AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDFWA 1000 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2002
EVE UPR AIR SOUNDING FM DTX...ALONG WITH LAPS SOUNDING FROM
SBN...AND ACARS EASTBOUND FM ORD INDICATING EXTREME INSTABILITY OVR
SRN LM WITH LOW LVL WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY THAN FORECAST BY
EARLIER MODELS. WSETA AND RUC INDICATING RETURN TO NWLY FLOW IN LOW
LVLS FM 03Z-09Z, THEN BACKING WEST AGAIN BY 12Z. NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO, AS TROFING ALONG SE LM SHORLINE APPEARS TO BE
INDUCED BY LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCE BTWN WATER AND ARCTIC AMS AND THUS
EXPECT WL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF WINDS DO VEER NW FOR A PD
OVRNGT, APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT DURATION OF SNOWFALL WL BE LONG ENUF
FOR 6 INCHES IN NRN INDIANA OVRNGT. THUS, WL DROP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR INDIANA COUNTIES AND LEAVE UP FOR MI.
TROFING ALONG SRN LM SHORELINE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN STRONGER WINDS
THAN FCST OVR SRN ZONES. SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONTG OVR SWRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT. WL MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND MENTION DRIFITNG SW, BUT, THINK THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING GRDLY
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT WKNS.
MIN TEMPS GNRLY LOOK GOOD, XCP IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SOME
CLRG WL ALLOW MINS TO GO DOWN CLOSE TO ZERO.
.IWX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT FOR BERRIEN...CASS...ST
JOSEPH COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN
JT