AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
AFDSGF 308 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003
...CONVECTIVE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS OUT AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. 19Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DRYLINE FROM JUST EAST OF HAYS KS ARCING
SOUTHEAST TO HALFWAY BETWEEN WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE SOUTHWARD TO
AROUND LAWTON OK. DRYLINE CONTINUES TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
1836Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM TULSA CONTINUES TO SHOW MODESTLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...EVEN AFTER MODIFYING THAT SOUNDING FOR
19Z SURFACE CONDITIONS A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS WITH CINH NEAR 100
J/KG. FURTHER NORTH THE CAP APPEARS TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH 18Z
GOES SOUNDING FROM ICT INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE.
WHILE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS NOT
SPECTACULAR...MASS CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING CAP DURING THE NEXT
COUPOLE OF HOURS. WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE AREA REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...QUICKLY EVOLVING IN SUPERCELLS WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES COULD CERTAINLY GET BRUSHED BY ONE OF THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 23Z. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
WESTERN CWA...CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE
BACKED MORE...AND WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER. THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
IZZI