Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 02/25/02

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE JUST TO OUR WEST...AND THE JET STREAM WILL STAY FAR TO THE NORTH FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.

.DISCUSSION...THE INVERSION APPEARS TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1000 FEET...AND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRENDS FOR TONIGHT...THIS COULD BECOME EVEN MORE SHALLOW...AS THE LAX ACARS ARE INDICATING UP THERE WITH A 300-FOOT INVERSION. THUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MESAS...AND MAINLY SOUTH. DEW POINTS ARE QUITE HIGH EVEN UP NORTH AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE...BUT THE DEW POINTS ARE PROBABLY JUST AT THE SURFACE AND THE MARINE LAYER IS NIL THERE...SO MORE DEW THAN FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE. STILL...AREAS AROUND CHINO COULD SEE SOME GROUND FOG.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 00Z AVN APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THIS SO I WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z MSO SOLUTION. OVERALL...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MINIMAL ABOVE 850 MB...SO THIS WILL JUST BE A GRADIENT WIND...AND THUS MOST IF NOT ALL WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH. WITH 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 13 DEG C...VALLEY TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH LOCAL VALUES OF 85. HOWEVER...A SEA BREEZE WITH GENERALLY A NW COMPONENT SHOULD IMPACT THE COAST BOTH DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST SEA BREEZE ON MONDAY VERSUS TUESDAY DUE TO SOME SYNOPTIC HELP SINCE WE WILL STILL BE ONSHORE TO THE EAST.

THERE IS NO GOOD SIGN OF RAIN SOON...EVEN THOUGH THE MRF HAS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FEW RUNS WILL GIVE US A CLUE AS TO THE CHANCES OF A PATTERN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE CONFIDENCE OF A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A QUICK ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.SAN...NONE.

MAXWELL



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. WEAK OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AT TIMES...STRONGEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CA CST THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NWLY FLOW PATTERN OVR THE INTERIOR W AND ROCKIES. THIS WL BRING PDS OF GENERALLY WK OFSHR FLOW TO SW CA THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE PD OF STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW END OF ADV LVLS IN THE WINDIER LOCATIONS.

ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LYR HAS DECRD SIGNIFICANLY IN DEPTH FM 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE INVERSION TOP NR 1200 FT. ETA SHOWS A WK CSTL EDDY THIS MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS...IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND LCLLY DENSE FOG...OVER THE IMMEDIATE CSTL WTRS...EXTENDING LCLLY INLAND ALG THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY CSTS. CHINO WAS ALSO REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF ONE HALE MILE IN FOG. STRATUS MAY EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE MESAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NR THE CST. CLRG MAY BE A LTL SLOWER THIS MORNING THAN SUN MORNING AS ELY/NELY FLOW ABV THE INVERSION IS A LTL WEAKER.

OFSHR PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS AND OFSHR FLOW ALF SHOULD KP STRATUS OFF THE CST TONIGHT AND TUE. ETA DEVELOPS A WK EDDY TUE NIGHT INTO WED...CONSISTENT WITH LAST NIGHTS AVN. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE LYR...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LCLLY DENSE FOG COULD RETURN TO THE CST INLAND TO THE MESAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. FM WED NIGHT ON...WITH THE UPR RDG ALG THE CST AND WK OFSHR LWR LVL FLOW... STRATUS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AVN/MRF CONTINUES TO MOVE QUITE A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LVL MSTR ACROSS SRN CA MID WEEK. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THU.

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN