AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
AFDGYX 835 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003
UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH THE REGION AND PROBABLY AUGMENTED
BY SURFACE HEATING. THE 12Z GFS/AVN RESOLVED THIS FEATURE BETTER
THAN THE ETA. AVN SHOWS UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS DRYING UP SO DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE ANY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOKS GOOD. CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES THINNING OUT AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO SHOULD SEE SOME
RELATIVELY LARGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RANGES BASED ON ELEVATION WITH
VALLEY AREAS COOLER THAN HILLTOPS. WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECASTS TO
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INDICATE A WIDER RANGE OF TEMPERATURES.
PWMWRKZFP AVAILABLE FOR COORDINATION.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NO FLAGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DISC...AFT AN EARLY MRNG FROST MST LOCATIONS...VRY LRG DIURNAL RNG
OCCURRED W/ TEMPS AOB 60F ACRS MUCH OF THE FA (INCL THE CSTLN) THS
AFTN. BIG RNG XPCTD ACRS THE SRN INTERIOR TNGT. A FEW CLDS WL DVLP
IN THE MTNS AFT SUNSET AS WEAK COLD FNT SPILLS SWD. MUCH COOLER AIR
TO RMN LOCKED UP IN CAN WELL BEHIND FNT.
BRIGHT SNSHN TMRW MRNG FOR ARVL OF HURCN HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN PWM. CI
CANOPY WELL AHEAD OF NXT SYS. XPCT CLDS TO GRADUALLY INCR DURG THE
AFTN. ONSHORE FLO TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALG THE CSTLN.
CLDS THICKEN TMRW EVE. LOW LVL WAA BEGINS W/ SUM UPR LVL SUPPORT BY
LT MON NGT. ALTHO LOW/MID LVLS DRY AT THE ONSET...WL INCLUDE SML
CHC -SHRA AFT MDNGT.
CATAG POPS TUE W/ STG WAA PTTN ALFT. HWVR...AT THE SFC...VRY COOL
ERLY FLO TO DVLP. XPCT UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS ALG THE CST W/ NOT MUCH
WARMED CONDS INLAND. MIXED PCPN PSBL IN THE MTNS EARLY IN THE
DAY?
LINGERING -SHRA TO CONT TUE NGT.
CLDS MAY BREAK WED. VRY WARM TEMPS PSBL AWAY FM THE CST. THS AGAIN
IS DEPENDENT ON AMNT OF SNSHN.
XTND...COOL/SHOWERY PTTN TO CONT.
MARINE...QUIET.
FCSTID = 7
.GYX...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
WHEELER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
AFDGYX 229 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003
DISC...AFT AN EARLY MRNG FROST MST LOCATIONS...VRY LRG DIURNAL RNG
OCCURRED W/ TEMPS AOB 60F ACRS MUCH OF THE FA (INCL THE CSTLN) THS
AFTN. BIG RNG XPCTD ACRS THE SRN INTERIOR TNGT. A FEW CLDS WL DVLP
IN THE MTNS AFT SUNSET AS WEAK COLD FNT SPILLS SWD. MUCH COOLER AIR
TO RMN LOCKED UP IN CAN WELL BEHIND FNT.
BRIGHT SNSHN TMRW MRNG FOR ARVL OF HURCN HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN PWM. CI
CANOPY WELL AHEAD OF NXT SYS. XPCT CLDS TO GRADUALLY INCR DURG THE
AFTN. ONSHORE FLO TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALG THE CSTLN.
CLDS THICKEN TMRW EVE. LOW LVL WAA BEGINS W/ SUM UPR LVL SUPPORT BY
LT MON NGT. ALTHO LOW/MID LVLS DRY AT THE ONSET...WL INCLUDE SML
CHC -SHRA AFT MDNGT.
CATAG POPS TUE W/ STG WAA PTTN ALFT. HWVR...AT THE SFC...VRY COOL
ERLY FLO TO DVLP. XPCT UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS ALG THE CST W/ NOT MUCH
WARMED CONDS INLAND. MIXED PCPN PSBL IN THE MTNS EARLY IN THE
DAY?
LINGERING -SHRA TO CONT TUE NGT.
CLDS MAY BREAK WED. VRY WARM TEMPS PSBL AWAY FM THE CST. THS AGAIN
IS DEPENDENT ON AMNT OF SNSHN.
XTND...COOL/SHOWERY PTTN TO CONT.
MARINE...QUIET.
FCSTID = 13
.GYX...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
JC
SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
AFDLBB 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003
THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING ACROSS WEST
TX. THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS SHOULD EXIST THE CWFA WITH IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS. EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE ON THE CAP
ROCK. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL APPROACH 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. CDS HAS BEEN REPORTING 2 TO 3 MILES IN BLOWING DUST...SO I
INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. I HAVE
LOWERED TODAY HIGHS SLIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES
DUE TO CAA AT 700MB.
.............. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................
DAY ONE...
AT 06Z DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM EAST OF AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK TO WEST
OF WINK. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WAS LOCATED OVER
UTAH WITH AIRCRAFT REPORTS SHOWING A STRONG 130KT JET AT 300 MB
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A POTENT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AROUND NOON TODAY.
DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DEEPEN SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCAL WIND STUDY SHOWS WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
THUS CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WITH HIGH WINDS AND RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL ALSO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
FCSTID = 08
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. ONLY WEAK RIPPLES MOVE IN OFF THE PACIFIC UNTIL A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. BOTH ETA AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE ON WESTWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH
ONLY GRADUAL BACKING OF UPPER FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. WITH A
BIT OF CAUTION...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
ERRED BY SHUNTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND SUSPECT THAT WILL REMAIN A MODEL PROBLEM FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. A STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY...AND THEN
FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SUGGESTING
DRY LINE WILL BECOME A BIGGER FACTOR ONCE AGAIN BY THEN. FOR NOW
HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TRENDED MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING PACIFIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DOMINATES. WARMER AGAIN TUESDAY...THEN TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY PER THE ETA MODEL. DRY LINE IN
AND OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MAKES TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE A
BIT LESS...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER READINGS. MCQUEEN/05
FRIONA 90 47 81 46 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA 90 48 82 48 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK 92 50 84 50 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD 95 51 84 52 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS 94 54 86 53 / 00 00 00 00
ASPERMONT 95 56 87 56 / 00 00 00 00
.LUB...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
$$