Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 05/02/02

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND PARK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...WELL...TIME TO GIVE UP THE GHOST. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND PIREPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOPS 3000-3500 FEET OVER PUGET SOUND. WINDS ALOFT WHICH WERE NORTHEAST ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS MORNING HAVE TURNED SOUTHWEST UP TO 5000 FEET. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING EAST OF THE CASCADES ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THICKENING UP THE MARINE LAYER EVEN MORE. WILL GO WITH AVN MOS AND CUT NGM MOS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MAX TEMPS THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY. MAIN EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE ENHANCE THE MARINE LAYER EVEN MORE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA THE WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE COULD CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. 850 MB FLOW RIGHT DOWN THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONVERGENCE ZONE SIGNATURE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THE CONVERGENCE NORTH OF DOWNTOWN SEATTLE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR EVERETT THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS REMAINING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SATURDAY. .EXTENDED...EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING IT WAY OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO LEVELS SEEN IN DECEMBER. WILL NOT GO THAT FAR BUT WILL TAKE SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW PASS LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW MAXS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY THROUGH MONDAY. MRF SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY BUT ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL STAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY. CURRENT MRF SHOWS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS THIS ONE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE MAY IS GOING TO BE OFF TO A COLD START. felton

UIL 0222 SEA 0232 OLM 0222

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

.KATX...VCP32/CSR31...OPERATIONAL.



SYNOPSIS...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR NOW BASICALLY CONTINUING FORECAST AS IS BASED ON NWP SUPPORT OF THIS SOLUTION.

SIDE NOTE...HAVE LOADED MAX SUPPRESSION IN ON WSR-88D...BUT RADAR IS DETECTING ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT REFUTED BY ACARS DATA AND MODELS. THIS IS SEEN IN KDIX AND KBOX RADARS AS WELL. I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE IN MAY AND ONLY EXPLANATION IS NOCTURNAL BIRD MIGRATIONS. IT WILL CLEAR UP AT SUNRISE IN ANY CASE.

SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY CHANGING SITUATION. PCPN OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS MOVING EAST AT AT LEAST 40 KT. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE START OF THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 6 AM IN THE CITY AND BY 8 AM FOR CT AND EASTERN LI. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING WITH 50 TO 75 KT WINDS RIDING UP THE ISENTROPIC 295 TO 300 K SURFACES. THUS GOING WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE AM WITH CERTAINLY SOME URBAN PONDING...NOT A VERY GOOD RUSH HOUR.

WINDS WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY AS THE RAIN BEGINS WITH THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KT BECOME ISOTHERMAL ALLOW GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 TO WORK DOWN TO SURFACE. WINDS THEN RELAX AS WE START TO WARM SECTOR THE REAL PROBLEM IS FORECASTING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE ETA AND MM5 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND STALL THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THIS RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR CT AND NEAR 80 IN THE WARM SECTOR.

SEVERE WX...I THINK SPC'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS RIGHT ON AND WILL GO WITH THIS. CONCUR ON CELLS OR CLUSTER OF CELLS MOVING WEST TO EAST RATHER THAN A SQUALL LINE WITH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE MM5 GRELL PARAMETERIZATION DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FOR US THIS AFTERNOON.

FRI...HI PRES WORKS IN FROM THE W IN WAKE OF CDFNT HEADG OUT TO SEA. GSTY NWLY FLOW WL CONT TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO RGN. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL PER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM AS HIGH AS 9000 FEET.

EXTENDED UNCHANGED AS IT AGREES WITH 00Z GFS RUNS. A RATHER PLEASENT WEEKEND FOR THE REGION.

MARINE...SCA FOR TODAY. SE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND THERE'S A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 12-15Z WHERE WE MAY HAVE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. WILL ISSUE A MWS FOR THIS MORNING'S POTENTIAL GUST TO GALE FORCE. EXPECT FREQUENT GALE GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION ON THIS MPC...BOX AND PHI.

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TODAY. GALL WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY ALL WATERS.

$$

TONGUE



DECIDED TO UPDATE ZONES AS STEADY RAINS ENDING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREV THOUGHT. OTRW PREV FCST APPEARS ON TRACK AND REASONABLE WITH DEALING WITH RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION TDY. APPEARS TO BE A REPEAT OF LAST SUNDAYS WX WERE WRMFNT WL NOT MAKE IT THRU THE ENTIRE RGN. FNT MAY DRIFT UP ACRS LONG ISLAND BUT COOL ONSHR FLOW WL STILL KEEP THIS AREA STABLE. WL CONT TO PLAY WRMFNT PASSG UP THRU EXTRME WRN PORTION OF AREA AND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LI SOUND WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR INTERESTG AFTN/EVE TSTMS THESE PARTS. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PREV ZONE PACKAGE IS FINE SO NO UPDATE THIS MRNG.

