Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 02/22/02

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: THE WARM TEMPERATURES WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ALL WEEK WL ARRIVE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE LATER TODAY. TEMPS IN THE DENVER AREA HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOWER 30S SO FAR THIS MRNG AS SFC LEE TROFFING HAS DVLPD ACRS THE NE CO PLAINS. ACARS SNDGS FM KDEN SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK TO MORE NWLY ALG WITH WARMING OF THE AMS AT LVLS BELOW 700 MB. EXAMINATION OF THE MODELS AND X-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THE REALLY STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND HIGHER FTHLS LOCATIONS. THERE WILL APPARENTLY BE TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TODAY FOR A STRONG MTN WAVE TO DVLP. VALUES FM LCL SANGSTER WIND MODEL ARE ALSO TOO LOW TO EXPECT MUCH WIND. THE MM5 AND MESO-ETA ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE MTNS. WL MENTION THE WINDY CONDS IN THE MTN ZONES BUT WITH THE UPR JET HAVING ALRDY MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST...WL NOT NEED ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

AFTN TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN STORY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH 15-16 DEG C ACRS ERN CO THIS AFTN...SO WL STICK WITH THE GOING FCST OF HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. THE WELL MIXED AMS WL ALLOW MID LVL WNDS TO MIX TO THE SFC BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LEE TROF AXIS REMAINING NEAR THE FTHLS...THE PRES PATTERN WL NOT SUPPORT STRONG WINDS. DON'T EXPECT ANY MORE THAN BREEZY CONDS ACRS THE PLAINS.

SEASONALLY MILD TEMPS WL CONT OVERNITE AS THE LEE TROF STAYS IN PLACE. TEMP FIELDS FM THE ETA ONLY SHOW ABT 5 DEG C OF COOLING AT 850 MB. MTN WAVE CLDS WL AID OTHER LEE TROF MECHANISMS IN KEEPING TEMPS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: UPR LVL RDG WL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NWRN US COAST MOVES SE TOWARDS NRN CO ON SAT. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ACRS NRN CO ON SAT WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS 700 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +3 TO +5 RANGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 60S OVR THE PLAINS. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCRG WLY FLOW WITH MINIMAL SHEAR HOWEVER STABILITY PROFILE WL BE DECREASING AS UPR LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. SHOULD STILL SEE GUSTY WNDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BUT WON'T ISSUE A HI WND WATCH. BASED ON TIMING OF UPR LVL DISTRUBANCE AND RH CROSS-SECTIONS APPEARS PCPN IN THE MTNS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT EVENING.

FOR SAT NGT AND SUN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE EAST OF RGN WITH WNW FLOW DVLPG. MEANWHILE A CDFNT WL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS OF CO BY LATE NGT AND THEN BACKDOOR INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING ON SUN. TEMPS WL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ON SUN AS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NERN CO. IN THE MTNS WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING MSTR SHOULD SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ON SUN. OVR NERN CO UPSLOPE FLOW WL DVLP BEHIND FNT WITH INCR IN LOW CLOUDS AND COMBINED WITH SOME WK GEOFRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LYR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.

SUN NGT INTO MON SNOW CHCS MAY INCR ACRS NRN CO AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO NERN CO AND ENHANCES UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION CR0SS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR CSI SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG ACRS NRN CO AS WELL.

BY TUE SFC HI WL BE OVR AREA WITH WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW. COULD STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN THE MTNS BUT PCPN CHCS OVR NERN CO LOOK LOW. FOR WED AND THU ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WL APPOACH RGN IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER CDFNT MAY INCR PCPN CHCS ACRS NRN CO. KLEYLA

.DEN...NONE.



.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE COOL AND DRY. .DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT STILL STALLED OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AT 10Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS COOLING OFFSHORE INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE SW WINDS AT 50 KT AT 850 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TROUGH ALONG 140W CONTINUING TO DIG WHICH SUPPORTS THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SOLUTIONS THAT THE 00Z MODELS SHOWED. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ZONE POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT FOR THE METRO AREA. ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND -8C. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

.EXTENDED...NEW MRF SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE OLD RUN IN BRINGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE. ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING DOWN THE BC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES OVER THE AREA. WILL ADD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST. FELTON

UIL +41 SEA +41 OLM +41

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT ADMIRALTY INLET. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

.KATX...VCP21...OPERATIONAL.