 RSL 47 55 32 52 / 40 40 0 0 GBD 47 55 32 52 / 40 40 0 0 SLN 47 55 32 52 / 40 40 0 0 MPR 49 59 34 53 / 60 40 0 0 CFV 55 64 36 57 / 80 60 10 0 CNU 55 64 36 57 / 80 60 10 0 K88 55 64 36 57 / 80 60 10 0

.ICT...NONE

COX



MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE RW AND TS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OK CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH ALONG A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. IN FACT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ENTERING CENTRAL OK WITH 50 DEG F DEWPOINTS ON THE OK/TX BORDER. AT 18Z...HILLSBORO PROFILER ACARS SOUNDING FROM ICT DEPICTED THE LLJ TO BE AROUND 40-45KT. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYS END. CURRENTLY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE. LOTS OF VIRGA TAKING PLACE FROM THESE CLOUD DECKS DUE TO ASSISTANCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE WITH A NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PACKAGE. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE IN BRINGING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING IN NORTHERN AZ OUT TO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINITY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. THE LATEST AVN AND UKMET RUN TENDS TO BACK UP THIS SOLUTION SO WE ARE GOING TO FOLLOW IT FOR THE MOST PART. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN EXPANDING DRY SLOT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED BY THE AVN/ETA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO APPEARS TO RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY MORE SHOWERS THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAIRLY GOOD 700-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR DUE TO GOOD BACKING FLOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO GET ANY MOMENTUM TRANSFER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT 45-50 NORTH. IF THE TEMPERATURES STAY UP...WE MAY NOT HAVE THAT LARGE OF AN INVERSION. MODELS ALSO PROJECT THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AFTER 06Z. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND HAIL. RIGHT NOW WE ANTICIPATE THE MAIN EVENT TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z PER SWODY1.

TOMORROW THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A NICE DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING IT. AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH...SO SHOULD THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND TAKING PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM WE WILL NOT MENTION MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS. WE WILL GO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOMORROW NIGHT THINGS OUGHT TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY NICELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR US TO RADIATE OUT FAIRLY NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LOW TO MID 30S.

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS TX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY NICELY TO THE 50S.

THURSDAY THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS.

.ICT...NONE

COX



MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE RW AND TS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OK CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH ALONG A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. IN FACT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ENTERING CENTRAL OK WITH 50 DEG F DEWPOINTS ON THE OK/TX BORDER. AT 18Z...HILLSBORO PROFILER ACARS SOUNDING FROM ICT DEPICTED THE LLJ TO BE AROUND 40-45KT. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYS END. CURRENTLY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE. LOTS OF VIRGA TAKING PLACE FROM THESE CLOUD DECKS DUE TO ASSISTANCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE WITH A NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PACKAGE. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE IN BRINGING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING IN NORTHERN AZ OUT TO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINITY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. THE LATEST AVN AND UKMET RUN TENDS TO BACK UP THIS SOLUTION SO WE ARE GOING TO FOLLOW IT FOR THE MOST PART. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AND EXPANDING DRY SLOT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED BY THE AVN/ETA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO APPEARS TO RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY MORE SHOWERS THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW...SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH FAIRLY GOOD 700-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR DUE TO GOOD BACKING FLOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO GET ANY MOMENTUM TRANSFER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT 45-50 NORTH. IF THE TEMEPRATURES STAY UP...WE MAY NOT HAVE THAT LARGE OF AN INVERSION. MODELS ALSO PROJECT THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AFTER 06Z. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND HAIL. RIGHT NOW WE ANTICIPATE THE MAIN EVENT TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z PER SWODY1.

TOMORROW THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A NICE DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING IT. AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH...SO SHOULD THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND TAKING PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM WE WILL NOT MENTION MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS. WE WILL GO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOMORROW NIGHT THINGS OUGHT TO CLEAR OUT FARILY NICELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR US TO RADIATE OUT FAIRLY NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LOW TO MID 30S.

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS TX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY NICELY TO THE 50S.

THURSDAY THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS.

.ICT...NONE

COX