Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/07/04


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 850 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE STEADY PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE ONLY HOLD OUT IS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHICH WILL SEE THE RAIN END BY MIDNIGHT. SO WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AND THE WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THINK TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS WHICH WILL SEE THE EFFECT OF GOING FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE JERSEY COAST. ALSO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW. SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A RESPITE THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE. WILL JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE RESIDUAL RIVER RISES. STILL A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS. BUT SINCE NO NEW AREAS WILL BE WARNED FOR STANDARD FLOODING... HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LETTING THE FLOOD WATCH GO.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE +13C AT 2KFT...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS PROCESS WITH A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY LATE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH MIDLEVEL LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT THE WAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PIVOTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOMORROW EVENING. WITH ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 35KT...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW DRYING AND A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONVERSELY...UPSLOPE BLEED-OVER WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

LONG TERM...

SAT NGT UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS CWA WITH SOME CLDS AND A SLGT CHC SW- ON THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN SUN AND MON. SUNSHINE AND A WARMER AMS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS MID 40S. DO NOT SEE TEMPS REACHING 50 AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NEXT PSBL WX SYSTEM COMES TUE INTO WED. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS HAS DC AREA IN A GAP NOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR BRANCH LOW AND THE SRN BRANCH LOW. WILL LEAVE A LOW POP CHANCE IN FCST AT TIME AND USE ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THEN WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS BUILD MORE CONFIDENCE. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN THU BUT 5H TROF IS STILL OVER THE REGION THRU FRI.

&&

.LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.

$$ STRONG/ROGOWSKI/WATSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 430 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT): ...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE +13C AT 2KFT...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS PROCESS WITH A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY LATE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH MIDLEVEL LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT THE WAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PIVOTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOMORROW EVENING. WITH ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 35KT...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW DRYING AND A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONVERSELY...UPSLOPE BLEED-OVER WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ROGOWSKI

&&

.LONG TERM...

SAT NGT UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS CWA WITH SOME CLDS AND A SLGT CHC SW- ON THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN SUN AND MON. SUNSHINE AND A WARMER AMS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS MID 40S. DO NOT SEE TEMPS REACHING 50 AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NEXT PSBL WX SYSTEM COMES TUE INTO WED. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS HAS DC AREA IN A GAP NOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR BRANCH LOW AND THE SRN BRANCH LOW. WILL LEAVE A LOW POP CHANCE IN FCST AT TIME AND USE ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THEN WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS BUILD MORE CONFIDENCE. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN THU BUT 5H TROF IS STILL OVER THE REGION THRU FRI.

WATSON

&&

.LWX... DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ002>005. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE.

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 1150 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY CONTINUE...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

KIAD AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE +5 TO +8C TEMPERATURES IN THE 800 TO 950MB LAYER...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS PROCESS. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ROGOWSKI

&&

.LWX... DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES MDZ002>005. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE.

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 1030 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE WARM FRONT FROM MAKING MUCH FURTHER PROGRESS NORTH FROM ACROSS LONG ISLAND. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN STILL BEING REPORTED. DON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES. MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. &&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND. RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND FLOODING NO LONGER EXPECTED SO WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL LET THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 07Z. &&

***************PREVIOUS 820 PM DISCUSSION******************

.DISCUSSION...

SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM... NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI. &&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z. HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT. &&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET...SO WILL KEEP FOR ROUGH SEAS. WILL ALSO ADD VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM IN THE FOG. &&

**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-NYC005-047-059-061-081-085-103-119 NJ...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-NJC003-013-017-031-039 CT...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-CTC001-007-009-01 MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ-350-353-355

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 820 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS FROM WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY ZONES THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. &&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET...SO WILL KEEP FOR ROUGH SEAS. WILL ALSO ADD VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM IN THE FOG. &&

***************PREVIOUS 735 PM DISCUSSION******************

.DISCUSSION...

SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM... NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI. &&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ. FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. &&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z. HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT. &&

**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081 NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011 CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012 MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ-350-353-355

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 735 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS FROM WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY ZONES THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. &&

***************PREVIOUS 415 PM DISCUSSION******************

.DISCUSSION...

SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM... NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI. &&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ. FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. &&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z. HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT. &&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUND THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS...AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE SOUND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. THE BROAD S/SE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED RAISE OCEAN WATERS TO 8 TO 10 FT. AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINE OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NE OVER THE WATERS...WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OCEAN AS A STRONG S/SE GRADIENT WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SCA OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TIGHT NW GRADIENT WILL BRING SCA WINDS TO ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE OCEAN...POSSIBLY TOUCHING SCA SEAS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RELAX BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY IN TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WATERS.

