Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 04/12/02

EDDY CRCLN CONTS TO SPIN ACRS THE CSTL WATERS THIS A.M.. LOW CLDS HAVE SPREAD INTO ALL CSTL SXNS S OF PT CONCEPTION EARLY THIS A.M....A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THIS TIME THU A.M....AND EXTENDED FARTHER WWD ACRS SBA CNTY. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MARINE LAYER WAS BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 FT DEEP. WITH EDDY CRCLN...SOME POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEEPENING... AND WKNG NLY GRADS...XPCT LOW CLDS TO PUSH INTO ALL VLY LOCATIOS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WITH THE POSSIBLE XCPTN OF THE SANTA CLARITA VLY. COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN THIS A.M....MAINLY IN THE VLYS. N OF PT CONCEPTION...PATCHY LOW CLDS/DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING TO DVLP EARLY THIS A.M.. AND...WITH NLY GRADS WKNG...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OFF THE CST MAY MOVE ONSHR BY DAYBREAK. LCLLY GUSTY NLY WNDS CONTD IN THE MTNS EARLY THIS A.M....BUT WERE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LVLS IN MOST AREAS.

06Z ETA SHOWS THE EDDY CRCLN LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ON THU... THE EDDY CRCLN LINGERED INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN LONGER THAN THE 06Z ETA INDICATED. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS LINGERED RIGHT AT THE BEACHES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...XPCT CLRG PATTERN TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO THU...WITH LOW CLOUDS CLRG IN ALL AREAS XCPT FOR SOME BEACH LOCATIONS S OF PT CONCEPTION. HWVR...THE MORE XTNSV LOW CLOUD COVERAGE...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LYR...AND WKR NLY GRADS THIS A.M. COULD DELAY CLEARING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY. MODELS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE SPRDG ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND A WK SHORT WAVE...ALG WITH ANOTHER INCRS IN NLY GRADS. BLV GUSTY WINDS TODAY WL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS...DSRTS AND THE CENTRAL CST...WHILE LINGERING EDDY CRCLN AND MARINE LAYER KEEP WNDS FROM REACHING THE SFC IN CSTL AND MOST VLY LOCATIONS S OF PT CONCEPTION. WITH LTL CHANGE IN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 850/950 MB TODAY...XPCT MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THU IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS. GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE TODAY SUGGESTS COOLING FOR CSTL/VLY ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACRS L.A./VTU COUNTIES. INCRSG NLY FLOW MAY HELP REDUCE SOME OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE ACRS SLO/SBA COUNTIES TODAY.

UPR HIGH ACRS THE ERN PAC WL BEGIN TO BUILD EWD INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...THEN HOLD RATHER STRONGLY INTO SUN. LOW LVL NLY GRADS SHOULD CONT TO PRODUCE LCLLY GUSTY NWLY WNDS IN THE MTNS TONIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH MDT NWLY WNDS EACH AFTERNOON ALG THE CNTRL CST. LCLLY GUSTY WINDS MAY SPRD INTO AREAS BELOW PASSES AND CYNS OF SRN SBA CNTY ANY OF THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. 06Z ETA INDICATES EDDY CRCLNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FCST AREA...AND BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPRDG ACRS THE AREA...MARINE INVERSION IS XPCTD TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME...WL FCST SOME REDUCTION IN LOW CLDS IN THE VLYS FOR TONIGHT...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK FURTHER. REGARDLESS...XPCT QUICK BURN OFF OF THE LOW CLDS ON SAT. DECENT THICKNESS RISES AND SEVERAL DEGS OF WARMING AT 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO WARMING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SAT. LOW LVL FLOW MAY BE OFSHR ENOUGH ALG THE CNTRL CST TO ALLOW FOR SOME CSTL LOCATIONS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S SAT. SOME OF THE WARMER VLY LOCATIONS COULD APCH 90 DEGS SAT IF THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS EFFECTIVELY SQUEEZED OUT... BUT THAT IS OFTEN A SLOW PROCESS...SO WL NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM.

XPCT LOW CLDS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CSTL SXNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES SAT NIGHT/SUN A.M. WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY CRCLN. SHOULD BE A QUICK BURNOFF OF ANY CLDS ON SUNDAY. UPR RIDGE ACRS THE AREA WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FLATTEN ON SUN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PAC NW CAUSES THE WESTERLY JET TO SAG SWD DOWN THE W CST. HWVR...WITH LIMITED CSTL MARINE INFLUENCE...WK ONSHR FLOW AND VERY WARM TEMPS AT 850/950MB IN THE MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SUN. IN FACT...SUN MAY WELL BE AS WARM AS...IF NOT WARMER THAN SAT IN MANY CSTL AND VLY LOCATIONS. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WL DROP INTO THE PAC NW AND DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN NIGHT AND MON. SIGNIFICANT THICKNESS FALLS ACRS THE FCST AREA...ALONG WITH SHARP DECREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACRS THE FCST AREA ON MON. WDSPRD STRONG NWLY WINDS ARE XPCTD ACRS THE AREA AS WELL ON MON. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE AND WED...BUT THEY ALL GENERALLY KEEP A TROUGH ACRS THE WRN STATES. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ACRS THE AREA AT OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN...ANY CLEAR NIGHT IN THE COOL AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN SOME RATHER COLD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).



