SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 900 AM PST WED MAR 6 2002
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. THE FIRST IS A FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. IT IS ALREADY BRINGING
RAIN TO NORTHERN SLO CO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVES INTO CEN CA THU MORNING
AND ADVANCES RAPIDLY ON NW WINDS THRU SRN CA...EXITING OVERNIGHT. FRI
AND SAT LOOK DRY...WITH NW TO N WINDS ON FRI AND STRONG OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ON SAT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE ON SUN...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL QPFS WITH THE MESO-
ETA BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE AVN. AT THIS TIME...THE RAIN BAND ON
RADAR LOOKS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN...AND OUR QPF FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AGREEMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP TOTALS UP SLIGHTLY IN SLO AND W SBA
CO AS JET DYNAMICS MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TOTALS THERE. ACARS SHOWS
FREEZING LEVEL STILL ABOVE 11000 FT...BUT THAT SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY
LATER TODAY TO ABOUT 6000 FT. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THAT EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ATTM. BUT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
THU STORM LOOKS MUCH COLDER...BUT PROBABLY A BIT DRIER. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP THU TO 5000 FT...THEN DOWN TO 4500 FEET THU NIGHT AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY INDICATE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
FOR THU.
SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE
LAST FEW RUNS. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN CEN CST...
AND A CHC FOR RAIN SRN CA.
LAX 675. DANIELSON
.LOX...NONE.