Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", or "AIRCRAFT" received at FSL on 01/06/03


PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES...

AFDCHI APPEARS LAST OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN MID LVL TROF

MOVING SEWD THRU NERN IL/NWRN IN THIS ERY MRNG. REMNANTS OF ANYMORE SNOW TODAY WUD BE LAKE EFFECT AND MODELS BARELY DROP 850 TEMPS LOW ENUF TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHC OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS MRNG FOR LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES WITH LTL OR NO ACCUM.

LOTS OF LOW SC XTNDG ALL THE WAY THRU WI AND MN WHICH AT FIRST WUD APPEAR TO BE AN ALL DAY CLD EVENT. HOWEVER BREAKS ALREADY APPEARING IN SRN WI SWINGING INTO NRN IL WITH MORE LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN DVLPG BY AFTN AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO MS VLY AND GRTLKS RGN.

STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAKING FOR A WINDY MRNG BUT DIMINISHING AS RIDGE PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTN. SHUD BE A RATHER CLEAR NIGHT TNGT WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND 20. FEEL MORE AFFINITY TWD THE COLDER AVN/GFS TEMPS TDA AND TNGT WITH SNOW COVER. BELIEVE THERE SHUD BE ENUF GROUND SNOW REMAINING TONIGHT TO WARRANT THOSE COOLER TEMPS.

QUESTIONABLE IS WARM TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY WARM MARITIME AIR COMES DIVING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. WAA CLDNESS DROPPING DOWN ACRS LAKES RGN TUESDAY AND CLIPPING NRN IL/NWRN IN WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE. BUT WAA FROM THE WEST SHUD PRY TEMPS OUT OF THE 30S AND MELT REMAINING SNOW. LAST EVENT LIKE THIS HAD AVN MOS FCSTG 55 AND ETA 49 WHEN ACTUAL VALUES SHOT TO 62. DONT MIND MISSING ON THE WARM SIDE IN WINTER BUT WUD LIKE TO REASON THIS OUT ACCURATELY. AM STILL SCEPTICAL SO WILL LEAN TO A BLEND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY...THEN MID TO UPR 40S WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONGER WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THERMAL RIDGE...NOT TO MENTION LACK OF SNOW COVER. MAY EVEN APPROACH MID 50S BFR THIS IS OVER.

THESE STRONG WINDS VEER TO NW WED NGT AND THURS WITH PASSING COLD FNT AND 850 TEMPS PLUNGING FROM NEAR 10 ABV WED TO NEAR 10 BLO BY THURS AFTN. THIS CAA CONTINUES TO -16 FRI AFTN. APPEARS TO BE A DRY FROPA SO NO MENTION OF PCPN THRU REST OF WEEK. ALTHO WUD WONDER WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING SO QUICKLY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IF CAA WUD WRING OUT MSTR IN FORM OF FLURRIES ON THUR.

NOTICED THAT LATEST MRF NUMBERS HAVE JUST COME IN AND TEMPS HAVE ADJUSTED TO LOW 50S WED WITH HIGH TEMPS COOLER THURSDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTS IN THOSE DIRECTIONS.

.CHI...GALE THIS MRNG LAKE MICH

BRUMER