AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
AFDDDC 325 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
DAYS 1-2...
FALLING SFC PRESSURES WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROF HAVE YIELDED
SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20-30KTS ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DOESN'T LOOK AS THOUGH WE WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. MOST OF THE
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD BEEN PUSHED WELL INTO CENTRAL TX BY THIS
MORNING, BUT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER AND MID 50 DEWPOINTS MOVING BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS, MOVING NORTHWARD. THINK THE MAIN CHALLENGE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LOW TEMPS (BASED ON RETURNING DEWPOINTS)
HIGH TEMPS(BASED ON LONGEVITY OF STRATUS).
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS BRING LEE TROF EAST BEFORE REDEVELOPING BACK
NEAR THE COLORADO. DO NOT THINK TROF WILL MOVE EAST AS FAR AS
MODELS PREDICT WITHOUT AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SO WILL NOT BRING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS MUCH AS MODELS. WILL KEEP SPEEDS
MAINLY 15-20 MPH FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND LIGHTER WEST...NEAR
TROF. DID NOT TWEAK THE LOWS TOO MUCH AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.
SHOULD HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO AREA ON SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS SHOW WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST TO TODAY'S HIGHS, BUT WILL KNOCK A
FEW OFF DUE TO A BIT LESS SUN. DELTA T'S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON RISE
TO AROUND 21. MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY INDICATE 20-30 POP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DID NOT ADJUST. THINK WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
BRING UP GULF MOISTURE. ADDED SOME FOG TO GRIDS FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. RAISED LOWS A BIT, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. FOR HIGHS
ON SUNDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS SATURDAY. SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO CURTAIL SOME OF THE HEATING AS WELL
AS STRATUS/FOG LINGERING TO SLOW DOWN THE HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH DRYLINE EAST OF DDC TOWARD EASTERN EDGE WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT 30 POP FOR
EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DAYS 3-7...
** MAJOR STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SEVERE WEATHER, RAIN, HIGH WINDS, AND POSSIBLY SNOW **
THE 12Z SUITE OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ON A GENERAL
CONSENSUS...EXCEPT, ONCE AGAIN, THE GFS. AS PER ACARS DATA AT 12Z,
190-200KT JET STREAK WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 35-37N LATITUDE, WITH S/W
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
42N/135W. UPSTREAM OF THIS AND JUST POLEWARD OF THE 200KT JET, WV
LOOP SHOWS PRONOUNCED, NARROW BAND OF DRYING, INDICATING FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE CHANNEL OF HIGH VORTICITY AIR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH TIME. ANOTHER
LEAD S/W TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO. THE GFS
THEN INDUCES SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS LEAD S/W TROF AND
MOVES IT ON EASTWARD MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THEN ALL OTHER MODELS. A
MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION WOULD BE THE SFC/H85/H7 CYCLOGENESIS
SCENARIO DEPICTED BY 84H ETA, UKMET, NOGAPS, AND CANADIAN MODEL.
THE ETA MODEL SHOWS VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY IN THE H5-H7 LAYER AS
LEESIDE LOW BEGINS TO UNDER CYCLOGENESIS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THREAT FOR SVRWX EXISTS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IMPRESSIVE
Q-G ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHWEST VORT MAX SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. INITIALLY, VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL, BUT WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SFC LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH, BUT DEEPEN RAPIDLY ON MONDAY.
THE PROGGED PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MAY KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN
DRY SLOT, BUT AT THIS TIME, THIS IS TOO EARLY TO CALL FOR SURE.
WITH INCREASED SHEAR PROFILES, CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN CWA MONDAY. ETA CAPES ARE PROGGED TO
BE RATHER LOW, BUT THIS IS LIKELY A FUNCTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
SIGNIFICANT H5/H7 LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF CWA WOULD PUT A
MAJORITY OF CWA IN GOOD PCPN AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY, IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN FILTER DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT SIGNIFICANT AGEOSTROPHIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT COLD AIR SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMIC PROCESSES. PUSHED THE RAIN/SNOW
BACK TO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN CWA.
SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER IS THE AMOUNT OF WIND BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. COULD SEE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BREACHED TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT IF SFC LOW BOMBS OUT OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS, AND IF
SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, IT COULD BECOME RATHER INTERESTING.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.
DDC 49 78 49 78 / 0 20 20 30
GCK 48 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 48 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 50 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 47 78 46 75 / 0 20 0 30
P28 52 78 54 78 / 0 30 30 30
.DDC...NONE.
FCSTID = 15/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
AFDSDF 315 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003
CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO DECREASE THIS MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST
OF FORECAST AREA HAVE DECREASED EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING AND MAY REACH THE MID
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE RETURN/REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR BUT GFS IS FASTER WITH SPEED OF LOW MOVING
OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT PER NCEP DISCUSSION.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOST OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH
REMAINING CLOUDS ALONG TENNESSEE BORDER EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND MODEL RH AT 925 MB INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT
1730Z. WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP AND WITH CIRRUS STILL OVER
THE AREA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM GULF STATES WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER.
IN THE LONGER TERM...THE MAIN QUESTION IS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS TRY TO BRING IN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS THE LOW
MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS IN SMALL POPS BUT
WITH RAIN AMOUNTS BEING SO SMALL WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. THIS ALSO
MATCHES UP BETTER WITH COUNTIES TO THE EAST.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SOME SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAY PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MILD THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS
CLOUD COVER THAN SHOWN ON GFS TIME SECTIONS BUT GFS TENDS TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH ON RH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY.
THEN THE NEXT MAJOR STORM COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE BRISK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUMPING UP A LOT OF MOISTURE.
GFS SHOWS AIR BECOMING UNSTABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS NEXT
WEEK FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES (NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMALS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
.SDF...NONE.
$$
SCHOLZ