Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 05/03/02

VERY QUIET DAY TODAY, AS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MARINE LYR FORMATION AND RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPS. PREVIOUS THINKING THAT INVERSION WOULD STRENTHEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE LYR MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE AS ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX ARE STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH OF AN INVERSION YET. ADDITIONALLY, VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT SHOWING MUCH MARINE LYR DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE COAST. SO AM LEANING TOWARDS SCALING BACK ON THE MARINE LYR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND DELAYING THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HARDLY FRONT PAGE NEWS, BUT IT'S ABOUT THE BIGGEST WEATHER ITEM GOING ON HERE.

TEMPS TODAY WERE WARMER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND COOL OCEAN WATERS OFFSHORE, BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE LEVELING OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND AFTER THAT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID WEEK TROF, WITH THE AVN BEING THE WEAKEST OF THEM ALL AND THE NOGAPS BEING QUITE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED. NONE OF THEM SUGGEST ANY PRECIP FOR OUR AREA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

LAX 0000. WOFFORD

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX)



ITEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SE TX. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP...LCH...AND SHV AS WELL AS THE 02Z MAPS/ACARS SOUNDING AT IAH ALL INDICATE THE CAP WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THE SUN SETS. THE STORM BETWEEN HOUSTON COUNTY AND NACOGDOCHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA...THOUGH WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY IT WILL BACK BUILD INTO HOUSTON COUNTY.

THUS...WILL LOWER THE POPS A CATEGORY ALL AREAS. WILL ADJUST WINDS IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL. AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE STATIONARY WITH ONLY A WOBBLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

PL-40 31

HGX...SCEC 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.



MARINE INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED DURG THE PAST 24 HRS...AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT. LOW CLDS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED OFF THE CST...AND HAVE ALREADY BECOME WDSPRD ACRS CSTL SNXS OF SLO/WRN SBA COUNTIES. S OF PT CONCEPTION... STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO CSTL SXNS OF L.A. CNTY...WITH SOME EXPANSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OFF THE CST. WITH MDT ONSHR GRADS... XPCT AT LEAST AREAS OF LOW CLDS TO SPRD INTO CSTL ZONES OF L.A. AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. MARINE INVERSION WAS HOVERING NEAR THAT CRITICAL HEIGHT WHICH DETERMINES WHETHER OR NOT CLDS WL SPRD INTO THE VLYS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VLYS WL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR... BUT WITH THE MDT ONSHR GRADS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW CLDS PUSHED INTO THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE VLY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE SAN GABRIEL VLY AND THE CSTL VLYS OF VTU CNTY...FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AFTER DAYBREAK. INVERSION SHOULD STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RATHER GOOD CLRG OF THE LOW CLDS IN CSTL SXNS TODAY...WITH MOST CSTL ZONES LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT 850MB AND IN THE BOUNDARY LYR ARE FCST TO BE 2 TO 4 DEG C HIGHER THAN ON THU...SO XPCT A FEW DEGS OF ADDTIONAL WARMING TODAY AWAY FROM THE CST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTS AND DSRTS.

THERE WILL BE RATHER LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPR LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK AND BROAD POSIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACRS THE AREA...AND WEAK S/WVS OCCASIONALLY RIPPLING THROUGH IN THE WNWLY FLOW ALF. WITH THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY RISE THRU SUN...XCPT CONTD GRADUAL WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...THEN LTL CHANGE ON MONDAY.

THE WEATHER IN CSTL AND VLYS ZONES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND STRENGTH OF THE ONSHR FLOW. RISING HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST SOME THINNING OF THE MARINE LAYER... BUT FREQUENT WEAK VORTS MOVING ACRS THE AREA IN WKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALF WL PROBABLY OFFSET THIS...KEEPING MARINE LAYER DEPTH RATHER SIMILAR THRU MON. 06Z ETA INDICATES A WK EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT...THEN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER CRCLN FOR SAT NIGHT. XPCT LOW CLDS TO BE RATHER WDSPRD ACRS CSTL SXNS FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...POSSIBLY SPRDG INTO THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE VLY LOCATIONS. THE MARINE INVERSION MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH THIS WEEKEND TO KEEP CLDS HANGING TOUGH NEAR THE CST...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN THE EDDY COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. W OF THE MTNS...TEMPS SHOULD EDGE UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGS BOTH TODAY AND SAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...AS THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS RISE GRADUALLY. XPCT LTL CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TROUGH ALG THE W CST IS FCST TO DEEPEN A BIT TUE...AND ESPECIALLY WED AND THU...WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ACRS SRN CA GRADUALLY LOWERING...AND ONSHR FLOW INCRSG. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TUE THRU THU...AND SHOULD BRING GENERAL COOLING TO THE FCST AREA.

LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX)



QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES...RDF...MAINLY TO CLEANUP MORNING MENTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST AS WIND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL HAVE TO TRANSFER WINDS FROM PRETTY HIGH UP TO GET 50 KT...BUT 40 WITHIN REACH. ACTUALLY ETA BUFKIT PROFILES VERY CLOSE TO OBSERVED ACARS WINDS AT 12-13Z.

ALSO...WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY NORTH ZONES AS SATELLITE IS SHOWING MORE SC MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION.

GALE UP ALL WATERS.

PW

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

CD FNT JUST S OF LI...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW AND ARE INCRG. SHRA/TSRA MOVED TO E OF CWA EARLY. WRM FNT NEVER MADE IT THRU OUR AREA THU.

CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVING. LO DEEPENS RAPIDLY THIS MRNG OVR NEW ENG. WL GET VERY WINDY ACRS FA. BUFKIT INDICATES WE SHOULD MIX THRU A RATHER DEEP LAYER. THUS...WL ISSUE WND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES. SHOULD HAVE GUSTS TO 46 MPH...BUT ALSO BELIEVE WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED SPEED INTO THE LOW 30S ESPECIALLY IN THE NY METRO AREA WITH WNW FLO. ETA/FWC/MAV GUIDANCE ALL GIVE SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KTS. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE THIS YEAR.

WL STICK TO M/SUNNY FOR TDY. INLAND ZONES WL HAVE MORE CLDS. BULK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WL PASS TO OUR N.

WNDS DIMINISH TNGT AS LO EXITS RGN AND RDG BLDS IN. RDG DOMINATES THRU WEEKEND. AS RDG SLIDES E...WL HAVE WARMING TREND. M/CLR TNGT AND SAT NGT AND M/SUNNY SAT AND SUN.

MARINE...KEEP GALE UP.

RUNNING A LITTLE LATE. AIMING FOR 4:30 AM FOR ZFP.

.OKX... CT..WIND ADVISORY TDY 14Z TO 20Z CTZ005>012. NJ...WIND ADVISORY TDY 14Z TO 20Z NJZ002>006-011. NY...WIND ADVISORY TDY 14Z TO 20Z NYZ067>081. MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...ANZ350-353-355-330-335-338.

$$



HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE ZFP FOR MOST SOME FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.

STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA TODAY. GOOD SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY AS WELL. HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE. UPR TROF/TROP FOLD TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY. SECONDARY TROF OF LOW PRESS TO SWING ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW EARLY TONITE.

09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U30S-L50S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-15G35KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-M50S AND LOOK A LIL BETTER BASED ON CURRENT OBS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. SOME MID-LVL (AND LOW-LVL) MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.3" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS SOME SCT LT PCPN TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY (WITH SN POSSIBLE ACRS THE HIGHEST TRRN). 12Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KBTV SHOWED THE FREEZING LVL BLO 2500FT. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SCT PCPN MOVING DOWN ACRS THE FA ATTM. WILL HANG ONTO CHC/SCT POPS ACRS THE FA TODAY FOR SHRASN. RUC ALSO SHOWS CAPES TO BE BLO 200 J/KG ACRS THE FA TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL IN FORECAST... THOUGH DOUBT THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

H85 TEMPS TO BE BLO 0 DEG C ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN NEUTRAL ADVECTION TONITE. COOL POOL AT H85 TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. MID-LVLS TO DRY OUT TONITE ACRS THE FA. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING ACRS THE FA TONITE (ESPECIALLY EARLY). LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI TODAY AND TONITE ACRS THE FA. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI TODAY ACRS THE FA AS WELL.

H85 WINDS TO BE 30-45 KTS OUT OF THE W-NW TODAY ACRS THE FA...H7 WINDS TO BE 35-55 KTS OUT OF THE W-NW...AND H5 WINDS TO BE 35-50+ KTS OUT OF THE W-NW (WITH TROP DIGGING DOWN TO AROUND THAT LVL). SLIGHTLY AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION NOTED AT H85/7 ONLY TODAY. 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO BE 30-50 KTS ACRS THE FA OUT OF THE NW...WITH BLYR WINDS OF 20-35 KTS OUT OF THE W-NW. 24 SFC PRESS RISES TO BE 10-25 MB ACRS THE FA...WHICH CLIMO SUGGESTS WOULD ONLY CAUSE A FEW GUSTS AOA 25 M/S. IN GENERAL...WINDS ALOFT APPEAR TO BE A LIL WEAKER THAN THEY WERE PROGGED TO BE ATTM YESTERDAY. MESONET OBS SHOW MORNING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.

REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC. WRK ZONES AND FINAL ZFP ALREADY ISSUED.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY