Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/06/03

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG JET STREAM OVER THE AREA. THIS JET STREAM COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY MOUNTAINS SNOWS AND WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION... .TONIGHT...THE INLAND NW CONTINUES TO SIT ON THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG 130KT WNW JET THIS EVENING. THE IMPLIED LIFT FROM THIS JET WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BEING GENERATED BY THE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE-700 MB WIND FIELDS. THE 00Z SPOKANE SOUNDING SHOWED NO READINGS BELOW 35 KTS THROUGH THIS LAYER OTHER THAN ON THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE. THE LATEST 00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING THROUGH THIS LAYER TONIGHT EITHER. AS IF THESE INGREDIENTS WERE NOT ENOUGH...WE WILL SEE A MARKED DECREASE IN THE POTENTIAL STABILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A NICE POOL OF COLD AIR WITH TEMPS BETWEEN -32C AND -35C JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE MODELS EXPECTING TO SLIDE OVER THE INLAND NW LATER TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF ACARS FLIGHTS BETWEEN 02Z AND 0330Z OVER WASHINGTON SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED SINCE THE 00Z OTX AND UIL SOUNDINGS WERE TAKEN. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE COOLING BELOW THE 850 MB LEVEL. BY EARLY MORNING THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/COOLING RESULTS IN LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR ZERO EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CASCADES TO THE CENTER OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A 12Z VALUE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS GOOD INSTABILITY...STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE WARNED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG. WE COULD LET THE ADVISORIES FOR WIND LAPSE...HOWEVER WE WOULD JUST NEED TO REISSUE FOR TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND WE WILL LET THEM CONTINUE AND JUST PLACE APPROPRIATE WORDING IN THE STATEMENTS. THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT SO WE WILL HAVE RAISE THE RANGES IN MOST OF THE WIND PRONE ZONES TONIGHT.

...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...

GEG 032/046/030/044/029/043 344566 COE 031/045/031/042/028/040 455677 PUW 032/046/032/047/030/047 344555 LWS 036/052/036/050/036/047 454455 CQV 031/043/031/042/024/037 665566 SPT 028/044/026/038/024/034 997777 WWP 027/041/026/036/024/035 ++8886 MWH 034/051/033/050/033/052 122443 EAT 034/049/032/047/031/049 123444 OMK 030/050/029/045/024/037 222577

.OTX...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 3000 FEET CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY FOR LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WAZ042...EAST SLOPE WA CASCADES. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN...WATERVILLE PLATEAU...WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PALOUSE...SPOKANE COEUR D'ALENE AREAS...MOSES LAKE AREA AND LOWER GARFIELD/ASOTIN COUNTIES...WENATCHEE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$



.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BRING BREEZY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS. THE WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...RAIN NOT ALL THAT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME AND OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW COVERING THE CENTRAL SOUND AREA RATHER WELL. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL SHIFTING SOUTH SO COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS WILL STILL HAVE DIMINISHED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MOUNTAIN SNOWS PICKING UP AND PUSHING AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES A FEW LOCATIONS. MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL NOT SETTLE IN UNTIL A LITTLE LATER TODAY SO WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE 2500 TO 3000 FEET ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND ACARS DATA AND PASS REPORTS. THIS IS AS FORECAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWNWARD LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT FCST IS DOING ALRIGHT AND AM NOT PLANNNG ON ANY UPDATES THIS AM.

UIL +98 SEA 987 OLM 988

.KSEW...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT ADMIRALTY INLET. .KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

CERNIGLIA $$



MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STILL CATCHING UP WITH THIS DENSE COLD AIR MASS. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE LOW CLOUDS AS OF NOW. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS STARTING TO BECOME BALANCED WITH THE RISING THETA SURFACES MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW GRADUAL UPGLIDE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH THETA SURFACES BEGINNING TO FALL MAINLY AT THE LOW LAYERS. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE CWFA. WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDING DATA IN SGF.

COX ---------------------------------------------------------------------

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PKG WILL BE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART AND TRYING TO PINPOINT THERMAL GRADIENT POSITION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TDY-TNGHT LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER SE CWA DUE TO LACK OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. MODELS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS ERODING DURING THE MORNING...HOWEVER THEY COULD HANG ON A BIT LONGER WHICH COULD REALLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR THAT AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MORNING TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE TEENS AND GUIDANCE NUMBERS COMING IN COOLER INDICATES THAT COLD AIR IS TRYING TO HANG ON. SNDING ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT OUR PREVIOUS FCST HIGHS WERE A RESULT OF MIXING TO 850MB. CURRENT ETA BUFFER SNDINGS SHOW MIXING DEPTH LOWER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS TDY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL FEEL WARM RELATIVE TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS WILL NEED TO DRAG OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN SOME.

FRI-SAT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER ON FRI AS MORNING INVERSION LEVEL WILL BE MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THUR MORNING...THUS ENABLING MIXING DEPTH TO TAP INTO WARM READINGS ALOFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO IT WILL BE A PURELY SFC HEATING EVENT DICTATING AFTERNOON HIGHS. WILL GO WITH 60S FOR ALL AREAS AND GO WITH NEAR 60 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRL CWA WHICH WILL BE IN-LINE WITH THERMAL TROUGH. THINGS LOOK TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SAT AS MORNING INVERSION COMES IN EVEN LOWER AND COMPRESS WARMING AHEAD OF FRNT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED: SUN-WED SUN/MON WILL BE A VERY TRICKY PERIOD AS MODELS ARE STILL UNDECIDED ON STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF CANADIAN AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. COOLER AIR STILL LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND CURRENT FCST REPRESENTS THIS NICELY. AIRMASS TRIES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY THUS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN BACK TO KS...HOWEVER THE BIG KEY TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF CANADIAN AIRMASS WHEN IT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. IF THE AIRMASS COMES IN COLDER THEN MONDAY RECOVERY EFFORTS WILL BE HAMPERED AS BNDY IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER IF THE OPPOSITE VERIFIES THIS WOULD CAUSE MUCH WARMER READINGS TO RETURN TO CWA. ADJUSTED TEMPS ON MON DUE TO CONSENSUS REASONING WITH A FEW SURROUNDING OFFICES. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH CWA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY AND WILL PRESS PERSISTENCE BUTTON ON TEMPS FOR TUES/WED. FCSTID = 15/JAKUB ICT 48 29 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 HUT 49 28 60 38 / 0 0 0 5 EWK 48 28 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 EQA 48 29 61 40 / 0 0 0 5 WLD 48 31 63 41 / 0 0 0 5 RSL 54 26 62 36 / 0 0 0 5 GBD 53 27 62 37 / 0 0 0 5 SLN 50 28 60 38 / 0 0 0 5 MPR 48 28 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 CFV 46 33 65 41 / 0 0 0 5 CNU 46 33 63 41 / 0 0 0 5 K88 46 31 62 41 / 0 0 0 5 .ICT...NONE.