COASTAL FLOODING DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM...WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEPARTURES FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS TURN TO A MORE UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION. AS THE GRADIENT TURNS NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PICKS UP DURING LATE SATURDAY...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEPARTURES 1 1/2 TO 2 FT BELOW NORMAL. &&

**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081. NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011. CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012. MARINE...SCA...OCEAN AND LI SOUND...350-353-355-335-330.

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 415 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...WE/LL DROP ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS PACKAGE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...I/LL STILL MENTION SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND FOR TONIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM... NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI. &&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ. FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. &&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z. HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT. &&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUND THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON THE OCEAN...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS...AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE SOUND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS. THE BROAD S/SE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED RAISE OCEAN WATERS TO 8 TO 10 FT. AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINE OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NE OVER THE WATERS...WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OCEAN AS A STRONG S/SE GRADIENT WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SCA OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TIGHT NW GRADIENT WILL BRING SCA WINDS TO ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE OCEAN...POSSIBLY TOUCHING SCA SEAS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RELAX BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY IN TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WATERS.

COASTAL FLOODING DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM...WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEPARTURES FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS TURN TO A MORE UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION. AS THE GRADIENT TURNS NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PICKS UP DURING LATE SATURDAY...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEPARTURES 1 1/2 TO 2 FT BELOW NORMAL. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081. NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011. CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012. MARINE...SCA...OCEAN AND LI SOUND...350-353-355-335-330.

$$

EKH/BG/NV/GC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 115 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO ALMOST ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND FREEZING RAIN INLAND. DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SUFFOLK CTY, LONG ISLAND AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND WARNING CONTINUE. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED AND A FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. &&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z. HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT. &&

.MARINE...ADJUSTED WINDS AND DIRECTION FOR THIS AFTN. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOSING ITS HOLD ON THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...THUS THE INITIAL STAGES OF ERODING THE SHALLOW COLD POOL LEFT BEHIND. AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PCPN...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PICKING UP BY DAYBREAK.

MODELS HAVE COME AROUND INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND THAN AT THE SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. QPF VALUES FROM BOTH THE ETA AND GFS VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND WITH UP TO 2 INCHES. SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...ALL THE WHILE WARM ADVECTION OMEGA/LIFT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MAIN SURFACE LOW INITIALLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET...LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. VERY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEFORE THEN THOUGH...ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST AND ALL SNOW INLAND. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS AN ESE FLOW SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR BY LATE MORNING.

WHILE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 18Z...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. HERE...LOOKING AT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD INCH OF ICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WARRANTS A WARNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NYC AND AND LONG ISLAND WILL BE THE FIRST TO CHANGEOVER BY MID MORNING.

PCPN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPRINKLES LINGERING INTO MIDDAY SAT AS A STRONG VORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH BY 18Z. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN.

A PROGRESSIVE...BUT AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FLOW...COLD AIR NEVER STAYS IN PLACE VERY LONG...MAKING A WINTRY MIX A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THE NEXT EVENT. &&

.PREV MARINE FROM 430 AM...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...IS STARTING TO GIVE WAY TO THE STORM RIGHT NOW. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 10 KTS ALL NIGHT...UNTIL THE 4 AM 44025 OBSERVATION CAME IN AT 14 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND AS A RESULT WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BACKING OFF TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. &&

.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD CREATE SOME URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER STORM WARNING...NYZ067>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...071>081. FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING...NJZ002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...NJZ003>006-011. FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011. CT...WINTER STORM WARNING...CTZ005>006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...CTZ007>012. FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL WATERS... ANZ355-353-350-338-335-330..

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 1110 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2004

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE LAST WAVE SPEEDING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH A DRY SLOT IMPINGING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. 300MB ANALYSIS PLACES A 155KT JET OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH 105KT JETS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO NOTED ARE A LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A 1033MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT...WITH NEAR SURFACE FLOW REMAINING CYCLONIC AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACTING TO ADVECT STRATO CU EASTWARD INTO THE METRO AREAS.

IAD ACARS SOUNDING FROM 1430Z SHOWS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 800-950MB WHEN COMPARED TO 12Z KIAD RAOB RELEASED AROUND 11Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CU WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ACT TO HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.

06Z ETA BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT 35KT OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 30KT OBSERVED AT 800MB ON 1430Z IAD ACARS SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS FOR FLOODING...WITH EMPHASIS NOW BEING PLACED ON ICE JAM IMPACT ON THE RISING RIVERS.

ROGOWSKI

&&

LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.

$$