PREV FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SYNOPSIS...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR NOW BASICALLY CONTINUING FORECAST AS IS BASED ON NWP SUPPORT OF THIS SOLUTION.

SIDE NOTE...HAVE LOADED MAX SUPPRESSION IN ON WSR-88D...BUT RADAR IS DETECTING ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT REFUTED BY ACARS DATA AND MODELS. THIS IS SEEN IN KDIX AND KBOX RADARS AS WELL. I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE IN MAY AND ONLY EXPLANATION IS NOCTURNAL BIRD MIGRATIONS. IT WILL CLEAR UP AT SUNRISE IN ANY CASE.

SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY CHANGING SITUATION. PCPN OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS MOVING EAST AT AT LEAST 40 KT. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE START OF THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 6 AM IN THE CITY AND BY 8 AM FOR CT AND EASTERN LI. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING WITH 50 TO 75 KT WINDS RIDING UP THE ISENTROPIC 295 TO 300 K SURFACES. THUS GOING WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE AM WITH CERTAINLY SOME URBAN PONDING...NOT A VERY GOOD RUSH HOUR.

WINDS WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY AS THE RAIN BEGINS WITH THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KT BECOME ISOTHERMAL ALLOW GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 TO WORK DOWN TO SURFACE. WINDS THEN RELAX AS WE START TO WARM SECTOR THE REAL PROBLEM IS FORECASTING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE ETA AND MM5 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND STALL THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THIS RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR CT AND NEAR 80 IN THE WARM SECTOR.

SEVERE WX...I THINK SPC'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS RIGHT ON AND WILL GO WITH THIS. CONCUR ON CELLS OR CLUSTER OF CELLS MOVING WEST TO EAST RATHER THAN A SQUALL LINE WITH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE MM5 GRELL PARAMETERIZATION DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FOR US THIS AFTERNOON.

FRI...HI PRES WORKS IN FROM THE W IN WAKE OF CDFNT HEADG OUT TO SEA. GSTY NWLY FLOW WL CONT TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO RGN. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL PER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM AS HIGH AS 9000 FEET.

EXTENDED UNCHANGED AS IT AGREES WITH 00Z GFS RUNS. A RATHER PLEASENT WEEKEND FOR THE REGION.

MARINE...SCA FOR TODAY FOR CSTL ONLY.

THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION ON THIS MPC...BOX AND PHI.

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CSTL WATERS...ANZ350-353-355. GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FRI ALL WATERS.

$$



PREV FCST APPEARS ON TRACK AND REASONABLE WITH DEALING WITH RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION TDY. APPEARS TO BE A REPEAT OF LAST SUNDAYS WX WERE WRMFNT WL NOT MAKE IT THRU THE ENTIRE RGN. FNT MAY DRIFT UP ACRS LONG ISLAND BUT COOL ONSHR FLOW WL STILL KEEP THIS AREA STABLE. WL CONT TO PLAY WRMFNT PASSG UP THRU EXTRME WRN PORTION OF AREA AND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LI SOUND WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR INTERESTG AFTN/EVE TSTMS THESE PARTS. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PREV ZONE PACKAGE IS FINE SO NO UPDATE THIS MRNG.

PREV FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SYNOPSIS...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR NOW BASICALLY CONTINUING FORECAST AS IS BASED ON NWP SUPPORT OF THIS SOLUTION.

SIDE NOTE...HAVE LOADED MAX SUPPRESSION IN ON WSR-88D...BUT RADAR IS DETECTING ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT REFUTED BY ACARS DATA AND MODELS. THIS IS SEEN IN KDIX AND KBOX RADARS AS WELL. I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE IN MAY AND ONLY EXPLANATION IS NOCTURNAL BIRD MIGRATIONS. IT WILL CLEAR UP AT SUNRISE IN ANY CASE.

SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY CHANGING SITUATION. PCPN OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS MOVING EAST AT AT LEAST 40 KT. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE START OF THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 6 AM IN THE CITY AND BY 8 AM FOR CT AND EASTERN LI. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING WITH 50 TO 75 KT WINDS RIDING UP THE ISENTROPIC 295 TO 300 K SURFACES. THUS GOING WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE AM WITH CERTAINLY SOME URBAN PONDING...NOT A VERY GOOD RUSH HOUR.

