Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/05/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHOU 930 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

.DISCUSSION... BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ARE OUR ONLY TWO COUNTIES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOME TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

42/46/47 $$

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (838 PM CST)... CAP APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NEEDED TO BREAK THIS CAP...AND THE CLOSEST WE HAVE TO THE LOWER 70S RIGHT NOW IS AROUND THE BUOY 42019 (60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT) WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS 72 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ERODE THE CAP REMAINING TO OUR WEST UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT WEAK DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH...AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100 KNOT 200 MB JET...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA) AND CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO COOL ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS...IT IS WISE TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR ALL ZONES.

.MARINE... MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS TIDE LEVELS WERE SHOWING SIGNS OF APPROACHING OUR LOCAL CRITICAL LEVEL OF 4 FEET. TIDE LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE BUT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 3 FEET. WITH THE STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH THE 4 FOOT LEVEL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

.RIVERS... THE RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK (ESFHOU) WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. IF EXPECTED RAINS DO MATERIALIZE...WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

42/46/47 &&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 63 41 50 30 / 100 50 00 10 00 HOUSTON (IAH) 59 66 46 54 33 / 100 70 05 10 00 GALVESTON (GLS) 62 65 55 57 40 / 100 70 05 10 00 &&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX TONIGHT. RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SETX. SCA ALL WATERS. && $$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHOU 838 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

.DISCUSSION... CAP APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NEEDED TO BREAK THIS CAP...AND THE CLOSEST WE HAVE TO THE LOWER 70S RIGHT NOW IS AROUND THE BUOY 42019 (60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT) WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS 72 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ERODE THE CAP REMAINING TO OUR WEST UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT WEAK DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH...AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100 KNOT 200 MB JET...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA) AND CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO COOL ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS...IT IS WISE TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR ALL ZONES.

.MARINE... MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS TIDE LEVELS WERE SHOWING SIGNS OF APPROACHING OUR LOCAL CRITICAL LEVEL OF 4 FEET. TIDE LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE BUT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 3 FEET. WITH THE STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH THE 4 FOOT LEVEL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

.RIVERS... THE RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK (ESFHOU) WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. IF EXPECTED RAINS DO MATERIALIZE...WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

42/46/47 &&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 63 41 50 30 / 100 50 00 10 00 HOUSTON (IAH) 59 66 46 54 33 / 100 70 05 10 00 GALVESTON (GLS) 62 65 55 57 40 / 100 70 05 10 00 &&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX TONIGHT. RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SETX. SCA ALL WATERS. && $$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHOU 1158 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

.DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AGAIN AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (NPWHOU) FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE IN NUMEROUS SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM.

42/46/47 &&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (945 PM)... BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ARE OUR ONLY TWO COUNTIES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SOME TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

42/46/47 &&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (838 PM CST)... CAP APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NEEDED TO BREAK THIS CAP...AND THE CLOSEST WE HAVE TO THE LOWER 70S RIGHT NOW IS AROUND THE BUOY 42019 (60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT) WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS 72 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ERODE THE CAP REMAINING TO OUR WEST UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT WEAK DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH...AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100 KNOT 200 MB JET...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA) AND CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO COOL ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS...IT IS WISE TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR ALL ZONES.

.MARINE... MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS TIDE LEVELS WERE SHOWING SIGNS OF APPROACHING OUR LOCAL CRITICAL LEVEL OF 4 FEET. TIDE LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE BUT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 3 FEET. WITH THE STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH THE 4 FOOT LEVEL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

.RIVERS... THE RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK (ESFHOU) WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. IF EXPECTED RAINS DO MATERIALIZE...WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

42/46/47 &&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 63 41 50 30 / 100 50 00 10 00 HOUSTON (IAH) 59 66 46 54 33 / 100 70 05 10 00 GALVESTON (GLS) 62 65 55 57 40 / 100 70 05 10 00 &&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX TONIGHT. RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SETX. SCA ALL WATERS. && $$