Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/06/04

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

SURFACE NEPHANALYSIS AT 13 UTC AND 17 UTC SHOW HOW FAST THE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS MOVING NORTH. USING THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IR SATELLITE LOOPS AND WSR88D RADAR WILL FORECAST MVFR CEILING AND SNOW AROUND 21 UTC AND IFR CEILING AROUND 22 UTC TO ORD AND DPA. WILL FORECAST AN HOUR LATER FOR RFD. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD SHOWS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER. AROUND 09 UTC THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE ETA MODEL APPROACHES FREEZING AROUND 5200 FT. WILL KEEP THE TAFS WITH SNOW OVER NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN MIX WITH SNOW MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE TAFS AREA. THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. THE ETA MODEL MOVES THE MAXIMUM NEGATIVE OMEGA NORTH OF THE TAFS BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC. SO EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH. WHW

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.PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZFP...

MORNING UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NE CO. VAPOR PICS ALL MORNING SHOW JUST SLOW E DRIFT. THIS WILL ALLOW ENTIRE SYSTEM TO DRIFT TO W ONCE AGAIN. THIS MEANS MAIN SHOT OF PRECIP THIS EVE BASICALLY OVER 06-08Z AS DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. DRIFT W ALSO ALLOWS FOR MORE MIX OR CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW OVER THE SE 1/3 OF AREA. ALL THIS MEANS NO HEAVY SNOW, JUST ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MIDDAY SATL AND RADAR SHOW BIG PUSH OF MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SE AS EXPECTED. ALSO GOOD TS ALONG GULF AREAS SO WE DEFINITELY ONLY GETTING A PIECE OF THE GULF MOISTURE. SYTEM HAS BEEN REAL SLOW TO GET GOING SO FAR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, INSPITE OF 30KT 850 FLOW FROM THE SE AND 30KT LIFT SHOWN ON 295K SURFACE. SO WILL CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT. ADVISORIES TO BE KEPT DUE TO THE SN,IP,FZRA, FZDZ EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

ALL MODLES SHOW VERY COMPLEX VORT PATTERN TO MOVE THRU NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ITEM IS THE STRONG VORT LOBE WHICH PUSHES THE MAIN MOISTURE E OF AREA 06Z-08Z. 700 + 850 LOWS MOVES TO NW OF AREA OVERNIGHT SO NO DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW TO CONTEND WITH.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VERY INTERESTING. AFTER MAIN PUSH OFF E BY 06Z, REST OF NIGHT THRU MIDDAY SHOWS A VERY SUPERCOOLED SOUNDING WITH NO HIGH RH ABOVE -8C. THIS LEADS TO POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TIL HIGHER RH COLUMN COMES IN LATER IN DAY TO AGAIN IN FORM OF STRETCHED VORT LOBE FROM THE CO UPPER LOW TO HAVE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MAIN LOBE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING TOMORROW NIGHT SO LO CHANCE STUFF TOMORROW AND HIGHER CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW CHANCE AGAIN SATURDAY EXPECT NW IN WHERE HIGHER POPS. ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW CHANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS STRONG VORT LOBE WHICH COMES DOWN DURING SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHUNK COLD AIR WITH IT. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT AS MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE LAKE SNOW FOR NW IN SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS THO ONLY ABOUT -14 SO NOT SUPER DELTA TO WORK WITH.

BAGGY IDEA THAT NGM HAD TO SFC LOW PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW THE CONSENSUS. SOMETIMES THE OLD MODEL STILL COMES UP WITH THE BEST SOLUTION. OVERALL SURFACE WINDS SHOW NICE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU. FOR A CHANGE THO THIS N FLOW DOES NOT HAVE THE DEEP CANADIAN CONNECTION SO WARMING ALREADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AF

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.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 4 AM FRI. IN...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 4 AM FRI. LK MI...NONE.

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.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

SURFACE NEPHANALYSIS AT 13 UTC AND 17 UTC SHOW HOW FAST THE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS MOVING NORTH. USING THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IR SATELLITE LOOPS AND WSR88D RADAR WILL FORECAST MVFR CEILING AND SNOW AROUND 21 UTC AND IFR CEILING AROUND 22 UTC TO ORD AND DPA. WILL FORECAST AN HOUR LATER FOR RFD. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD SHOWS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER. AROUND 09 UTC THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE ETA MODEL APPROACHES FREEZING AROUND 5200 FT. WILL KEEP THE TAFS WITH SNOW OVER NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN MIX WITH SNOW MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE TAFS AREA. THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. THE ETA MODEL MOVES THE MAXIMUM NEGATIVE OMEGA NORTH OF THE TAFS BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC. SO EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH. WHW

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.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZFP...

