AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 850 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...
THE STEADY PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE ONLY HOLD OUT IS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHICH WILL SEE THE RAIN END BY MIDNIGHT. SO
WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AND THE WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THINK TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS WHICH WILL SEE THE
EFFECT OF GOING FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE JERSEY COAST. ALSO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW.
SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A RESPITE THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH PRESSURE. WILL JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE RESIDUAL RIVER RISES.
STILL A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS. BUT SINCE NO NEW AREAS WILL BE WARNED FOR STANDARD
FLOODING... HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LETTING THE FLOOD WATCH GO.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE +13C AT
2KFT...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS
COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA.
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY
DEMONSTRATES THIS PROCESS WITH A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A
PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
REMAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY LATE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH MIDLEVEL LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT THE WAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PIVOTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TOMORROW EVENING. WITH ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 35KT...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALSO ALLOW DRYING AND A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVERSELY...UPSLOPE BLEED-OVER WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
BANKED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. ALSO A CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO
SNOW AND ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM...
SAT NGT UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS CWA WITH SOME CLDS AND A SLGT CHC
SW- ON THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN SUN AND MON.
SUNSHINE AND A WARMER AMS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS MID 40S. DO NOT SEE TEMPS REACHING 50 AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NEXT PSBL WX SYSTEM COMES TUE INTO WED. LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS HAS DC AREA IN A GAP NOW BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN POLAR BRANCH LOW AND THE SRN BRANCH LOW. WILL LEAVE A
LOW POP CHANCE IN FCST AT TIME AND USE ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THEN WAIT
TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS BUILD MORE CONFIDENCE. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN
THU BUT 5H TROF IS STILL OVER THE REGION THRU FRI.
&&
.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
$$
STRONG/ROGOWSKI/WATSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 430 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT):
...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE +13C AT
2KFT...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS
COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA.
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY
DEMONSTRATES THIS PROCESS WITH A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A
PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
REMAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY LATE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH MIDLEVEL LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT THE WAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PIVOTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TOMORROW EVENING. WITH ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS OF 35KT...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALSO ALLOW DRYING AND A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVERSELY...UPSLOPE BLEED-OVER WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
BANKED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. ALSO A CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO
SNOW AND ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ROGOWSKI
&&
.LONG TERM...
SAT NGT UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS CWA WITH SOME CLDS AND A SLGT CHC
SW- ON THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN SUN AND MON.
SUNSHINE AND A WARMER AMS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS MID 40S. DO NOT SEE TEMPS REACHING 50 AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NEXT PSBL WX SYSTEM COMES TUE INTO WED. LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS HAS DC AREA IN A GAP NOW BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN POLAR BRANCH LOW AND THE SRN BRANCH LOW. WILL LEAVE A
LOW POP CHANCE IN FCST AT TIME AND USE ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THEN WAIT
TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS BUILD MORE CONFIDENCE. HI PRES RDG BUILDS IN
THU BUT 5H TROF IS STILL OVER THE REGION THRU FRI.
WATSON
&&
.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
MDZ002>005.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
ZONES MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
ZONES VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 1150 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY CONTINUE...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
KIAD AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE +5 TO +8C TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800 TO 950MB LAYER...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY
WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY
CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS
PROCESS. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A
CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ROGOWSKI
&&
.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES MDZ002>005.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 1030 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE WARM FRONT
FROM MAKING MUCH FURTHER PROGRESS NORTH FROM ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN STILL BEING REPORTED. DON'T EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES. MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG ISLAND
LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND. RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND FLOODING NO LONGER EXPECTED SO WILL CANCEL
THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL LET THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 07Z.
&&
***************PREVIOUS 820 PM DISCUSSION******************
.DISCUSSION...
SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS
DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY
OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING
THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA
TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET...SO WILL KEEP FOR
ROUGH SEAS. WILL ALSO ADD VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM IN THE FOG.
&&
**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-NYC005-047-059-061-081-085-103-119
NJ...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-NJC003-013-017-031-039
CT...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV-CTC001-007-009-01
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ-350-353-355
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 820 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS FROM WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY ZONES THROUGH THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE
UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET...SO WILL KEEP
FOR ROUGH SEAS. WILL ALSO ADD VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM IN THE FOG.
&&
***************PREVIOUS 735 PM DISCUSSION******************
.DISCUSSION...
SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS
DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD
WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ.
FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY
OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING
THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA
TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
&&
**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081
NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011
CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ-350-353-355
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 735 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS FROM WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY ZONES THROUGH THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE
UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
***************PREVIOUS 415 PM DISCUSSION******************
.DISCUSSION...
SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS
DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD
WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ.
FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY
OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING
THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA
TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUND
THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON THE
OCEAN...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS...AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE
SOUND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
BANDS. THE BROAD S/SE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED RAISE
OCEAN WATERS TO 8 TO 10 FT. AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINE OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE NE OVER THE WATERS...WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SCA CRITERIA OVER THE
OCEAN AS A STRONG S/SE GRADIENT WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OCEAN. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO SCA OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TIGHT NW GRADIENT WILL BRING SCA WINDS TO
ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO
REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE OCEAN...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
SCA SEAS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
RELAX BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY IN TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
COASTAL FLOODING DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL DEPARTURES FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS TURN TO A
MORE UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION. AS THE GRADIENT TURNS NW AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PICKS UP DURING LATE SATURDAY...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEPARTURES 1 1/2 TO 2 FT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
**************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION******************
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011.
CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012.
MARINE...SCA...OCEAN AND LI SOUND...350-353-355-335-330.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 415 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...WE/LL DROP ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...I/LL STILL
MENTION SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND FOR TONIGHT.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.
SAT...I/LL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MORNING PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ETA/NGM/GFS ALL FORECAST LOW POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING THE MODELS
DIFFER...WITH THE GFS HAVING LOWER POPS. I/LL COMPROMISE A BIT.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...FAIR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE. FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR DAY 7...FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. A FLOOD
WATCH IS UP FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COLDER NORTHERN ZONES. A FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAHWAY RIVER AT SPRINGFIELD, NJ.
FLODD STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY
OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING
THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA
TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUND
THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON THE
OCEAN...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS...AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE
SOUND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
BANDS. THE BROAD S/SE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED RAISE
OCEAN WATERS TO 8 TO 10 FT. AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINE OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE NE OVER THE WATERS...WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SCA CRITERIA OVER THE
OCEAN AS A STRONG S/SE GRADIENT WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OCEAN. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO SCA OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TIGHT NW GRADIENT WILL BRING SCA WINDS TO
ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL ALSO
REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE OCEAN...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
SCA SEAS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
RELAX BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY IN TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
COASTAL FLOODING DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL DEPARTURES FOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS TURN TO A
MORE UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION. AS THE GRADIENT TURNS NW AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PICKS UP DURING LATE SATURDAY...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEPARTURES 1 1/2 TO 2 FT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011.
CT...FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012.
MARINE...SCA...OCEAN AND LI SOUND...350-353-355-335-330.
$$
EKH/BG/NV/GC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
NWS UPTON NY
AFDOKX 115 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD. PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO ALMOST ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND
FREEZING RAIN INLAND. DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SUFFOLK CTY, LONG
ISLAND AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND
WARNING CONTINUE. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED AND A FLOOD STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE PASSING OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
AND CONTINUING UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN A SECOND AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE SET TO MOVE IN AFTER 23Z.
HAVE ONLY FORECAST FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS STILL ACTUALLY
OCCURRING...AT KSWF (FOR THE DURATION) AND KLGA (NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONTINUED FETCH OF COLD AIR OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND). WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE SURFACE WAVES BACKING
THE FLOW ENOUGH AS THEY PASS BY TO PULL IN SUBFREEZING AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND CHANGE P-TYPE BACK TO FZRA AT NYC AREA
TERMINALS...PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
FORECAST. ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF LLWS MAINLY FROM KJFK EAST...NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST SINCE ETA BUFKIT AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...ADJUSTED WINDS AND DIRECTION FOR THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOSING ITS HOLD
ON THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE
FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...THUS THE INITIAL STAGES OF
ERODING THE SHALLOW COLD POOL LEFT BEHIND. AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF
PCPN...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...PICKING UP BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND THAN AT
THE SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. QPF VALUES FROM BOTH THE ETA AND GFS VERY
SIMILAR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH UP TO 2 INCHES. SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...ALL THE
WHILE WARM ADVECTION OMEGA/LIFT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. MAIN SURFACE LOW INITIALLY BACK OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION FIRST
6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR
JET...LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY.
VERY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COUPLING JET STRUCTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEFORE THEN THOUGH...ENOUGH
COLD AIR AROUND TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST AND ALL SNOW
INLAND. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS AN ESE FLOW SCOURS OUT
MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR BY LATE MORNING.
WHILE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 18Z...THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBFREEZING AIR ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR A
PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT. HERE...LOOKING AT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF ORANGE AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES. THIS COMBINATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WARRANTS A
WARNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXING WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FROM MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NYC AND AND LONG ISLAND WILL BE THE FIRST TO
CHANGEOVER BY MID MORNING.
PCPN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPRINKLES LINGERING INTO
MIDDAY SAT AS A STRONG VORT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH BY
18Z. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR SUN.
A PROGRESSIVE...BUT AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
A MODERATING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SOUTHERN BRANCH
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ONCE
AGAIN...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FLOW...COLD AIR NEVER STAYS IN
PLACE VERY LONG...MAKING A WINTRY MIX A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THE
NEXT EVENT.
&&
.PREV MARINE FROM 430 AM...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...IS STARTING
TO GIVE WAY TO THE STORM RIGHT NOW. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 10 KTS
ALL NIGHT...UNTIL THE 4 AM 44025 OBSERVATION CAME IN AT 14 KNOTS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND
AS A RESULT WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH
THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE BACKING OFF TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES
THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND SHOULD CREATE SOME URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING...NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...071>081.
FLOOD WATCH...NYZ071>081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING...NJZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...NJZ003>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH...NJZ003>006-011.
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING...CTZ005>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...CTZ007>012.
FLOOD WATCH...CTZ009>012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL WATERS...
ANZ355-353-350-338-335-330..
$$