AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
AFDDDC 246 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2003
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
TOMORROW AND HOW MUCH THINGS COOL FOR THURSDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX HAS BROUGHT DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S SO FAR. LOOKING UPSTREAM, 850 MB TEMPERATURES A QUITE
TOASTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ALBERTA REPORTING A
WHOPPING 18 DEGREES C AT 12Z THIS MORNING.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING AMONG THE SHORT
TERM MODELS WERE VERY SLIGHT. ALL WERE SLIGHTLY OFF IN CATCHING THE
ORIENTATION OF A 150 KT JET OFF OF THE NORTHWEST COAST, WITH THE ETA
BEING CLOSEST TO REALITY. ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE RIDGE
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW, IT DEFINATELY WILL GET VERY WARM TOMORROW.
THE QUESTION IS HOW WARM. ACCORDING TO THE ETA, 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL MAX OUT AT 18 C TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE THE AVN AND NGM ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT DDC, THE ETA
HAS 74 F FOR A HIGH, WITH 71 FROM THE NGM AND 68 FROM THE AVN. WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND PLENTY OF MIXING, WE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING
CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES, SO I BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE
CWA. DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE RECORD HIGHS IN PLACES LIKE LBL AND
EHA, WHERE LAST YEAR IT GOT UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA COULD SEE RECORDS BROKEN.
AFTER ALL THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS ALL BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH. STRONG CAA SETS IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
WHICH SHOULD KNOCK US BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
DAYS 3-7...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE MARKED WITH STRONG PERSISTENT BLOCK
FEATURE CENTERED AROUND 130W, EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE POLAR
LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE 12Z
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST THE JET STREAK CROSSING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST THIS MORNING WAS UNDER INITIALIZED BY ALL GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS...WHERE ACARS PLOTS SUGGEST 170 KTS VERSUS INITIALIZED 145
KTS. THIS MIGHT SUGGEST MORE RAPID EVOLUTION TO OMEGA BLOCK TYPE
REGIME. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT JET OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ALONG
35N LATITUDE APPEARS TO BE PICKED UP WELL BY ALL GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS, DESPITE LACK OF ACTUAL DATA TO BACK THIS UP OTHER THAN
SATELLITE. THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MARKED WITH
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FEATURE THAT WOULD HAVE INFLUENCE ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS NEAR
33N/137W. IT APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY THAT THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS, OTHER THAN A
GLANCING BLOW. THE CURRENT GOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS
WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS PACKAGE.
THE OVERCAST FORECAST FOR FRI/SAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS COLD AIR
OOZES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC SYSTEM. WITH THE LACK OF ANY
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE, PCPN CHANCES LOOK NEXT TO
NIL.
AS THE OMEGA BLOCKING BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LARGE PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TEND TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE POLAR ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. SHORTER WAVELENGTH CIRCULATIONS
WITHIN THIS NORTHEAST PACIFIC VORTEX WOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
WESTERN CONUS, AS DEPICTED BY LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS AROUND HOUR 156
TO 180. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE GFS TAKES ONE OF THESE SHORTER
WAVELENGTH DISTURBANCES AND DIGS IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH
DECENT BAROCLINICITY ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS, A SCENARIO
DEPICTED BY THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING PCPN
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, SHORT WAVELENGTH PROGS BEYOND DAY 7 ARE SIMPLY
WHITE NOISE IN THE PLANETARY SCALE PATTERN, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
BREAKDOWN OF SUCH STRONG BLOCKING. WILL WORD THE 8 TO 10 DAY
OUTLOOK NEAR NORMAL FOR BOTH PCPN AND TEMPS WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.
DDC 31 72 30 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 29 71 29 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 73 31 45 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 29 71 31 45 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 28 71 28 41 / 0 0 0 0
P28 32 70 34 44 / 0 0 0 0
.DDC...NONE.
RITTERLING/UMSCHEID