NEXT WINTER STORM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SFC LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS SHIFTS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NORTH AND WEST OF CWA. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA WHERE 5 TO 7 INCHES LOOKS GOOD...WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FROM CHICAGO BACK TO LA SALLE AND 2 TO 4 ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA...WHERE MIX EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS...THUS WINTER WX ADVISORY REST OF AREA. ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT PRECIP MAY MIX THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AS DRY SLOT PUSHES THROUGH. THINK SFC TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FA WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING BUT WARM AIR CLOSE ENOUGH THE PRECIP MAY END UP BEING JUST DRIZZLE. MAIN SHOT OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THAT ROADS MAY STILL BE SLUSHY AND SLICK TO KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING THRU 9 AM FRI. EASTERLY WINDS KICK UP TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SO ONCE SNOW STARTS TO ACCUMULATE...LIKELY TO BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. AS WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL CLIPPER BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

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.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING WINNEBAGO...BOONE...MCHENRY...OGLE... LEE...DEKALB FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM FRI. WINTER WX ADVISORY ALL OTHER IL COUNTIES THRU 9 AM FRI. IN...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 9 AM FRI. LK MI...NONE.

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.DISCUSSION... CAD ACROSS PIEDMONT AND WEST MIDLANDS HAS INTENSIFIED A BIT THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. WARM FRONT ALONG COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT...RUC SUGGEST FRONT WILL NOT REACH CAE BY 12Z. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SE. SFC ANAL SHOWING GOOD CAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONDS/UPSTATE SC WITH TEMP GRAD OF 10 DEG BTWN GRD AND CAE. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND VAD WINDS SHOWING NE/E WINDS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK. TEMPS OVER NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY. THINK WINDS WILL COME AROUND AS PER ETA. WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. FRI WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING DEEP LAYER WINDS BECOME STRONG WITH SFC GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY MAY BE LIMITED WITH PCPN/CLOUDS...FOR NOW WILL PUT T IN THE FCST. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY.

MON-THU. UPPER TROF ALG THE E COAST SUN MORNING MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGGS IN THE SW U.S. SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN SRN LA TUE AM AND MOVES EWD ENDING UP OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY WED AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER FROPA. NCEP ENSEMBLES INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND TUE NGT. RAIN SHOULD END WED AFTN. WILL LOWER MOS TEMPS FOR TUE AS CAD LKLY TO DEVELOP.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLUMBIA 44 66 44 52 / 50 100 80 10 AUGUSTA 45 67 43 53 / 50 100 80 10 SUMTER 46 67 44 52 / 50 100 90 10 ORANGEBURG 49 67 45 53 / 50 100 80 10 &&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. &&

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19/19



.DISCUSSION SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SE. SFC ANAL SHOWING GOOD CAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONDS/UPSTATE SC WITH TEMP GRAD OF 10 DEG BTWN GRD AND CAE. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND VAD WINDS SHOWING NE/E WINDS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK. TEMPS OVER NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY. THINK WINDS WILL COME AROUND AS PER ETA. WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. FRI WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING DEEP LAYER WINDS BECOME STRONG WITH SFC GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY MAY BE LIMITED WITH PCPN/CLOUDS...FOR NOW WILL PUT T IN THE FCST. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY.

MON-THU. UPPER TROF ALG THE E COAST SUN MORNING MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGGS IN THE SW U.S. SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN SRN LA TUE AM AND MOVES EWD ENDING UP OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY WED AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER FROPA. NCEP ENSEMBLES INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND TUE NGT. RAIN SHOULD END WED AFTN. WILL LOWER MOS TEMPS FOR TUE AS CAD LKLY TO DEVELOP.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLUMBIA 49 66 44 52 / 50 100 80 10 AUGUSTA 49 67 43 53 / 50 100 80 10 SUMTER 49 67 44 52 / 50 100 90 10 ORANGEBURG 50 67 45 53 / 50 100 80 10 &&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. &&

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25/25



WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING OUT WEST AND ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FROM THE SOUTEAST WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN SOME SPOTS TODAY.

RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IN EXCESS OF AN INCH COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL KEEP WATCH IN TACK. THE MOST VUNERABLE AREAS INITIALLY WILL BE OUT WEST...WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS THE HIGHEST AND ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

XTND...SAT-THU

LTL CHG WAS MADE TO THE XTND PCKG. AFTR THE CURRENT SYSTEM EXITS AREA COLD HIGH PRES WL OVERSPREAD THE RGN FOR THE WKND AND INTO ERLY PART OF NEXT WK. NEXT CHC OF WINTRY WX LOOMS FOR TUE/WED AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THE CONTINUED ACTIVE SRN STREAM OF THE JET. AFTR THAT HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THU.

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.LWX... DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONES MDZ002>005. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONES MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONES VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 11AM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE.

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