EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 330 AM PST WED FEB 27 2002
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
A COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
.DISCUSSION...ETA HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WAS
LARGELY FOLLOWED DURG THE SHORTER TERM WITH THE ECMWF PREFERRED
BEYOND 60 HOURS. ETA MAINTAINS A COASTAL EDDY INTO FRI MORNING.
ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION...SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE TOP NR 1000 FT AND THE BASE BLO 500 FT.
ETA SHOWS LTL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR THIS MORNING...A LTL
DEEPENING TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO REACH LWR CSTL VLYS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...THEN ADDITIONAL DEEPENING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
FOR GREATER COVERAGE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VLYS AND SOME COVERAGE
IN THE INLAND EMPIRE.
ETA IS WKR WITH THE OFSHR FLOW FOR FRI MORNING THAN THE AVN AND
GIVEN THE AVN'S RECENT PERFORMANCE IN OVERDOING OFFSHORE
FLOW...PREFER THE WKR ETA. DURG THE PAST WEEK...ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BETTER THAN THE MRF IN MAINTAINING THE CURRENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH THE UPR RDG ALONG THE W CST.
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN