Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/08/03

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

UPDATES FORTHCOMING...AGAIN.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST 2 COUNTIES. NOW HIGHLIGHTS ARE FOR EVERY COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY BAND SANK DOWN INTO YELLOWSTONE BUT AS YET HAS NOT REACHED THE BILLINGS AREA. HAD ALSO TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES OVER MANY LOCATIONS. ACARS SOUNDING OVER BILLINGS INDICATED THAT THE COLD AIR DOME HAD DEEPENED TO ABOUT 10000 FEET MSL AS OF 908 PM. THIS IS UP FROM 8057 FEET MSL AT 1240 PM. WITH A DEEPENING AIR DOME...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD SINK. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG THEY WILL KEEP UP THEIR INTENSITY. CHB

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MODELS CONTINUING TO BRING A WEAK REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN TEMPS TUESDAY MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH ADVERTISED WARMUP TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. GOING EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO WILL ONLY BE MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES THIS PACKAGE. MACZKO

SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 906/013 008/031 017/032 018/037 026/044 030/048 030/052 +4/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B LVM 905/016 010/034 017/036 017/041 026/047 030/051 030/055 +6/S 43/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B HDN 904/014 009/029 016/032 017/036 025/045 029/049 029/053 +4/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B MLS 908/009 904/018 015/027 017/029 021/042 025/046 025/050 +3/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B 4BQ 904/015 005/025 020/030 020/032 023/045 027/049 027/053 83/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B BHK 909/006 910/016 013/025 015/027 018/040 024/044 024/048 +3/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B SHR 902/015 009/030 019/033 020/037 024/045 028/049 028/053 84/S 33/J 33/J 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B

.BYZ... MT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MTZ034... MTZ040>041...MTZ056.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MTZ028>033...MTZ042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MTZ035...MTZ057.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MTZ036>037.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MTZ038>039...MTZ058.

WY...NONE.



.SYNOPSIS...COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTH PART THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW HAS SAGGED SOUTH A BIT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH HAS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. CENTRAL PUGET SOUND A BIT SHADOWED ONCE AGAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH.

WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CASCADES AND OLYMPICS THIS MORNING. RADAR AND AVALANCHE SITES INDICATE PRECIPITATION HAS PICKED UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL CASCADES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER LATER TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INLAND AND WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A SNOW ADVISORY AT THAT POINT.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR FOOTHILLS LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. ACARS SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 2000 TO 2500 FEET. OBSERVATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH 100 PERCENT RH. AIR ALOFT NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY COLDER AT THIS POINT SO MOST PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN AT LOWEST LEVELS. SNOW ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY UNCERTAIN FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. BLI WIND HAS GONE NORTHEAST AND BLI-YWL CONTINUES TO CREEP UP. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED AT YXX OR BLI YET AND SHOWERS SPOTTY AT BEST SO THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO GET ACCUMULATIONS. WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE AND CONTINUE BOTH ADVISORIES THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL COME ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY. LATEST GFS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY WORDING IN ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND PUGET SOUND SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD PRESSURE RISES AS LOW MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AND ABOVE LOWER PASSES.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER EARLY MONDAY AND IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH INTO TUESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM ADVERTIZED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

UIL 768 SEA 337 OLM 958

.KSEW...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES THIS MORNING. SNOW ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SNOW ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY THIS MORNING. .KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

$$



QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHLAND NEXT 48 HOURS. A MORE TYPICAL MARINE LAYER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LA BASIN..WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS COASTAL SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

EDDY POTENTIAL SEEMS FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... SO WOULD EXPECT STRATUS TO LUNGE NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. CURRENT ACARS DATA SUGGEST MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1400 FEET. WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS... COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED STRATUS COVERAGE SOMEWHAT IN THE ZONES.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL WARM INLAND AREAS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. WARMUP NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MODERATED BY MARINE LAYER PRESENCE. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MRF/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SHOWING FARILY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CENTERED WELL OFF THE CALFORNIA COAST AS OF WEDNESDAY. MRF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG ZONAL FLOW FUELED BY A POWERFUL JET. INITIALLY...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARDS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BUT COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LAX 0000. GOMBERG

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).