WINDS WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY AS THE RAIN BEGINS WITH THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KT BECOME ISOTHERMAL ALLOW GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 TO WORK DOWN TO SURFACE. WINDS THEN RELAX AS WE START TO WARM SECTOR THE REAL PROBLEM IS FORECASTING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE ETA AND MM5 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND STALL THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THIS RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR CT AND NEAR 80 IN THE WARM SECTOR.

SEVERE WX...I THINK SPC'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS RIGHT ON AND WILL GO WITH THIS. CONCUR ON CELLS OR CLUSTER OF CELLS MOVING WEST TO EAST RATHER THAN A SQUALL LINE WITH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY THE MM5 GRELL PARAMETERIZATION DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FOR US THIS AFTERNOON.

FRI...HI PRES WORKS IN FROM THE W IN WAKE OF CDFNT HEADG OUT TO SEA. GSTY NWLY FLOW WL CONT TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO RGN. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL PER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM AS HIGH AS 9000 FEET.

EXTENDED UNCHANGED AS IT AGREES WITH 00Z GFS RUNS. A RATHER PLEASENT WEEKEND FOR THE REGION.

MARINE...SCA FOR TODAY. SE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND THERE'S A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 12-15Z WHERE WE MAY HAVE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. WILL ISSUE A MWS FOR THIS MORNING'S POTENTIAL GUST TO GALE FORCE. EXPECT FREQUENT GALE GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION ON THIS MPC...BOX AND PHI.

.OKX... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TODAY. GALL WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY ALL WATERS.

$$



LOW CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MIXING AND H85 COLD ADVECTION. ACARS DATA SHOWS OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS REASONABLE AFTER CLOUDINESS DIMINISHES. MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR. ACARS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 100. THE RUC KEEPS THE KI LESS THAN 20 AND SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO RAISE THIS AFTERNOON/S WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE RUC AND 88D VAD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS. SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR BUT THE THREAT APPEARS SMALL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE ETA SHOWS LI/S OF 0 TO -3 TONIGHT.

FCSTID = 5 CAE 91 68 80 57 / 10 30 50 60 AGS 92 67 81 58 / 10 30 50 60 SSC 91 67 80 57 / 10 30 50 60 OGB 91 68 80 58 / 10 30 50 60

.CAE... GA...WIND ADVISORY ON AREA LAKES TODAY CWA SC...WIND ADVISORY ON AREA LAKES TODAY CWA

RJL



WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE MOSTLY SOME FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

STORM SYS TO MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LKS REGION UP THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...THEN INTO QUE TONITE. GOOD SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TONITE. UPR LOW TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE. SHORT WAVES/TROP FOLDS TO MOVE TO THE NW OF THE FA TODAY.

09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M30S-M40S TODAY WITH E-SE SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U40S-M50S TODAY AND LOOK BETTER BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. MID-LVL DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA BY LATE TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY. GOOD H85 FGEN TO AFFECT THE FA THRU LATE TODAY. BEST LOW-LVL MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.75" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS PCPN TO TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY ACRS THE FA BY LATER TODAY. 88D MOSAIC/BUFCAN SHOWS PCPN SHIELD TO START TO TAPER OFF ACRS THE FA AFTER 17Z TODAY. RUC ALSO SHOWS SOME SN POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS TODAY. 1201Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KBTV SHOWS FREEZING LVL AT LESS THAN 4KFT. KSLK HAS BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SN AND RA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SFC WARMING TO CHANGE ALL OF THIS PCPN TO RA BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD ONTO WORDING OF RA BECOMING SCT -SHRA ACRS THE FA (FROM SW TO NE) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SHOWS ANY CAPE TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY...SO SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK FOR NY STATE/SRN VT GENERALLY DISCOUNTED FOR TODAY.

GOOD H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN STRONG CAA FOR TONITE. H85 TEMPS TO GO BLO 0 DEG C ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY 12Z FRI. H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO BLO 0 DEG C BY AROUND 12Z FRI AS WELL. MID-LVLS TO BASICALLY BE DRY ACRS THE FA TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA TONITE. LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE. PW VALUES TO DECREASE TO BLO 0.5" TONITE. HAVE HELD ONTO CHC POPS (BEST CHC TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPR LOW) FOR TONITE...WITH ANY PCPN BEING -SHRASN BY LATER TONITE IN MOSTLY THE MTN ZONES. ETA BUFR DATA SHOWS ANY LK INDUCED PCPN SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TONITE THOUGH. REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC.

WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 1045 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY