Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 04/13/02

QUICK UPDATE FOR LONG ISLAND TO GO PARTLY SUNNY AND UP TEMPS A BIT. ELSEWHERE FCST IS WORKING OUT OK.

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WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A TAD MORE AND TO BRING IN THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. THERE'S A LOT OF WWA SEEN IN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE ON ACARS SOUNDINGS AND ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE LIGHT PCPN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TO IFR LEVELS. AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE THE ODDS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO DEVELOP INCREASES.

SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 4KM FROM 00Z LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. WILL ADD A POP AS WELL TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOG SHOULD BE RATHER DENSE NEAR THE COAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH US NEEDING AN ADVISORY.

HAVE NOT UPDATED BEYOND TONIGHT AS I HAVE NOT YET HAD TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE...WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR SEAS AS WAVEWATCH III INDICATES A LITTLE INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 4-5 FT LEVEL.

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MDLS PERSISTENT W/ HANGING CDFNT UP TO N AND W OF CWA...? IS HOW FAR S AND E TO XTND CHC SHRAS IN ANY GIVEN PD BGNG SAT. IN GENL... PREFER ETA HANDLING OF SYS. WL NOT USE ANY LKLY POP ATTM AND KEEP ALL MENT IN CHC CAT...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE DESPITE MDL CONSISTENCY AND IN PART DUE TO DESIRE TO NOT MAKE IT SOUND LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR THE WKND...WHICH IT WON'T BE UNLESS FNT DECIDES TO STALL OVR CWA VS 75-100 MI NW.

FNT FINALLY EXITS SUN NITE AND THEN A FEW DAYS OF ABV NRML TEMPS. BASED ON RECENTLY ARVG MEX MOS...MAY STL BE A LITTLE LO ON MAXTS NXT WK BUT WON'T MAKE MAJOR CHGS JUST YET. YDAS FCSTS TRENDED IN THAT DIR AND WL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS OCEAN WTRS ONLY...ANZ350-353-355.

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TONGEUE/REYNOLDS



ANOTHER EDDY CRCLN IN PROGRESS ACRS THE CSTL WATERS THIS A.M. LOW CLDS PATTERN WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN AT THIS TIME ON FRI...WITH LOW CLDS INTO ALL CSTL AREAS OF PT CONCEPTION...AND INTO THE VLYS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES WITH THE XCPTN OF THE SANTA CLARITA VLY. WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 FT DEEP...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR THIS A.M.. N OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...AND BLV ONLY LOCAL DENSE FOG AT WORST WL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. LCLLY GUSTY NWLY WNDS WERE AGAIN OCCURRING IN THE MTNS...BUT WERE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LVLS.

ONSHR GRADS HAVE WKND DURG THE PAST 24 HRS. WITH UPR RDG BLDG INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY...MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER. 06Z ETA INDICATED A RATHER EARLY DISSIPATION OF THE EDDY CRCLN TODAY. THESE FACTORS ALL POINT TO FASTER CLRG OF THE LOW CLDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE INCRGLY STRONG INVERSION COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN AT SOME BEACH LOCATIONS S OF PT CONCEPTION TODAY. WITH INCRG THICKNESS VALUES AND SEVERAL DEGS OF WARMING AT 850 MB...XPCT MTNS AND DSRTS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGS TODAY...WITH TEMPS APCHG RECORD LVLS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. TEMPS AT 950 MB HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY N OF PT CONCEPTION AND WITH WK OFSHR GRADS AND LIMITED MARINE INFLUENCE...TEMPS WL RISE QUICKLY...POSSIBLY INTO THE 80S EVEN IN SOME CSTL LOCATIONS. S OF PT CONCEPTION...WITH A MUCH GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE DUE TO THE EDDY CRCLN...950 MB TEMPS WERE MUCH COOLER. 06Z ETA SHOWS CONSIDERABLE WARMING AT 950 MB S OF PT CONCEPTION TODAY... WHICH WILL OCCUR ASSUMING MARINE INVERSION LOWERS QUICKLY ENOUGH. TRICKIEST TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY WL BE ACRS THE VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WHICH WL BE THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE MARINE LAYER AND THE WARM DRY AIR ABOVE. IF THE INVERSION LOWERS ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MARINE LYR...TEMPS WL APCH 90 DEGS IN THE WARMER VLY LOCATIONS TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE INVERION LOWERS ONLY SLOWLY TODAY... MAX TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER.

XPCT LOW CLDS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT/EARLY SUN WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY CRCLN. ANY LOW CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY. UPR RIDGE ACRS THE AREA WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FLATTEN ON SUN AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURG THE DAY...SUNDAY WL START OFF WITH LESS AND IN MANY AREAS... NO STRATUS...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...WK ONSHR GRADS...AND VERY WARM TEMPS AT 850/950MB. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY ON SUN... AND IT MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING WARMER THAN TODAY...AT LEAST IN MANY CSTL AND VLY LOCATIONS S OF PT CONCEPTION. STRONG SHORT WAVE WL DROP INTO THE PAC NW AND DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN NIGHT AND MON. SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN THICKNESS VALUES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA WL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MON. WDSPRD STRONG NWLY WINDS ARE XPCTD ACRS THE AREA AS WELL...PROBABLY REACHING ADVISORY LVLS...AT LEAST IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTD TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ALL GENERALLY KEEP A TROUGH ACRS THE WRN STATES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD KEEP GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE INVERSION SHOULD BE WIPED OUT...SO XPCT LIMITED IF ANY LOW CLDS THRU THE WEEK. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION...CLEAR NIGHTS IN THE COOL AIR MASS WL RESULT IN SOME RATHER COLD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPR TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO THE E BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WITH LOW LVL FLOW POSSIBLY TURNING OFSHR...SOME WARMING MAY BEGIN W OF THE MTNS THU OR ESPECIALLY FRI.

LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).