LTL CHG TO PREVIOUS FCST. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT NWRN IN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. DEWPOINT HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN MID 50S. FCST SOUNDING DATA INDIACATES LI/S IN -2 TO -3 RANGE AT 12Z. POOR FRONTAL TIMING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ACARS DATA FROM A NORTHBOUND DEPARTURE OUT OF ORD AT 0300 SHOWED WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FEET /AT TOP OF BOUNDARY ISOTHERMAL LAYER/ TO BE SW AT 47 KTS. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP ACROSS LOWER MI PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEADING EDGE OF HIER DEWPOINT AIR. SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPROUT UP ACROSS FA NXT FEW HRS. NOOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ON RADAR ATTM BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD TSTMS DVLP. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ZFP.

HIGH PRES OVER NE FCST TO BUILD OVER WRN GRTLKS BY TNGT YIELDING VEERING WIND FLOW TO NE BY THIS EVE. THIS WILL CONT ON SAT MOST AREAS SO WILL HAVE TO PLAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS INVOF LM.

WX NIL OVR WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPS AND STG WAA PATN SETTING UP SUN-TUE.

.CHI...NONE

MERZLOCK



WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A TAD MORE AND TO BRING IN THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. THERE'S A LOT OF WWA SEEN IN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE ON ACARS SOUNDINGS AND ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE LIGHT PCPN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TO IFR LEVELS. AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE THE ODDS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO DEVELOP INCREASES.

SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 4KM FROM 00Z LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. WILL ADD A POP AS WELL TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOG SHOULD BE RATHER DENSE NEAR THE COAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH US NEEDING AN ADVISORY.

HAVE NOT UPDATED BEYOND TONIGHT AS I HAVE NOT YET HAD TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE...WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR SEAS AS WAVEWATCH III INDICATES A LITTLE INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 4-5 FT LEVEL.

*******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****************************

MDLS PERSISTENT W/ HANGING CDFNT UP TO N AND W OF CWA...? IS HOW FAR S AND E TO XTND CHC SHRAS IN ANY GIVEN PD BGNG SAT. IN GENL... PREFER ETA HANDLING OF SYS. WL NOT USE ANY LKLY POP ATTM AND KEEP ALL MENT IN CHC CAT...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE DESPITE MDL CONSISTENCY AND IN PART DUE TO DESIRE TO NOT MAKE IT SOUND LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR THE WKND...WHICH IT WON'T BE UNLESS FNT DECIDES TO STALL OVR CWA VS 75-100 MI NW.

FNT FINALLY EXITS SUN NITE AND THEN A FEW DAYS OF ABV NRML TEMPS. BASED ON RECENTLY ARVG MEX MOS...MAY STL BE A LITTLE LO ON MAXTS NXT WK BUT WON'T MAKE MAJOR CHGS JUST YET. YDAS FCSTS TRENDED IN THAT DIR AND WL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS OCEAN WTRS ONLY...ANZ350-353-355.

$$

TONGEUE/REYNOLDS



WE WILL HAVE TO DO AN UPDATE AS 6000 FT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE AT 215/25 AT 6K PER RECENT ACARS OUT OF EWR AND WILL ADVECT THESE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. 06Z ETA SOUNDING ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THESE CLOUDS...BUT BASED ON THE TREND TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND AS WELL AS A LOWER DECK AROUND 1500 FT.

WILL HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY 9 AM. WILL ALSO HAVE TO LOOK AT TEMPS WHICH I'LL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER.

*******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****************************

MDLS PERSISTENT W/ HANGING CDFNT UP TO N AND W OF CWA...? IS HOW FAR S AND E TO XTND CHC SHRAS IN ANY GIVEN PD BGNG SAT. IN GENL... PREFER ETA HANDLING OF SYS. WL NOT USE ANY LKLY POP ATTM AND KEEP ALL MENT IN CHC CAT...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE DESPITE MDL CONSISTENCY AND IN PART DUE TO DESIRE TO NOT MAKE IT SOUND LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR THE WKND...WHICH IT WON'T BE UNLESS FNT DECIDES TO STALL OVR CWA VS 75-100 MI NW.

NOT MUCH IN WAY OF PTCHY FG ATTM BUT W/ DECRG T/TD SPRDS...XPCT A BIT MORE TO DVLP ERLY THIS AM AND AGN TNGT/TMRW NITE.

FNT FINALLY EXITS SUN NITE AND THEN A FEW DAYS OF ABV NRML TEMPS. BASED ON RECENTLY ARVG MEX MOS...MAY STL BE A LITTLE LO ON MAXTS NXT WK BUT WON'T MAKE MAJOR CHGS JUST YET. YDAS FCSTS TRENDED IN THAT DIR AND WL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

MARINE: CONT SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WTRS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS FM PRVS FCST. WNDS SHUD RMN BLO CRIT THRU SHORT TERM.

WRK PRODUCTS AVBL...FINALS GONE W/IN 10 MIN. SUM PRELIM CCF NMBRS TO PONDER BLO...

FCSTID = 14 EWR 64 54 67 55 / 10 20 40 40 MGJ 62 49 67 51 / 10 20 50 50 DXR 60 48 66 50 / 10 20 40 40 NYC 62 53 65 54 / 10 20 40 40 ISP 59 50 64 53 / 10 20 40 40 GON 55 50 61 52 / 10 20 30 30

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS OCEAN WTRS ONLY...ANZ350-353-355.

REYNOLDS