EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
AFDSAN 215 PM PST TUE MAR 4 2003
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. FAIR WEATHER
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS. A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...BUT OCCASIONAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL GO BY TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLING.
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED TODAY...THOUGH MOST WERE
LIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM LINDBERGH SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
5000-5500 FEET RANGE...SO THE SNOW LEVEL RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE AROUND
4500 FEET. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW GOING BY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP TO 4000 FEET THIS EVENING. SO
FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED...AND GIVEN THAT THE VORT MAX WILL
TRACK WELL TO OUR SW/S AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL BAJA...WE WILL BE
UNLIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THIS FAR NORTH DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 1/4 INCH IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...AND EVEN THOSE AMOUNTS WILL BE SCATTERED. UP TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MTNS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SYSTEMS GOING BY
TO THE NORTH. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPS TO FOLLOW THAT
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED FOR AWHILE GIVEN THAT THE FLOW WILL VARY BETWEEN WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK OFFSHORE.
.SAN...NONE.
$$
MAXWELL