Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 03/29/02

...UPDATE TO DISCUSS CONTINUATION OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS...

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE AND VELOCITY LOOPS INDICATING SOME AREAS IN ZONE 35 AND NORTHERN 36 COULD SEEING GUSTS TO 60 KTS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOUNTAIN WAVE STRONGEST ITS BEEN FOR A FEW HOURS. MEDICINE BOW PROFILIER SHOWING 50 KTS JUST OFF SURFACE. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE. LATEST MM5 RUNS SHOW DECREASE BY 21Z. HAVE EXTENDED WARNING FOR ZONES 35...36...38 AND 39. D-L .DEN...HIGH WIND WRNG IN AND NR FTHLS THIS AFTN...ZNS 35..36..38 AND 39.



FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT INCLUDES LOW TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER... AND VISIBILITY. TACKLING THE LOW TEMPERATURES FIRST...DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS AT THIS HOUR. 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND ACARS/MAPS SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE COAST. THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF SEA FOG MOVING INLAND. FEEL THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

IN THE MARINE ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SHORELINE.

.HGX...NONE.

PL-40 38



.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND SUN AND MON...BRINGING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND APRIL FOOLS DAY COLD FRONT...UPPER WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST...BRINGING TEMPORARY COOLING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MDL MYSTERY...AS INITIALIZATION OFF ACARS/SATELLITE SUGGESTING AVN HANDLING UPSTREAM JET/VORT MAXES VERY WELL...WITH MORE DIFF IN ETA...PTLY EXPLAINING EMERGING MDL DIFF. AVN NOW WKR THAN STG ETA - AND GIVEN CONSISTENT TREND OF AVN PAST 6 RUNS...PREFERRED. DEEP STNRY LOW NR 40N/160W AMPLIFYING RIDGE NR 135W. SECOND DEEP LOW N OF YUKON FEEDING COLD AIR SWD ACRS AK INTO TOP OF RIDGE WHERE CONVERGENCE OF FLOWS OCCUR AND THEN STREAMS EWD INTO B.C. STRENGTH OF RIDGE IS DOMINANT FORCE AS IT IS KEEPS THESE CONVERGING FLOWS FARTHER N. EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW SERIES OF WK PERTURBATIONS AND MNML MSTR THAT WILL JUST BRUSH NRN AREAS. GIVEN CRUX OF COLD AIR RMNG N...SLP PRESS FIELDS MUCH WKR...AS TREND SUGGESTED. THUS CUTTING WAY BACK ON PCPN TODAY...XCPT RMNS OF CONV ZONE NRN PGTSND INTO MTNS. NXT WAVE SLIDING ACRS NRN AREAS SAT/SUN...WITH LOTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SPRDG NWD. WILL AGAIN BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO UPPER 50S...AND MAYBE 60 FOR SAT WITH SOME MORE SUN. SUBTLE SHIFT IN UPR RIDGE POSN SUN FURTHER W TO NR 140W THAT OPEN DOOR FOR COLDER NLY FLOW TO DROP S INTO PAC NW. MAIN AREA OF COLD AIR RMNG WELL E... YET ENUF TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS SUN/MON...WITH COLD HI PRES SETTING UP E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...YET ENUF TO GENERATE DRY NE FLOW ACRS AREA BEGINNING LATE MON. XTNDD...MANY SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN HEMISPHERIC FLOW LIKELY NOT PICKED UP BY SPECTRAL MDL...THUS DIFFERENCES FM MDL TO MDL RUNS. YET MDLS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESS BLOCKING RIDGE NR 140W SUN TO A POSN ALG CST BY WED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFCANT WRMG. WILL BREAK UP XTND TO REFLECT APRIL FOOLS DAY SHOWERS FOLLOWING BY TRUE SPRING WARMING. YET BY THU NO CONSISTENCY AS NEW MRF RAPIDLY BRINGS NXT WAVE INTO CWA. DO NOT LIKE THIS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND POOR HANDLING OF SHORTER WAVELENGHTS. QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 446 SEA 111 OLM 111

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT...

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.