SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 840 AM PST SAT MAR 29 2003
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND VENTURA COUNTY COAST AFTER A
BIT OF A LULL OVERNIGHT. ADVISORIES STILL LOOK VALID IN THOSE AREAS
EVEN THOUGH WINDS IN SOME PLACES MAY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SUCH IS THE
NATURE OF SANTA ANA WINDS. IT CAN BE GUSTING TO 50 MPH IN ONE PLACE
AND 5 MILES AWAY BE DEAD CALM. WINDS HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WARNINGS THERE WILL CONTINUE AS WELL UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AT LEAST KEEPING ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER SUPPORT IS STARTING TO WEAKEN SO WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG OR WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. AS EXPECTED, IT'S BEEN A VERY
TRICKY FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
BATTLES THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EFFECTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN LA/VTU COUNTIES HAVE BEEN BY FAR THE
WARMEST PLACES TO BE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, AND I EXPECT THE SAME
TODAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WARMING AT LOW LVLS
YET, HOWEVER MOUNTAINS ARE DEFINITELY WARMER TODAY, INDICATING COLD
AIR IS MOVING OUT. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR WILL SURFACE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASE IN VALLEY TEMPS, BUT PROBABLY
NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE SELECTED CITIES FORECAST, MAINLY JUST FOR THE
VALLEYS AND INLAND ZONE 41. THE RANGES IN THE ZONES STILL LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THERE.
A SIMILAR DILEMMA EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM,
BUT I'M NOT SURE THEY'LL BE QUITE AS WARM AS MOS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING.
MODELS SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING, BUT NOT 10
DEGREES WORTH. 90S MAY BE A STRETCH, WITH 80S MORE LIKELY.
COOLING STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY, WORKING IT'S WAY INLAND BY
TUESDAY WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS WEEKEND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND BY FRIDAY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS AS MUCH AS 30 TO 35
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WINTER ISN'T DONE YET.
LAX 000. WOFFORD
.LOX...HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE
AFDCHI VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT OF -31 AT 500 MAKING FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND A LOT OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE SO SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WEAK 700 TROF MOVES THRU. COULD BE SOME BELOW 3SM
BUT LEFT AT 3SM FOR NOW. SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SS WITH SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT.
AT GYY WINDS 950-850 ALL LINE UP BY 12Z STRAIGHT DOWN LAKE. HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE FORECAST AND INVERSION NO HIGHER THAN 030. SO EXPECT SOME
LAKE SNOW SHWOWERS TOWARD 12Z BUT NO BIG DEAL ON CIG OR VIS. THESE
MOVE E DURING MORNING.
AF