Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 05/04/03

TNGT: LAPS SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAP THAT HAD STRENGTHENED BETWEEN 6 & 8 PM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. NO COINCIDENCE THAT PER PROFILERS LOW- LEVEL JET PRESSING HARDER ON THROTTLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK AS EVI- DENCED BY LAMONT OK PROFILER NEARLY DOUBLING S/SE 925-850MB FLOW FM ~35-60KTS BETWEEN 02Z & 03Z, SETTING UP WELL-DEFINED W-E ORIENTED 925-850MB CONVERGENT AXIS OVER SC & SE KS. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ASSIGNED ~30-40% POPS ACRS SC KS WHERE ELEVATED SCT TSRA STILL POSS- IBLE. MUCH HIGHER POPS ASSIGNED TO ALONG THE NE CORRIDOR WHERE PER CORFIDI VECTORS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WRN & CNTRL NEBRASKA SHOULD PROPAGATE SE ACRS THESE AREAS AS THEY APPROACH NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET. AM NOT ABANDONING THE CONVECTIVE SHIP JUST YET. ES

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...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS SVR WX POTENTIAL THRU SUN...

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY BREAKING OUT ON LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM CTRL KS TO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION GAINS A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT.

WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DVLP ON DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD...CONCERN WE MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FROM CTRL KS TO CTRL OK LATE THIS EVNG AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE IN THIS AREA...WHICH HOPEFULLY THE PLANNED 20Z OUN SOUNDING WILL ANSWER. IF EDGE OF CAP IS PRESENT HERE (HINTED BY 19Z TULSA ACARS-BASED SOUNDING)...MAY SEE STG/SVR CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. PRESENT FORECAST HAS LIKELY POPS...AND HATE TO LOWER DUE TO PRESENT UNCERTAINTY (PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE). AT THE MOMENT...PLAN IS FOR 60 POPS EASTERN ZONES...50 CTRL ZNS...40 NEAR BORDER W/ DDC FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE AREN'T GETTING MUCH HEATING (ESP WRN/CTRL KS)...EXPECT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THIS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR MEANS I'LL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS TNGT. SHOULD SEE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

FOR TMRW...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE DRYLINE WILL LIE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATION OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE DRYLINE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL KS DURING THE MORNING...AND LIE JUST EAST OF I-135 BY MIDDAY. WILL CONFINE MENTION FOR AFTN T-STORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST KS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE (DRY SLOT), LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN 80-85 RANGE. WILL STRESS WINDY CONDITIONS IN FORECAST GIVEN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FAIR WX SUN NGT THRU TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TUE NGT/WED. FOR THURS THRU WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CHANGED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION...SUGGESTING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRI AND SAT. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS FRI NGT/SAT...DON'T WANT TO GO OVERBOARD GIVEN THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD CHANGE AGAIN. BUMPED UP TEMP FORECAST FOR NEXT THURS-SAT BASED ON LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS, WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THAN GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE.

WOLF

.ICT... KS...NONE.



...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS SVR WX POTENTIAL THRU SUN...

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY BREAKING OUT ON LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM CTRL KS TO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION GAINS A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT.

WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DVLP ON DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD...CONCERN WE MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FROM CTRL KS TO CTRL OK LATE THIS EVNG AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE IN THIS AREA...WHICH HOPEFULLY THE PLANNED 20Z OUN SOUNDING WILL ANSWER. IF EDGE OF CAP IS PRESENT HERE (HINTED BY 19Z TULSA ACARS-BASED SOUNDING)...MAY SEE STG/SVR CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. PRESENT FORECAST HAS LIKELY POPS...AND HATE TO LOWER DUE TO PRESENT UNCERTAINTY (PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE). AT THE MOMENT...PLAN IS FOR 60 POPS EASTERN ZONES...50 CTRL ZNS...40 NEAR BORDER W/ DDC FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE AREN'T GETTING MUCH HEATING (ESP WRN/CTRL KS)...EXPECT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THIS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR MEANS I'LL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS TNGT. SHOULD SEE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

FOR TMRW...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE DRYLINE WILL LIE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATION OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANTICIPATE DRYLINE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL KS DURING THE MORNING...AND LIE JUST EAST OF I-135 BY MIDDAY. WILL CONFINE MENTION FOR AFTN T-STORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST KS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE (DRY SLOT), LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN 80-85 RANGE. WILL STRESS WINDY CONDITIONS IN FORECAST GIVEN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FAIR WX SUN NGT THRU TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TUE NGT/WED. FOR THURS THRU WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CHANGED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION...SUGGESTING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRI AND SAT. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS FRI NGT/SAT...DON'T WANT TO GO OVERBOARD GIVEN THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD CHANGE AGAIN. BUMPED UP TEMP FORECAST FOR NEXT THURS-SAT BASED ON LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS, WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THAN GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE.

WOLF

.ICT... KS...NONE.



DAY ONE... AT 06Z DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM EAST OF AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK TO WEST OF WINK. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WAS LOCATED OVER UTAH WITH AIRCRAFT REPORTS SHOWING A STRONG 130KT JET AT 300 MB MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A POTENT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCAL WIND STUDY SHOWS WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WITH HIGH WINDS AND RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL ALSO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

FCSTID = 08

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONLY WEAK RIPPLES MOVE IN OFF THE PACIFIC UNTIL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE ON WESTWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH ONLY GRADUAL BACKING OF UPPER FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. WITH A BIT OF CAUTION...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY ERRED BY SHUNTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SUSPECT THAT WILL REMAIN A MODEL PROBLEM FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. A STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY...AND THEN FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SUGGESTING DRY LINE WILL BECOME A BIGGER FACTOR ONCE AGAIN BY THEN. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TRENDED MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DOMINATES. WARMER AGAIN TUESDAY...THEN TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY PER THE ETA MODEL. DRY LINE IN AND OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MAKES TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE A BIT LESS...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER READINGS. MCQUEEN/05

FRIONA 90 47 81 46 / 00 00 00 00 TULIA 90 48 82 48 / 00 00 00 00 LUBBOCK 92 50 84 50 / 00 00 00 00 BROWNFIELD 95 51 84 52 / 00 00 00 00 CHILDRESS 94 54 86 53 / 00 00 00 00 ASPERMONT 95 56 87 56 / 00 00 00 00

.LUB...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY TXZ021>044. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

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