AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NEW YORK NY
AFDOKX 1149 AM EDT WED APR 24 2002
DOING A MINOR UPDATE TO CTZ008-012 FOR THE STATOCUMULUS THAT HAS
FROMED WITH THE INSTABILITY.
CURRENT SUNNY FCST LOOKING GREAT. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY INTO
THE LOWER 50S NOW AND MAXES OF AROUND 60 LOOK GOOD BASED ON
12Z OKX SOUNDING...LAMP AND ACARS PROFILES.
SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP AND STONY BROOK MM5 4KM HAS THIS CAPTURED
VERY NICELY.
MARINE...PLAN ON SCA GOING UP AT 3 PM.
.................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
HI PRES CENTERED OVR VA/WV CONTS TO BLD EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TODAY. SFC TROF CDFNT APCHS TONIGHT AND STALLS WEST OF THE AREA
THU AS LO DEVLOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ACRS SRN NJ. AVN SEEMS TO BE
HANDLEING THE SLOUTION BEST...MOST CONSISENT WITH TIMING ALTHO A BIT
WEAKER WITH LO MOVG OFF THE CST THU NIGHT. LO MOVS OFF QUICKLY THU
NIGHT. QPF WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ON ETA AND
AVN. AVN/NGM TMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
MARINE: WINDS INCREASE TO SCA THU AS LO INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. WAVE WATCH III BRINGS SEAS UP TO SCA TONIGHT BUT APPEARS TO
BE A BIT OVR DONE AND WL HOLD OFF TIL THU WITH THE WINDS. WL INCLUDE
HEADLINE. OTHER POSSIBILITY IS SOME MINOR CSTL FLDG ARND TIMES OF HI
TIDES THU AFTN...AVN NUMBERS ARE CLOSE. ONLY CAVEAT IS SYS MOVG
QUICKLY AND MAY BE ONLY TIDE CYCLE AFFECTED...ALSO THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO. WL NOT MENTION AND WAIT FOR NEXT RUN.
WL CONT THE FROST ADV AND FREEZE WARNING INTO EARLY THIS AM.
.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NONE.
MARINE...SCA WILL BE NEEDED ALL WATERS THURSDAY.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
AFDOKX 1040 AM EDT WED APR 24 2002
CURRENT SUNNY FCST LOOKING GREAT. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY INTO
THE LOWER 50S NOW AND MAXES OF AROUND 60 LOOK GOOD BASED ON
12Z OKX SOUNDING...LAMP AND ACARS PROFILES.
SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP AND STONY BROOK MM5 4KM HAS THIS CAPTURED
VERY NICELY.
MARINE...PLAN ON SCA GOING UP AT 3 PM.
.................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
HI PRES CENTERED OVR VA/WV CONTS TO BLD EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TODAY. SFC TROF CDFNT APCHS TONIGHT AND STALLS WEST OF THE AREA
THU AS LO DEVLOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ACRS SRN NJ. AVN SEEMS TO BE
HANDLEING THE SLOUTION BEST...MOST CONSISENT WITH TIMING ALTHO A BIT
WEAKER WITH LO MOVG OFF THE CST THU NIGHT. LO MOVS OFF QUICKLY THU
NIGHT. QPF WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE ON ETA AND
AVN. AVN/NGM TMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
MARINE: WINDS INCREASE TO SCA THU AS LO INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. WAVE WATCH III BRINGS SEAS UP TO SCA TONIGHT BUT APPEARS TO
BE A BIT OVR DONE AND WL HOLD OFF TIL THU WITH THE WINDS. WL INCLUDE
HEADLINE. OTHER POSSIBILITY IS SOME MINOR CSTL FLDG ARND TIMES OF HI
TIDES THU AFTN...AVN NUMBERS ARE CLOSE. ONLY CAVEAT IS SYS MOVG
QUICKLY AND MAY BE ONLY TIDE CYCLE AFFECTED...ALSO THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO. WL NOT MENTION AND WAIT FOR NEXT RUN.
WL CONT THE FROST ADV AND FREEZE WARNING INTO EARLY THIS AM.
.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NONE.
MARINE...SCA WILL BE NEEDED ALL WATERS THURSDAY.
$$
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHOU 957 AM CDT WED APR 24 2002
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND MEXICO LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE AREA
WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
AT 12Z BETWEEN 70 AND 74...HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AT 850 AND
700 MB. ALSO A CAP WAS PRESENT AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WERE IN
EXCESS OF 12 CELSIUS. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY INVOLVES THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
AFTER CHECKING THROUGH THE AREA SOUNDINGS AND THE ACARS/MAPS
SOUNDINGS...FEEL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST.
THIS AGREES WITH THE 12Z FWC NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR CLOUDS THERE WAS A
MOSTLY CLEAR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE AREA. THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE IN MIND...NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
PL-40
43
.HGX...NONE.
PREV PRELIMS...
CLL BE 088/063 074/063 082 033
IAH BE 087/066 076/065 082 023
GLS BE 082/072 076/068 080 0-3