Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 04/05/03

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING STAGE RIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM...BUT STILL PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS PTNS OF ERN CO WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE EAST. MESOETA HIT THE DETAILS FAIRLY WELL THRU 1ST 12 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DECREASING MSTR EARLY THIS MORNING AS SFC WNDS SHIFT MORE S-SE. MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE FOG AS SKIES TRY TO CLEAR THRU MID MORNING. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THRU MIDDAY SO SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME UNTIL THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SKIRTS OUR WAY. 100KT JET DIVING INTO CENTRAL CA THIS AM...AND THIS JET MAX EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS SRN PTNS OF CO LATER TDY AND TNT. WITH JET PROXIMITY...UPWARD FORCING INCREASES TNT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9C/KM. COUPLED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING TNT...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD ACROSS ERN CO. EVEN AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE INSTABILITY. HI TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD PLUNGE WITH 700MB TEMPS NOW AROUND -10C(ACCORDING TO 10Z ACARS SOUNDING)...BUT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT BUMP UP THIS AFTN TO AROUND -6C WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. TEMPS NOT LIKELY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 40S. MAIN CHANGES TO MORNING PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD ISOLD POPS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES... MID LVL MSTR DOWN TO 650 MB...AND APPROACH OF UPPR JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH. ENTREKIN LONG TERM DISCUSSION...CWA WILL BE UNDER DECENT FORCING ALOFT ACTING ON HIGH LAPSE RATES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID THE ASCENT. THE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND SOME HELICITIES UP TO AROUND 200 AS WELL. THE MESOETA EVEN FORMS A DENVER CYCLONE SO THINGS MAY GET HOPPING FOR A WHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THIS EVENT DUE TO THE LIKELY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. MOREOVER THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT IN THE MOUNTAINS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. IN ALL...MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD BUT WILL HOLD OFF HOISTING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LATEST MRF HOLDS NO REAL SURPRISES FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE 04/00Z RUN IS A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH ANOTHER WAVE SCHEDULED TO AFFECT THE CWA ON MONDAY AND WILL MAKE SOME FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. AFTER MONDAY THINGS LOOK HIGH AND DRY. ET

.DEN...NONE.



--SYNOPSIS-- WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WRN USA. AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND GOES DERIVED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ANOTHER JET IN EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH E ACROSS THE ERN USA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A VORT MAX OVER NERN MEXICO AT 0530Z WAS PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS CLOUDINESS IS APPROACHING OUR CWFA. SURFACE DATA SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE FL PENINSULA. MOIST RETURN HAS BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES (F) OVER OUR FL ZONES. MSAS OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE A LOCAL THETA-E GRADIENT MAXIMUM EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE SW FL PENINSULA TO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE. LOCAL 03/00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED WARMING...AND DEPTH OF MOIST RETURN SO FAR IS GENERALLY LIMITED BELOW 850 MB. --FORECAST-- TODAY AND FRIDAY...MENTIONED VORT MAX OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CWFA. GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ETA...PROG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ADVANCE OF THIS VORT. CONSEQUENTLY...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY COMMENCE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING OVER OUR WRN COASTAL WATERS AND ZONES. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR WRN ZONES AND WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT. HAVE OTHERWISE NOT CHANGED THE POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN PLACE FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

MARINE...WINDS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE WATERS. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WHEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS N.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES WERE MADE. LATEST GFS HINTS AT A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CWFA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS. WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO THE DAY SHIFT.

$$

TJT